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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

very impressive gefs later week 2 when viewed in tandem with eps clusters. my take is that for a proper early winter blast, we will require the catalyst from the other side of the NH. we have our block building over scandi - to get it to retrogress towards greeny or to deliver a deep cold pool around its southern side will need an upstream amplification to work across the polar field - this is quite feasible 

Which makes it all the more confusing that Exeter jumped ship to a more zonal set up later in the month.

Fascinating watching though Blue!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

Trust me, that's not a tropospheric vortex that's about to set up shop for the duration. More the exact opposite, particularly when you look at what's going on in the stratosphere. 

Think lorries about to jacknife.

I certainly will Stewart.

26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Stewart, must admit Febs post had me totally confused..

I did'nt say it was a likely outcome, i just  said it needs watching, i am still in the cold spell camp (might take a few attempts though but i can live with that) despite Met Offices 30 dayer, 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Which makes it all the more confusing that Exeter jumped ship to a more zonal set up later in the month.

Fascinating watching though Blue!

 …… beyond day 16, its perfectly feasible for the scandi block to sink ssw under a strengthening atlantic jet ……  that's their current call. week 3 on the ec 46 this evening is going to be interesting - we don't get  to see clustering on that ……….

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I certainly will Stewart.

I did'nt say it was a likely outcome, i just  said it needs watching, i am still in the cold spell camp (might take a few attempts though but i can live with that) despite Met Offices 30 dayer, 

Nno worries Feb mate, TBH EC looks a bit flatter to me at 168 this evening...lets see how it pans out..

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Time for EC to throw out a horror show now 168hr 

Screenshot_20181108-183806_Chrome.jpg

T192 is ok . Not as good as the 00z but to be expected. Variations of the same theme . 

IMG_2765.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Horror show?  in line with most of the other models …..

In any case its a very meridional pattern by 216.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

perfect vertical advection...

0239E037-5D85-4113-8435-DA4EB36658E3.thumb.png.01a548303594842c318f692fda381c9f.png

quite something when such a powerful LP system is simply told to turn around. Positive to see

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Very nice day 10 chart and I am looking forward to a nice mild spell around mid month as sceuro ridge builds in.

Day 9/10 ECM nicely shows the warm air heading into the pole and the cold polar air beginning to be displaced into lower latitudes.

ECH0-216.GIF?08-0ECH0-240.GIF?08-0

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Horror show?  in line with most of the other models …..

Hey ho it looks good at day 10  but didn't look quite as good @168hr when compared to the others but keep her lit party on to the beat of the drum.

Screenshot_20181108-185812_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181108-185905_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181108-185833_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181108-190258_Chrome.jpg

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

FV3 looking like a decently oriented block at T336:

image.thumb.jpg.89c98df96cefc42cf9cf35bd13b50aa7.jpg

It drifts east thereafter rather than retrogressing  but that is well out of even the semi-reliable.

The strat disturbance increasing tonight at T384:

image.thumb.jpg.4269e67e879242b0ade7491b71b58358.jpg

Overall, the view from the 12s has to be positive, verging on very positive for cold later this month or early next.  In my view we are miles away from any zonal pattern on two fronts, first the state of the trop vortex, and second increasing signs of pressure on the strat vortex.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Mid summer we'd be baking with a chart like that!

ECMOPUK12_240_2.thumb.png.68de4d7a0c3e8749835bc0965387b175.png

You do love a summer chart SS lol . It's what happens after is the interesting thing . All that WAA shooting up into the pole , and all the cold air spilling into the mid latitudes  ( well that's the plan anyway ) . Look how far the WAA gets , it's crazy . 

IMG_2768.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Mid summer we'd be baking with a chart like that!

ECMOPUK12_240_2.thumb.png.68de4d7a0c3e8749835bc0965387b175.png

yes, just posted that in other model thread, reckon early 40's SS? for east

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM ensemble mean at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.8efe1bc1c5e42b3b5e2802c238cbb0a1.jpg

Obviously this an average chart, but I would suggest that it pretty much nails a Scandi high at day 10, the question is what happens then.  Up until day 10 UK is going to experience mild weather, there's a good chance of a sudden flip to cold I think, when?  I'm going for ~26 Nov...anyone want to place a bet as to when (of course, if) a flip to cold happens for the UK?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

I don’t know what to think or what say,discuss!

DAB5609A-33A7-442E-B239-B5CA68832B2F.jpeg

Edited by fromey
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