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Paul

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

yes frosty could be some early season snow for hilly areas soon,is this the winter that finally delivers 

Didn’t know it didn’t last winter. What are you demanding/hopeing for? 

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144 is VERY sharp with the amplification & trough

Surely the first boom chart of the year !

F85AE2D7-8B4C-4CE5-859A-63FE7EA0C287.thumb.png.950e06c5abf78a8e2c71e0b97791ea2c.png

Agreed steve, if this was showing up in Dec we’d have pages of comments. PV no signs of ramping up just yet, although not sure when that really gets going in a warmer/standard winter 

Edited by Ali1977

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42 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Didn’t know it didn’t last winter. What are you demanding/hopeing for? 

that we get a proper decent easterly in the  depth of winter months not march like this year and 2013,imagine how frigid it would have been if it had happened in early jan 

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3 hours ago, carinthian said:

ECM showing a second more potent attack from the North next weekend to include the UK. Also, sort up ties in with the UKMO worded forecast that covers this extended period. Will be interesting to see whether the ECM model this evening holds this positioning or whether GFS brings back the North European trough in focus towards the British Isles. Just for good measure our snow accumulation forecasts have been upgraded to 35cm by 31 St October, still in the 40% probability rate which is still high to medium for this time span.

C

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Looks like latest UKMO run firming up on a second attempt to push the Arctic Front/North European Trough closer to the British Isles for next weekend .

C

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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Interesting last few days in the outputs.

A lot of chopping and changing with the high pressure , as ever much of this caused by what happens towards the ne USA.

The models have been spilling a bit too much energy east over the high hence we’ve seen the high flattened with the coldest air shunted further east .

There is a trend tonight to take less energy over the top but the UKMO is even more bullish in that respect.

The GFS and UKMO are in good agreement on the overall pattern at day 6 but if you look at the Europe and Atlantic view rather than the NH one you can clearly see the much more negative tilt to the UKMO low towards Newfoundland with the high more displaced to the nw .

This more amplified solution means the cold source is further west .

We await the ECM

 

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24 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

that we get a proper decent easterly in the  depth of winter months not march like this year and 2013,imagine how frigid it would have been if it had happened in early jan 

think it was frigid enough - days of 6 - 8ft snow drifts and it wasn't half cold too - how much worse do you want?

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28 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

that we get a proper decent easterly in the  depth of winter months not march like this year and 2013,imagine how frigid it would have been if it had happened in early jan 

Oh it was frigid & delivered.

Screenshot_20181019-175430_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20181019-175641_Chrome.jpg

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Just reading the NCEP discussion . They’re happy with a more negative tilt to low pressure towards New England , also they talk about a high amplitude pattern over Canada .

This does give an opportunity for a cold shot into the UK.

Preferably we’d like to see any low pressure deepen in that NE area and with that neg tilt this could help build a better ridge to the nw .

Its a bit early for anything of note but mainland Europe can cool rapidly at this time of year so a cold shot and some early snow towards Scandi and Northern Europe could help us down the line .

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GEFS 12z P19 at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.ce8e05519a37c9f32c681dfc0680efd2.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.97da62f2ed490adb41a068d490947445.jpg

Cold incoming, direct hit!  Nice to see these sorts of charts on offer at the day 8 range, long way to go to land one!

Edit, also P12 at T288:

image.thumb.jpg.78f9c965a4aa9d18a68bab7088318002.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.6f23b53cc63528f0f07daf4b320f8a59.jpg

A bone crunching Halloween 💀

Edited by Mike Poole

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1 hour ago, andymusic said:

think it was frigid enough - days of 6 - 8ft snow drifts and it wasn't half cold too - how much worse do you want?

The snow wasn’t that heavy in the Home Counties around West London and we could do and deserve proper deep snow for a change 😊❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

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6 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Always good to have a bit of Autumn buzz in the forum, at this time of year it’s nice to get some frosty crisp sunshine and that certainly looks possible later this month. Who knows what winter will bring, an earlier tweet from Ian F wasn’t promising for early Winter, but at this range I’ll keep my fingers crossed that the METOs thoughts are proved wrong. I do hope we aren’t needing an SSW for a chance of a cold spell, these winters can be a drag for coldies waiting till Feb / March for some white stuff. Another roller coaster awaits!! 

I wouldn't worry too much about that tweet. Even the meto 6 to 15 day forecast was hopelessly wrong all week with it's unsettled outlook. It finally woke up with today's update. 

