Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The high pressure signal over Europe was the main reason I was not over-enamoured of yesterday's ECM 12z.  Any road, it's worse this morning.

That's T240, so there is still time for this to change.

 

It should feel seasonal at least. We may even get some fog. I do miss the Autumnal fogs of my childhood. 

[Methuselah]

27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - no dressing it up any other way - the output is dyer this morning.

I agree, feb...But winter disnae even start for another four weeks!

Patience is a virtue? Good things come to he who waits?

[Met4Cast]

Not entirely sure what models some are looking at but this mornings output is a step in the right direction. Scandi heights are more prominent and more amplified than they were on yesterdays runs In the earlier timeframes 

The above charts are a beauty, WAA into the Arctic, trop vortex more or less split. If anyone thinks this 240 chart from the ECM is likely, think again

We all know how poorly the models handle heights to our East, they always bulldoze high pressure out of the way like it was nothing and then closer to the time they realise the heights are more robust and everything backs West. That’s exactly whats happened in the earlier timeframes of this mornings runs and I suspect will continue to happen in the coming days. 

Watch for the low pressure to undercut more than the models are showing and thus reinforcing the heights to our North. 

Zonal winds are forecasted to plummet and models are hinting at quite a warming (though not quite SSW) in the medium timeframe along with a displaced vortex towards the Siberian side of the Arctic.

Solid outputs this morning and a continuation with what I am expecting. 

Cold will reach the UK shores by the last third of the month, until then we’re in the middle of the Atlantic and blocking heights to the East, I expect the heights to win out.

Short term cold = Poor models

Long term cold = Good/Very good

Edited November 3, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I agree, feb...But winter disnae even start for another four weeks!

Patience is a virtue? Good things come to he who waits?

Ay for us, but northern areas, especially higher up, it's snow season now, if I was 300m oop norf, I'd want the cold setups now

but for us in non snowy locations, early Nov, models are okay

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I agree, feb...But winter disnae even start for another four weeks!

Patience is a virtue? Good things come to he who waits?

Unlike you to be so posituve wrt cold - give it another 4 weeks of this output and you'll be writing winter off, not because you think its possible to predict that far ahead -  i jnow you dont, but more on a basis of 'we keep having mild dross winters so whats going to change'

[Mike Poole]

49 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

 

Cold will reach the UK shores by the last third of the month, until then we’re in the middle of the Atlantic and blocking heights to the East, I expect the heights to win out.

Short term cold = Poor models

Long term cold = Good/Very good

Good post. 

My thinking is along similar lines, and I'm not changing my mind based on this mornings runs, although they are poor.  

One question I have, is this - I've been model watching since 2011 and in the winter half of the year, it seems that the 0z runs tend more often to be a downgrade, and the 12z runs more often tend to be an upgrade.  I'm (almost) convinced I'm not imagining this so does anyone know why this might be?

I do think there could be a scientific reason for this, given they are initiated with data at quite different times of day globe wide.

Edited November 3, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unlike you to be so posituve wrt cold - give it another 4 weeks of this output and you'll be writing winter off, not because you think its possible to predict that far ahead -  i jnow you dont, but more on a basis of 'we keep having mild dross winters so whats going to change'

Probably that, after so many years' vainly hunting for cold, I've come to the not very exciting conclusion that I may just as well wait for it...I'll enjoy it when it comes, though!

[blizzard81]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Good post. 

My thinking is along similar lines, and I'm not changing my mind based on this mornings runs, although they are poor.  

One question I have, is this - I've been model watching since 2011 and in the winter half of the year, it seems that the 0z runs tend more often to be a downgrade, and the 12z runs more often tend to be an upgrade.  I'm (almost) convinced I'm not imagining this so does anyone know why this might be?

I do think there could be a scientific reason for this, given they are initiated with data at quite different times of day globe wide.

You are right. It's certainly not your imagination. The 00z runs tend to be the flattest and least amplified, especially in the long term. This has been the case for many years now. 

