Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

384 hours out or not, what a stonker of a chart hemispherically.

Yes Aaron, but whilst that is probably at the great end of the scale on what could happen, the ensembles have moved back towards good hemispheric patterns over the last few runs so a cold spell in about a months time isn't pie in the sky stuff, if some of the op runs a couple of days ago verify then yes you could then pretty much write off proper blocking this side of xmas.

[northwestsnow]

Oh my im like a giddy kipper afterEd posted that dense freezing fog chart!!

I really hope the euro high can ridge far enough north ..

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes Aaron, but whilst that is probably at the great end of the scale on what could happen, the ensembles have moved back towards good hemispheric patterns over the last few runs so a cold spell in about a months time isn't pie in the sky stuff, if some of the op runs a couple of days ago verify then yes you could then pretty much write off proper blocking this side of xmas.

Im with you Feb... im thinking how amazing that Exeter call from days ago could turn out to be.. Glosea?

[bluearmy]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Why you say that Blue?

cos the specific for a greeny ridge has already gone on the following run so it wont 'count down', run by run …….what is clear is that the gfs op is picking up some notable upstream n pacific ridging later in week 2. with our semi permanent sceuro block this side of the NH, things could get interesting but we are a fair way from anything more than that for the time being. would be good to match ec clusters with some amplified gfs ops and would be even better to see the gfsp showing wintry potential rather than the gfs. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

cos the specific for a greeny ridge has already gone on the following run so it wont 'count down', run by run …….what is clear is that the gfs op is picking up some notable upstream n pacific ridging later in week 2. with our semi permanent sceuro block this side of the NH, things could get interesting but we are a fair way from anything more than that for the time being. would be good to match ec clusters with some amplified gfs ops and would be even better to see the gfsp showing wintry potential rather than the gfs. 

Thanks Blue , i do enjoy your musings..

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Best 384h anomalie chart I’ve seen so far this season.

A fantastic chart indeed...But as we know, the more spectacular these 'time tunnel' charts become, the chances of verification shrink toward those of anything coming from Mars...A million-to-one, they say...? 

Edited November 7, 2018 by Ed Stone

[ITSY]

Goodness gracious, some fairly notable solutions on offer this evening: 

 

 

 

As ever, there's a big mix and those are some of the outstanding ones. But the one constant theme to take away from the low res runs - and that's all we can take away from them given the timeframe - is the sheer pre-eminence of high pressure (either over the UK, Scandi, Iceland, or Greenland). There are only 2 or 3 runs without a massive block of HP somewhere in our vicinity. That is all I need at the moment, given the background signals, to feel increasingly optimistic about what could develop in the medium term. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im with you Feb... im thinking how amazing that Exeter call from days ago could turn out to be.. Glosea?

Yes, initially i was thinking E'ly possible but without cold uppers late November or cold foggy high over us.

 

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

cos the specific for a greeny ridge has already gone on the following run so it wont 'count down', run by run …….what is clear is that the gfs op is picking up some notable upstream n pacific ridging later in week 2. with our semi permanent sceuro block this side of the NH, things could get interesting but we are a fair way from anything more than that for the time being. would be good to match ec clusters with some amplified gfs ops and would be even better to see the gfsp showing wintry potential rather than the gfs. 

Do you rate that model?, i dont study it myself enough to give an informed opinion, personally i would like to see the cold clusters getting bigger and the graphs falling off a cliff more than anything.

[Geordiesnow]

20 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

If you 'cared' to view...or look @ other formats posted...ie mjo phasing strat develops...

Then quoting latter frames of a raw..operational carry weight...and balance.

Its not a 1 hit wonder of a possible/probabile evolution.

It mass trending....even expectation of eventual exactions!

Edit:..

And this is indeed the hunt 4 cold thread.

So id like your exactions for balance of late nov/dec likelyhood...as what been elaborated is far from meteorlogical fiction!???...