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There's quite a few direct hits on the GEFS 12z with the high further west..really hoping we get a direct cold blast from the arctic rather than a glancing blow..fingers crossed!❄️☃️

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Rock solid continuity from the ECM 12z from the overnight run.

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^^^ Alligned to the UKMO with a nice negative tilt @144

Cold marching south @168....

Snow showers Friday over Scotland dropping to lower levels..

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Rock solid continuity from the ECM 12z from the overnight run.

Yep, ECM looks like going pretty much for the jackpot at T168:

image.thumb.jpg.c3c6e8406f455a4bbed775754a7cbbe7.jpg

Alignment less good at T192 though:

image.thumb.jpg.66a0a1672ba6d459af7fb9eb863dd5af.jpg

All in the mix at this range.

Edited by Mike Poole

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I just wish that ridge could have become a proper Greeny ridge though, the trough moves over Greenland at 192, I know SST's can be a problem but I don't buy into the 'proper snow cant happen yet', the target dates for these synoptics is nearly November, if the proper Greenland high occurs, then the cold would March south better (albeit with a greater risk of a shortwave developing and cutting off the flow due to aforementioned SST'ss), The reason we don't get more snow at this time of year is because zonality has a high chance of verifying at this time of year.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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^^ Maybe no Greeny ridge however Scandi heights directing traffic S/SE should see an interesting 240 chart- Also rogue areas of vortex lobe over the pole -

only usually seen post SSW

8EDFE2E4-EF66-4535-BE0C-C439F8A03A29.thumb.jpeg.f78f5bebef7541d6683ab73011e542ae.jpeg

Edited by Steve Murr

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I just wish that ridge could have become a proper Greeny ridge though, the trough moves over Greenland at 192, I know SST's can bee a problem but I don't buy into the 'proper snow cant happen yet', the target dates for these synoptics is nearly November, if the proper Greenland high occurs, then the cold would March south better (albeit with a greater risk of a shortwave developing and cutting off the flow due to aforementioned SST'ss), The reason we don't get more snow at this time of year is because zonality has a high chance of verifying at this time of year.

Still can on the FV3 / GFS parallel,  here out to T168:

image.thumb.jpg.6b79485423dd49375e32c2befacfb9fd.jpg

One messed up PV, bit like a four-leaved clover - luck on our side?

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^ Maybe no Greeny ridge however Scandi heights directing traffic S/SE should see an interesting 240 chart- Also rogue areas of vortex lobe over the pole -

only usually seen post SSW

8EDFE2E4-EF66-4535-BE0C-C439F8A03A29.thumb.jpeg.f78f5bebef7541d6683ab73011e542ae.jpeg

Yes, great hemispheric patterns so far, no sign of excessive levels of zonality yet, needs to stay that way though me thinks, we need multi wavelength patterns for the next month, 2 at least. preferably 3 - need the dog (trop) to wag the tail (strat), ive seen the last few years how the vortex can strengthen very quickly even when things look good at this time of year

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Still can on the FV3 / GFS parallel,  here out to T168:

image.thumb.jpg.6b79485423dd49375e32c2befacfb9fd.jpg

One messed up PV, bit like a four-leaved clover - luck on our side?

Yes, that's what we need to see, plus its quite a stationary wavelength pattern as well - only very slow moving, the trough that's delivering WAA up the Wern side of Greenland.

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, great hemispheric patterns so far, no sign of excessive levels of zonality yet, needs to stay that way though me thinks, we need multi wavelength patterns for the next month, 2 at least. preferably 3 - need the dog (trop) to wag the tail (strat), ive seen the last few years how the vortex can strengthen very quickly even when things look good at this time of year

Or 4:

image.thumb.jpg.36667769f5482ccf60846d56ddcb83d0.jpg

FV3 at T180.  This 4 wave pattern is quite rare, especially headed towards winter, like it!

Edited by Mike Poole

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Plenty of the GEFS members going for a cool/cold pattern as we head into November. I like the direction P20 is heading with the high pressure developing into Greenland, if we can get a nice cold pool out to the east we could be in business for some early season snowfall. (Yes its FI but worth keeping an eye on) tempresult_gpk2.gif tempresult_imz7.gif tempresult_llf5.gif tempresult_krn1.gif tempresult_hnn2.gif

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I'm looking forward to the Northerly and if that was followed by further reloads and eventually an Easterly..that would be coldie heaven!👍:cold::D

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