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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I was actually just about to caveat myself and say - 'unless someone who has a subscription tells me different' - i take it that means there is.

Yes - though I don’t bother much with weeks 5 and 6 at all (unless they show wintry nirvana of course!,) 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
47 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Reads thread. Looks great for cold prospects

Goes away for a week

Comes back. Reads thread. Looks poor for cold prospects 

Shrugs shoulders and goes away for another week.....

You can't say that...people can't learn from this. Maybe a ramp/moans thread will soon be open?

As I said the next week or so and largely going by the gfs as well as ecm looks very monotonous but there's no raging jet stream which is a positive just a where do we go from here waiting game...

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

You can't say that...people can't learn from this. Maybe a ramp/moans thread will soon be open?

As I said the next week or so and largely going by the gfs as well as ecm looks very monotonous but there's no raging jet stream which is a positive just a where do we go from here waiting game...

Compared to the ECM the GFS 18Z ends up quite flat on a Northern hemisphere point of view with the PV really ramping up. Infact that has been the trend on most runs is for the PV to strengthen which you expect as we get deeper into November and into winter but the ECM does shows some more disruption to the PV and so has some GFS runs but it could either way really.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes - though I don’t bother much with weeks 5 and 6 at all (unless they show wintry nirvana of course!,) 

 

My take on ECMWF 46d:

low pressure anomaly  south of Greenland and Euro High day 25-46 throughout, the only difference by time is that through moves over towards Ireland and Euro High pushed a bit eastwards but still a +NAO and +AO, no sugar coating this is a move towards mild big time. Well it is still only 1 model and 1 update. Easter CONUS potentially stealing the cold, but anomaly not too strong there either

We will be able to compare with next update soon

Edited by jules216
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

18z GEFS

control run - tempresult_xgr9.gif  gensnh-0-5-336.png

P4 - tempresult_hfv4.gif gensnh-4-5-336.png

P13 gensnh-13-1-360.png gensnh-13-5-384.png

 

P20 tempresult_kqt9.gif tempresult_lcn7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

It shows where we currently sit that we can’t even find gefs members that actually show wintry conditions for most of the uk .....

However, its early November .......... and there is little to add beyond that short statement !

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
9 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Reads thread. Looks great for cold prospects

Goes away for a week

Comes back. Reads thread. Looks poor for cold prospects 

Shrugs shoulders and goes away for another week.....

That sums it up in a nutshell!

This thread by it's very nature will have a cold chart from the depths of one of the model suites showing something cold posted up daily. It is the hunt for cold after all! I know what you mean though - a week ago people were salivating at the prospect of something perhaps showing up around mid month.....fast forward 7 days and all we've got from day 1-10 and perhaps 15 is atlantic driven autumn weather. Nothing wrong with that, it's not even winter yet. Just as summer has a peak period for heat from around the end of June to the middle of August, winter proper is really the last third of december to the end of february. Plenty of time for nirvana!

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

the dreaded euro trash or whatever you call it high seems to becoming the dominant feature at the moment..Thank goodness it’s only early November and not early January,if you were looking for cold and snowy weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
32 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

the dreaded euro trash or whatever you call it high seems to becoming the dominant feature at the moment..Thank goodness it’s only early November and not early January,if you were looking for cold and snowy weather.

Indeed Sleety, little sign of the slug giving up anytime soon.Classic +NAO stuff ,and we know full well that these setups can last quite a while so thank goodness,as you say, its early November.

As an aside, i know there is interest in the meto updates, and they continue to paint a colder outcome later in the month,but i noticed the BBC monthly updated yesterday suggest westerly, south westerly winds right out to the end of Nov/beginning of Dec, as a caveat they say there is a 30& chance of dry settled weather at the end of Nov but do hint at some very wet weather at times.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

I think perhaps December 2010 has skewed some peoples expectations of how winter should be in the UK. Living on the south coast I never really expect to see cold and snowy synoptics before Christmas. If I do I look at it as a huge bonus but I certainly don't expect to see them. In this part of the UK December is most often an extension of Autumn rather than a winter month.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
45 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Indeed Sleety, little sign of the slug giving up anytime soon.Classic +NAO stuff ,and we know full well that these setups can last quite a while so thank goodness,as you say, its early November.

As an aside, i know there is interest in the meto updates, and they continue to paint a colder outcome later in the month,but i noticed the BBC monthly updated yesterday suggest westerly, south westerly winds right out to the end of Nov/beginning of Dec, as a caveat they say there is a 30& chance of dry settled weather at the end of Nov but do hint at some very wet weather at times.