[Weather-history]

On 30 October 2018 at 13:39, Steve Murr said:

late start to the ski season...

once you get past 15 Nov & theres no snow some of the high / glacier resorts would be saying its a late start-

Actually some resorts are having an early start to the season

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/winter-s-coming---_season-starts-for-some-ski-areas/44518888

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters definitely stepped away from colder scenarios this morning - still some ensembles going for a dominant Scandi High at D10 but outweighed by clusters with heights further south now - and by D15 there's far less HLB going on

 

However, I'm sensing there may be opportunities for cold coming up (mid month and after) through a cold stationary high over the UK. Fog + frost rather than snow. 

Edited November 3, 2018 by Man With Beard

[booferking]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

The high pressure signal over Europe was the main reason I was not over-enamoured of yesterday's ECM 12z.  Any road, it's worse this morning.

That's T240, so there is still time for this to change.

 

Night and day.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

P10 from the GEM 0z wouldn't be an awful position to be in by day 7 with a slight shift of the scandi high and better position of that low to our west and that colder air to the east could head our way   think the quicker the cold can develop to our east the better.

[blizzard81]

Most wintry update yet on the met office 16-30 day extended forecast. 

[blizzard81]

That's not a shabby anomaly for December

[blizzard81]

January isn't bad either! 

[ITSY]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's not a shabby anomaly for December

A brilliant update for cold potential. With higher anomalies in the Med region though there is a chance it could end up a rather wet scenario with lows bumping up and stalling against  a block rather than undercutting, but this is a great scenario to be operating in...

[northwestsnow]

19 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Most wintry update yet on the met office 16-30 day extended forecast. 

Really?

How on earth are they seeing anything remotely wintry ?

Unless iv'e missed something, the 00z runs out as far as the eye can see look, well,a bit uneventful to say the least!!

Edited November 3, 2018 by northwestsnow

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Really?

How on earth are they seeing anything remotely wintry ?

Unless iv'e missed something, the 00z runs out as far as the eye can see look, well,a bit uneventful to say the least!!

Remember you saying the same thing last winter before the heavy snow in Dec

Met office have a lot more tools then we see online remember 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Remember you saying the same thing last winter before the heavy snow in Dec

Met office have a lot more tools then we see online remember 

Blimey sleety you got a better memory than me !! Im struggling to remember last week..

The update upgrade is more related to the end of November but its a good un , wintry precipitation - yum yum..

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really?

How on earth are they seeing anything remotely wintry ?

Unless iv'e missed something, the 00z runs out as far as the eye can see look, well,a bit uneventful to say the least!!

It's the 16-30 day update. The 00z runs only run out to 16 days and no further. 

[Mike Poole]

19 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's not a shabby anomaly for December

 

You can't glean anything from a single run of CFS, you need to look at it probabilistically.  So for balance, here's the previous 7 runs for December 

Yes it's more mixed as you would expect, but I'm detecting a -AO flavour to this which CFS hadn't been showing thus far this winter?

Bodes well, I'd say.

Edited November 3, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Essex snowman]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Blimey sleety you got a better memory than me !! Im struggling to remember last week..

The update upgrade is more related to the end of November but its a good un , wintry precipitation - yum yum..

Hi guys where do I find the met office update regards es 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You can't glean anything from a single run of CFS, you need to look at it probabilistically.  So for balance, here's the previous 7 runs for December 

Yes it's more mixed as you would expect, but I'm detecting a -AO flavour to this which CFS hadn't been showing thus far this winter?

Bodes well, I'd say.

Indeed I had a good look at the previous few runs before I posted. A trend emerging? Hopefully yes along with the positive meto update. 

[SLEETY]

let’s hope the met have it correct,though they get it wrong as such a timescale as well.Cant live through another 2015 nov dec,the most pathetic mild spell which wasted a whole  6 weeks,winter was rubbish after as well

[Met4Cast]

39 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really?

How on earth are they seeing anything remotely wintry ?

Unless iv'e missed something, the 00z runs out as far as the eye can see look, well,a bit uneventful to say the least!!

See my post above, i suspect the MO are seeing the same thing that I am, expect blocking to begin showing in the models in the next few days with any milder, Atlantic driven weather being pushed back and back