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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    10 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    NWS....individual runs are pointless in FI.....you know that!?

     

    BFTP

    I do, but its hardly 1 individual run in isolation mate, another horrid 00z GFS to add to the previous ones, even Blue army has said the trend is away from anything wintry looking.

     

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    Trust me, that's not a tropospheric vortex that's about to set up shop for the duration. More the exact opposite, particularly when you look at what's going on in the stratosphere.  Think lorries

    It's a pity the debate broke down a bit on here today - there were some interesting points made and I'll stick to these. Tamara is fundamentally right - the blocking pattern that is emerging for

    Convectively coupled tropical wave passage through the Indian Ocean ... check. Resultant spike in the Asian Jet and introduction of westerlies on the back equatorward momentum transport...G

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    A little glimmer that we maybe losing the euro high late on the EC Det this morning..

    From small acorns .. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    On ‎02‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 21:21, carinthian said:

    Extreme seasonal warmth for SE Europe this weekend. The summer does not want to end. Do not like this pattern establishing , seems mild locked in for many in Euroland for sometime to come. Think ski resort planners now worried about end of November start in some of the higher resorts. Currently freezing level over our mountains is 3500m.

    850temp_anom_048-13.jpg

    Morning all. Almost tropical like in the mountains this morning. Warmer with height. currently +10C at 2200m asl. Latest fax chart for most of the week indicating much of the same regarding the very mild conditions to persist . The UK  not looking good stuck under rinse and spin against the block. By day 7 ,we expect some lower thickness values to seep in from the west, so a slow change to cooler temps in our part of the world. Longer term charts I have been told are similar offerings to UK Met Office forecast for a gradual change to much colder conditions in the last 3rd of the month. However, not privy to view these. So from ski resort preparation point of view its a matter of sit back and wait and see. Certainly not good at the moment in the short to medium term in the hunt for cold and snow.

    C

    fax84s.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    A little glimmer that we maybe losing the euro high late on the EC Det this morning..

    From small acorns .. ?

    Euro heights signal still exists in the day 10 mean

    ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

    .. and the low heights to the north-west and highish heights over Europe continues right through the extended eps (+NAO set-up)

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Morning all. Almost tropical like in the mountains this morning. Warmer with height. currently +10C at 2200m asl. Latest fax chart for most of the week indicating much of the same regarding the very mild conditions to persist . The UK  not looking good stuck under rinse and spin against the block. By day 7 ,we expect some lower thickness values to seep in from the west, so a slow change to cooler temps in our part of the world. Longer term charts I have been told are similar offerings to UK Met Office forecast for a gradual change to much colder conditions in the last 3rd of the month. However, not privy to view these. So from ski resort preparation point of view its a matter of sit back and wait and see. Certainly not good at the moment in the short to medium term in the hunt for cold and snow.

    C

    fax84s.gif

    I will be skiing in Austrian Alps first time in my life during Christmas so I hope this warmth  will be gone by then ? 

    It is a very slow start compared to some of the previous La Nina esque autumns which bring early shots of cold to central Europe.

    Looking at EPS from this morning I struggle to see how are going to achieve the advertised amplified pattern in vicinity of UK near the end of the month.

    Well thank goodness its only November. 

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    I got chastised a couple of days ago for  suggesting some form of westerlies were the most likely outcome at this stage! Still looking that way for the time being. Any cold chances now firmly pushed into the last third of the month at althe earliest now it would seem.....not that its a bad thing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    IMO the models are pretty much all over the shop, who thinks that what they show now for next weekend will actually be the weather we get or are they likely to dramatically change by then? I’d say change quite a bit so anybody saying no cold until at least the last third of the month is bonkers. Nobody can say how a whole month will plan out that’s all I’m saying. I pretty confident that huge block to the east will have a much bigger say than is currently showing.

    enjoy the ups and downs people. Christmas is coming ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

    And here's the chart from November 4 1978...Make of it what you will, but I don't see much indication of what followed. Don't write winter off just yet?

    GFS Archive Image

    I don't think anyone is writing winter off!  It's just the next 15 days or so is not going to produce any significant cold - not really a surprise as it's only early November.

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    Omg it looks like we're back to square 1 on the GFS 0z with very wet weather for many western areas, over 100mm in places during the week ahead (even parts of SW England would be hit this time after escaping the floods that occurred in W Scotland and S Wales last month) Thank goodness half term was a decent week because next week looks dreadful with a capital 'D' ? lets hope there won't be too much flooding again ??

    image.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm, sunny summers
  • Location: Dublin, Ireland
    4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    I do, but its hardly 1 individual run in isolation mate, another horrid 00z GFS to add to the previous ones, even Blue army has said the trend is away from anything wintry looking.

     

    Come on man, it's early November, what do ya expect like seriously? It's not what happens now that matters, it's the prospects of what could happen in a few weeks from now. Wouldn't mind a proper cold, wintry January for a change!

    Just had a look at the GFS 0z myself, reminds me of November 2009 again. Not your usual zonal pattern, fronts struggling to push west to east.

