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Paul

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Para 12z is a corker as well, look at the intensity of the Scandinavian high.

GFSPARAEU12_384_1.png

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^ PTB 20 is about as perfect as you can get with the delicate balance of the atlantic approaching the UK but not breaking down the cold air in situ...

If only...

yeah, brings back memories of November 2010 archivesnh-2010-11-24-0-0.png January 2010 archivesnh-2010-1-3-0-0.png December 2009 archivesnh-2009-12-20-0-0.png to name a few. 🤞we can get a Greenland high for much if not all the upcoming winter (if not then hopefully a scandi high/retrogression) 😍 ❄️

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Para 12z is a corker as well, look at the intensity of the Scandinavian high.

GFSPARAEU12_384_1.png

D'oh, I've been really following that run, after the super 4 wave pattern, on Meteociel and you've just given away the ending!   😥

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Whilst I appreciate the excitement of the current outlooks. The only real use I can see for them is in cooling the continent down ready for any possible easterlies down the line.  Cracking winter synoptics at the beginning of November seem like wasted winter synoptics for the uk to me really  Last third of November a la 2010 and I,d be much more excited. I remember a cold and snowy start to November 1980 but it didn't herald anything special at all.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Cracking winter synoptics at the beginning of November seem like wasted winter synoptics for the uk

After such a warm autumn so far...i'm just happy to see some cold crisp weather on the way for a change..hope we get a direct hit from the Arctic this time next week!😉❄️

Edited by Frosty.

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ECM mean, first T144, nod towards Greenland:

image.thumb.jpg.20e36e161d0a8a6587bdb01a910bd3c5.jpg

T192, northerly incoming:

image.thumb.jpg.f754a472b1d518adf5593cc58a213b61.jpg

Signal collapses later in an average of solutions, but really promising to day 8.

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

After such a warm autumn so far...i'm just happy to see some cold crisp weather on the way for a change..hope we get a direct hit from the Arctic this time next week!😉❄️

Don,t get me wrong Frosty I love cold and snow just like your good self but would just rather see the suggested synoptics a fortnight or three weeks later. Here,s hoping the trop stays disconnected from the strat vortex wise as we head into real winter in a few weeks time.

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Thought I'd have an early foray into this thread. Interesting to see arctic sea ice recovery has been particularly sluggish in the last few weeks:

image.thumb.png.3c1f7d061e911146230bdad96cbb8238.png

Perhaps this may help promote a more -AO in November?

Hopefully the GFS is onto something in the mid range, if the high migrates to Greenland this would release some pretty cold air our way:

GFSOPEU12_171_1.png

Though in the mid term we may have another Atlantic hurricane which could throw another spanner in the works:

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

One thing I like about Mid November -January is that we don't need amazing synoptics for serious cold due to the weak strength of the sun. Get some cold air in place with slack winds and the cold can quickly build... not too long to wait now but will we see the first decently negative December NAO since 2010? 

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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Thought I'd have an early foray into this thread. Interesting to see arctic sea ice recovery has been particularly sluggish in the last few weeks:

Perhaps this may help promote a more -AO in November?

Hopefully the GFS is onto something in the mid range, if the high migrates to Greenland this would release some pretty cold air our way:

GFSOPEU12_171_1.png

Though in the mid term we may have another Atlantic hurricane which could throw another spanner in the works:

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

One thing I like about Mid November -January is that we don't need amazing synoptics for serious cold due to the weak strength of the sun. Get some cold air in place with slack winds and the cold can quickly build... not too long to wait now but will we see the first decently negative December NAO since 2010? 

YES

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49 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Direct hit on tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean..lovely jubbly..or perfick!!😀☃️😀😍❄️☃️..I'm ready for some cold!!!😉

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

 

 

 

 

Fairly recently we had a December to remember (hint; not 2015) perhaps it's time for a November to remember?

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Like some others on here I wasn't worried about the upturn in the speed of the stratospheric vortex.  At the moment if the two vortexes are to become one, the strat one is going to have to give, here GFS forecast, zonal mean zonal wind at 10hpa, downozing, word I've just invented, heading in a downwards direction. 

image.thumb.jpg.e33905f9cfc2b4ccda5be82306fbd12c.jpg

The tropospheric vortex is in a right mess.  BTW can we have a strat thread for this year, please?

Edited by Mike Poole

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The UKMO 168 looks great-

GFS 18z is already sharpening up so should be close @168!