 

Noticed this yesterday with the disparity between MeteoGroup (BBC) and the Metoffice, one or two runs starting to show a bit of zonality after a week or so now, seems like we're getting no where presently...as mentioned thank god it's only November!

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
23 hours ago, carinthian said:

 Ok got an update this morning from the team .No change for the next 5 days, however by weekend indications of a weakening of the block that should allow some progress of Atlantic weather fronts past the meridian followed by a slow falling of temperature thickness values generally across much of Western Europe. So turning less mild next weekend for many. Next, I asked the reasoning for their predictions of a colder last third of the month ( with specifics to UK) Their forecast model continues to show a projected jet stream at 300mb and 200mb levels  less than active or penetrative  towards the British Isles with a buckle south. This should eventually allow "opening up of the isobars" and allow ridging of high pressure over or towards the British Isles, possible with retrogressing further North and West with time. ( Hence a colder last 3rd of the month ). Hope this helps, of course this is only one view from over here but maybe along the lines of UKMO longer term forecast for the months end.

C

The North Atlantic jet shown from (gfs) below continues to buckle against the strong European Block.  The latest ECM models shows a strengthening of the ridge by Mid Month. So robust it is , that the buckle in the jet sends it into almost towards Sub Tropic jet location. Its not really unusual to see this block at this time of year, however, the failure of the Polar Jet to push into Europe in its normal path is a notable feature , it should normally be powerful enough as we enter the seasonal change in increasingly upper air temp differentials to make an impact into the large block. (whether the weakening of the jet is due to GW is another subject ) but is being touted by some experts as a cause.  Anyway, back to our longer range thoughts, still basically the same and a front loaded winter not being dismissed, even with this very warm Autumnal spell lasting till mid -month. Ridging of high pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles still being featured with colder weather for the last 10 days of the month.

GFSOPNH00_240_22.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

No surprise to see the strongest portion of the N/Hem jet is aimed right at us as usual!

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Well the Euro high  is a constant features during the 6z run  Its quickly becoming as welcome as a morris dancer at a blind football match.  the high causing the Atlantic lows to stall over us giving wind a copious amounts of rain.  

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

That deep LP around midmonth, gets stuck then fills, that is one very wet set up...with another trying to take its place after.  At the of 06z the temp differential between North of Midlands and Midlands south is incredible.  

Will that deep LP fill or get a chance to cross the gain line into Europe.....at the moment stalling looks more likely

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That deep LP around midmonth, gets stuck then fills, that is one very wet set up...with another trying to take its place after.  At the of 06z the temp differential between North of Midlands and Midlands south is incredible.  

Will that deep LP fill or get a chance to cross the gain line into Europe.....at the moment stalling looks more likely

 

BFTP

Gfs 6z has parts of the West widely receiving 100-150mm of rain in the next 10 days....if the pattern doesn’t change soon then flooding is going to be an issue again.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Gfs 6z has parts of the West widely receiving 100-150mm of rain in the next 10 days....if the pattern doesn’t change soon then flooding is going to be an issue again.

Indeed  up to 240z  most have a months worth of rain  through the spine of the country west.  

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Gfs 6z has parts of the West widely receiving 100-150mm of rain in the next 10 days....if the pattern doesn’t change soon then flooding is going to be an issue again.

Pretty much standard fair for Western Britain in November. It,s often the wettest month of the year. To be honest I,m surprised if I don,t record 100m or more I in November.

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Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
38 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Indeed  up to 240z  most have a months worth of rain  through the spine of the country west.  

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Any thoughts on why there are lower totals showing for NW Ireland (not that I'm complaining)? Would have expected us to get drenched in this stalking front set up.

Is it due to fronts swinging in from the SW and we're missing the most intense areas of precipitation?

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
4 minutes ago, Sperrin said:

Any thoughts on why there are lower totals showing for NW Ireland (not that I'm complaining)? Would have expected us to get drenched in this stalking front set up.

Is it due to fronts swinging in from the SW and we're missing the most intense areas of precipitation?

Could be a conveyor belt type scenario with colder air west of the rainband and drier, mild conditions east of it. Wales and NW England taking the worst, as well as SW peninsula. Certainly looks like that on some charts at present.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Orographic lift usually to blame....hence the same spots like shap in Cumbria etc get deluged, and east of the higher ground is much drier.

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