    Edited by BruenSryan
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    There’s not much cold in the output at the minute but I do like big block to east of uk /  it could be a big player for winter season I don’t think models got clue past mid November I expect big change soon remember remember we have not even got to 5th November..

    1C4F22CC-68A9-4A1E-B728-BFB85B5A2E79.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Massive change on the 00z ecm op run. Much more mobile and unsettled. Either it has picked up on something or the model is struggling with conflicting signals. The 12z run later today should give us some answers. Will it follow the 00z trend or revert back to something more settled in the extended?

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    36 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

    Omg it looks like we're back to square 1 on the GFS 0z with very wet weather for many western areas, over 100mm in places during the week ahead (even parts of SW England would be hit this time after escaping the floods that occurred in W Scotland and S Wales last month) Thank goodness half term was a decent week because next week looks dreadful with a capital 'D' ? lets hope there won't be too much flooding again ??

    image.jpeg

    Ar man! ? Supposed to be going to Wales this week (Cardiff area), so personally do hope it doesn’t turn out to be as soggy as it seems on that chart! 

    Appears to be a problem sometimes when you get those stalling Lows out in the Atlantic with rain bands being slow to shift and clear.  

    Even a cold, dry setup would be (far) more preferable than what’s coming up this week. 

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    49 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    And here's the chart from November 4 1978...Make of it what you will, but I don't see much indication of what followed. Don't write winter off just yet?

    GFS Archive Image

    And the flipside, those eager for early northerly blocking, look at this chart from the November of 20 years ago

    NOAA_2_1998111418_1.png

    Look at the northerly blocking there but the following winter was very mediocre for cold and snow lovers. 

    A month later

    NOAA_2_1998121418_1.png

    Edited by Weather-history
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    56 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    And here's the chart from November 4 1978...Make of it what you will, but I don't see much indication of what followed. Don't write winter off just yet?

    GFS Archive Image

    Indeed Pete....and what winter did that lead to folks ? 

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    1 hour ago, jules216 said:

    I will be skiing in Austrian Alps first time in my life during Christmas so I hope this warmth  will be gone by then ? 

    It is a very slow start compared to some of the previous La Nina esque autumns which bring early shots of cold to central Europe.

    Looking at EPS from this morning I struggle to see how are going to achieve the advertised amplified pattern in vicinity of UK near the end of the month.

    Well thank goodness its only November. 

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

    Hi, which resort are you going to for Christmas ? Yes, this time last year we already had some snow on the piste and preparation was well on time for the seasonal start. So far, this Autumn heading for one of the warmest ever in parts of Central and Eastern Europe. The longer term charts I have been told over here do indicate a strong Polar front to move through much of Europe towards the last 10 days of this month with the establishment of a more northerly block. Should get an update tomorrow morning when I will push for a bit more information from our resort portal forecast team. Fingers cross !

    C

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    GFS 6z and ECM 00z very different for the uk and Europe by day 10 . No clear route to where we are headed in the longer term . 

    IMG_2740.PNG

    IMG_2741.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley, Kent
  • Location: Bexley, Kent
    2 hours ago, jules216 said:

    I will be skiing in Austrian Alps first time in my life during Christmas so I hope this warmth  will be gone by then ? 

    It is a very slow start compared to some of the previous La Nina esque autumns which bring early shots of cold to central Europe.

    Looking at EPS from this morning I struggle to see how are going to achieve the advertised amplified pattern in vicinity of UK near the end of the month.

    Well thank goodness its only November. 

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

    The model ensembles still do build high pressure over the UK but not till day 15ish, of course the question will be what happens to that high afterwards.  But the theme of high pressure over the UK does seem to drifting from mid month which was showing a week back towards the final third of the month now. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    1 hour ago, carinthian said:

    Hi, which resort are you going to for Christmas ? Yes, this time last year we already had some snow on the piste and preparation was well on time for the seasonal start. So far, this Autumn heading for one of the warmest ever in parts of Central and Eastern Europe. The longer term charts I have been told over here do indicate a strong Polar front to move through much of Europe towards the last 10 days of this month with the establishment of a more northerly block. Should get an update tomorrow morning when I will push for a bit more information from our resort portal forecast team. Fingers cross !

    C

    Going here, https://www.nassfeld.at/en/aktiv/skifahren-oesterreich/skigebiet-nassfeld

    The resort is at approx. 1560m asl, would presume there will be enough snow by then to enjoy. It's though fascinating how stubborn this euro high has been since May. It will be some timing to get rid of it just in time for December, wouldn't it?

    A lot of people are looking at what is going to happen to the north of us, re Scandi high or Greenland high, but do not focus on the key area between Black sea and Baltics, it is there where we got the most stubborn high omnipresent. If you don't get rid of this anomaly you can forget about longevity of any cold spells, I also understand that there is no time for any conclusions and patterns can switch even though they were present for like 6 months now.

    I know a lot of people who are starting to wonder when  will this endless summer in central Europe(26 degrees measured in Hungary other day) going to end. Period between May until to date  has been the warmest on record, only not for cold Feb/March this year would have been also the warmest on record in Central Europe by a fair margin.

     

     

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    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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