Whilst I respect background signals that could reflect our weather(just like the SSW did before the beast from the east), I'm always coy about reading too much into it and then cherry picking a chart(especially over 300 hours away!) to try and come with some sort of linkage between the two. Plus I been on this forum more than long enough to know that members will pick out a period where something cold may happen but does not come to fruition so will put it further back to another timeframe and so on. It could be cold at the end of the month but it could equally be average or well above average, nobody knows at this range.

Reality is at the moment, the trend is for average to just slightly above and then perhaps well above average via a Euro high but at this range that is not a certainty and details will vary from run to run. One thing the models do agree on is the PV to gain strength over the pole but as I say, I would not be surprised if the GFS is somewhat overdoing it. 

Hopefully we will see some cold weather but at the moment there are only minimal signs(and that is putting very nicely) of that happening anytime soon. 

[Mucka]

As regards model unreliability post 144, yes of course, I don't think anyone posting FI charts is saying that is how things will look, we are simply informing of current model trends.

It is also worth noting that generally the models are more likely to return to climatological norms rather than deviate from them in deep FI so when they do deviate it is because there are forcing background signals and these have been discussed by knowledgeable folk in other threads.

It is very reasonable to expect the pattern to remain amplified until such time conditions allow for more sustainable blocking that can bring cold end of Nov/early Dec. Unfortunately there is no way to know such blocking will be appropriately aligned to bring a good cold spell but we can know the chances of a cold spella re much increased from the standard climatalogical norm for the UK before the Northern Hemisphere Winter begins.

Finally nobody predicted a cold December either, only that cold spell chances are increased over the average.

 

All of the above is also subject to change but for now the signal is for increased prospect of high lat blocking late Nov/early Dec 

Edited November 7, 2018 by Mucka

[Always a red]

23 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Well this is the hunt for cold model  thread isn't it so I don't see any problem with that in the slightest & I have no idea why you you feel the need to moan about posters who are using this thread correctly!?? 

Seriously, did you confuse this model thread with the main one or what? 

Great post but don`t waste your breath, firmly in the SS camp this fellow!!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

45 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Four different posts from 4 different members posting a 384 hour low resolution GFS chart to illustrate about this so called cold potential, I think that is straw clutching in the extreme. I don't know if its still the case now as it used to be but the GFS goes into a lower resolution(so prone to be less accurate) after 240 hours so for any new members out there, those charts you just seen posted are completely irrelevant and meaningless.

Instead of cold, we could be looking at November 2018 potentially being one of the warmest on record giving the current outputs and the potential for a very warm(for the time of year) southerly which the models are keep on hinting at in the medium term. 

Or equally we could be facing a slightly above average month helped by possible cooler last third. No one knows what will happen after 120t but this is the hunt for cold thread after all.

Edited November 7, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[Seasonal Trim]

1 minute ago, Always a red said:

Great post but don`t waste your breath, firmly in the SS camp this fellow!!

I don't agree with what Geordiesnow posted, but this sort of response is uncalled for. 

[Always a red]

1 minute ago, Nizzer said:

I don't agree with what Geordiesnow posted, but this sort of response is uncalled for. 

So its ok for posters to call out several people for posting FI charts?? what part of `hunt for cold thread` do people not understand???

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Always a red said:

Great post but don`t waste your breath, firmly in the SS camp this fellow!!

No idea what the SS camp is but I'm in the camp that unless cold trends pop up in the medium term then any long range projections have to be taken with caution really. And imo picking a chart at 384 hours out from the GFS is cherry picking to say the least. I will also add, I hate the idea of 2 seperate threads, its been tried before and they never work as one thread becomes isolated and obviously it would'nt be this one!

 

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Whilst I respect background signals that could reflect our weather(just like the SSW did before the beast from the east), I'm always coy about reading too much into it and then cherry picking a chart(especially over 300 hours away!) to try and come with some sort of linkage between the two. Plus I been on this forum more than long enough to know that members will pick out a period where something cold may happen but does not come to fruition so will put it further back to another timeframe and so on. It could be cold at the end of the month but it could equally be average or well above average, nobody knows at this range.