1913216B-387B-4ADB-8777-F7259D2A2095.thumb.jpeg.e96faff6bf0c3db4fa3285d0af3c72d4.jpeg

 

18z 

C6D52517-36E1-40A8-A5B8-5722C8B751F5.thumb.jpeg.415439dcc3c5377a1739c5da88667ebd.jpegAF446026-CCFA-4B08-84F0-222CFC9792BD.thumb.jpeg.24ceb6635db0add002c35d26c12a0ba2.jpeg

Edited by Steve Murr

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Much less inclination for the trough to move into Greenland and flatten the pattern on this run - its just sitting there fueling the ridge - this is going to be quite a potent N'ly for Oct / Nov - a stonker coming up,

gfsnh-0-156_jyx2.png

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It's a great early start to the winter shenanigans this year. I am really not sure if the possible cold shot at the end of October is a good sign or not for our cold winter prospects though. The downside to all this is Siberia is going to experience a bit of a heat fest. Not a good sign imo. 

Edited by blizzard81

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Frontal snow about to come down the country from the North.

GFSOPEU18_216_2.png

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Looking at the Gfs 18z operational this time next week and that weekend would feel like winter!:cold:night all.:smile:

18_156_naptypemslp.png

18_165_mslp850.png

18_165_ukthickness850.png

18_183_preciptype.png

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The latest gfs at 168 shows the high punching through into southern Greenland and north Canada,it's uncanny this to see part of the pv over Scandi/west Russia instead of over N America

gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.d7133ebd347bba9939b1292b1ae71306.png

the latest sets of gefs/ecm ens shows a marked drop off in temps for later next week,the mean was flatlining at the 0 degree isotherm line a day a go,now that has changed today by getting below that

graphe_ens3_scq8.thumb.gif.dfc12888f2fde14b775bc0e9e4078cd6.gifgraphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.0c761ac531bb111f6c5e6e81ea87b28a.png

the NAO/AO still tanking negative too,the cpc 6-10 and 8-14 day 500 mb anomoly charts are pretty similar to what has been forecasted from the last couple of days with the hp cell still in the atlantic

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.c5e19ceef640779349ca15ee05ab15a6.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.0f02fefec78bdc1d866d9edb0de3687c.gif

610day_03.thumb.gif.c1251c106dcad1cb13b05df823cf6298.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.551871d60a1113a7a9ed8c0e9178dd0e.gif

and finally the latest news from Michael Ventrice:cold:

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Heavy snow in wales across to the SE 🤔

3841DDF5-97F1-4831-8C27-975166248D4D.thumb.png.1810cd9a02b49d3e118a1e7f6b777ada.png

Edited by Steve Murr

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Hello folks. Excelent NWP outputs regarding cold even the met have it on their 6-15 15-30day forecast first I hope these charts comes off as for snow I don't think any low level snow from midlands south is going to happen yet. Intresting met outlook from UK met today for the first half of November now I know there is a met thread but if I can put today's forecast in.

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Nov 2018 to Saturday 17 Nov 2018:


A north to northwesterly scenario is looking likely during this period, with changeable conditions dominating across northern parts at first. However, conditions may turn more widely unsettled at times, with heaviest rain and stronger winds more likely to be across the north. By mid-November there are signals for high pressure to develop to the north of the UK, with 'blocked' conditions becoming established. This may result in fog and frost becoming more likely, especially in the north. Meanwhile, more changeable conditions may become established across the south and west, with some rain at times. Temperatures are likely to be mostly below normal, with a greater likelihood of frost as well as some snow for higher ground in the north. Any milder spells are likely to be short-lived.

Updated: 15:15 on Fri 19 Oct 2018 BST. So Met are going for part of Nov to be blocked possibly wich is what the ECMWF 30day is also showing.

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There is a load of stunners in the GEFS suite - snow.

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is a load of stunners in the GEFS suite - snow.

Yes indeed, im beginning to ponder if higher hills near us might get a dusting as we head later into next week, if there are any showers about of course.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes indeed, im beginning to ponder if higher hills near us might get a dusting as we head later into next week, if there are any showers about of course.

There might even be a heavy snow event if a wave develops.

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13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is a load of stunners in the GEFS suite - snow.

P9 has 2 goes tempresult_qek2.gif P11 gensnh-11-1-336.png P12 tempresult_ctm9.gif P14gensnh-14-1-216.png P15 weaker flow but high up towards Greenland gensnh-15-1-324.png  P16 and P17 with strong northerly's gensnh-16-1-216.png  gensnh-17-1-228.png P18 tempresult_zrb0.gif Hopefully these kinds of charts come into the reliable time frame and quite a few of us could see some early snow.

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