Reality is at the moment, the trend is for average to just slightly above and then perhaps well above average via a Euro high but at this range that is not a certainty and details will vary from run to run. One thing the models do agree on is the PV to gain strength over the pole but as I say, I would not be surprised if the GFS is somewhat overdoing it. 

Hopefully we will see some cold weather but at the moment there are only minimal signs(and that is putting very nicely) of that happening anytime soon. 

Swearbox, now!

A question: what's with the idea that one cannot be hunting for cold and be realistic, at the same time?

Edited November 7, 2018 by Ed Stone

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do you rate that model?, i dont study it myself enough to give an informed opinion, personally i would like to see the cold clusters getting bigger and the graphs falling off a cliff more than anything.

i believe it was recently verifying top for T192. anecdotally, it seems to be doing better than the gfs op and it didn't go for the mid November undercut like other models did recently 

[matt111]

I don’t post in this thread much as I leave that to the people who understand the models more but I enjoy reading it, I thought the idea of separate threads was to stop the mild vs cold we usually end up with? 

Anyway as said above the hunt for cold has to start somewhere.  

[coldie]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

I will also add, I hate the idea of 2 seperate threads, its been tried before and they never work as one thread becomes isolated and obviously it would'nt be this one!

 

If you don't like what's being posted in here you could always use the other thread instead you know? it won't be so isolated then will it. Anyway I see plenty of posts in the other thread on a daily basis, so tbh i'm not sure what your on about.

[Always a red]

7 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

No idea what the SS camp is but I'm in the camp that unless cold trends pop up in the medium term then any long range projections have to be taken with caution really. And imo picking a chart at 384 hours out from the GFS is cherry picking to say the least. I will also add, I hate the idea of 2 seperate threads, its been tried before and they never work as one thread becomes isolated and obviously it would'nt be this one!

 

I don`t disagree with everything you say and apologise for being a bit sarky but if there was ever a place where 384 charts can be posted without the usual (in general) ridicule then surely this is the exact thread, isn`t it?

The different threads people a chance to discuss their own preferences in more detail IMO anyway

Edited November 7, 2018 by Always a red

[booferking]

As has been said numorus times background singnals etc are there and after all this is "The Hunt For Cold thread"  it doesn't get anymore simplier than that.

Edited November 7, 2018 by booferking

[Polar Maritime]

Let's move on to Model Discussion "Hunt for cold" please.

Edited November 7, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[tight isobar]

Back 2 raw basics...

Ecm..

Western seaboard ridge...meets mass/euro-russian pen- punch...

Vortex split mid...latter frames !!?

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Always a red said:

I don`t disagree with everything you say and apologise for being a bit sarky but if there was ever a place where 384 carts can be posted without the usual (in general) ridicule then surely this is the exact thread, isn`t it?

The different threads people a chance to discuss their own preferences in more detail IMO anyway

It was more of a point that I found it rather amusing the same 384 hour chart got posted by 4 different members to try and get the point that the end of the month may turn colder because background signals may favour this, it is kind of cherry picking and it(sadly) shows at the moment how poor the first half of November is more than likely will be in terms of cold weather.

Anyways whilst its the hunt for cold thread, I think some more general weather discussion should be allowed and we will see if the ECM follow suits with the Euro high forming and the mild southerlies to boot. That said, if we can somehow orientate the high in such a way that the isobars are further apart and more of an ESE'ly drift as a result we may see some colder weather in terms of fog and frost despite warm 850 temps.  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So we now watch, sit and wait. I posted many times and days ago that last 3rd and late month will see a cold pattern take hold and to look fo E/NE feed. I was pulled up for not producing charts to support, well they weren’t reaching that far and of course I don’t use them to forecast.  But maybe when I can I’ll post some.  But I remain in same call. The switch likely to be swift, ushering in an early cold start to winter during December.  Deep FI on GFS on more than one run now sniffing at this....so we watch sit and wait.  Let the ‘real’ Hunt commence!

 

BFTP

Edited November 7, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST