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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Anyone else think this looks like a torpedo?

Yes or a fish - lets hope its not an omen for a wet winter!

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ECM brings in a Northerly by day 8  this morning....snow showers for parts of Scotland perhaps?❄️

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Nice from the ECM this morning. Hello winter . Good bye summer . 😁

IMG_2691.PNG

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 I Wonder if some places will record some sub zero minima next weekend on the EC 00z?

Edited by northwestsnow
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

 I Wonder if some places will record some sub zero minima next weekend on the EC 00z?

Yes on ECM definitely, The Scottish highlands would for starters!, but lower down as well probably and further south.

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Another successful hunting trip for cold on the Ecm 00z!!!😉😍⛄❄️

 

192_mslp850.png

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
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The 7-day trend is deffinaly a cooling one for the UK some parts of eastern Europe could be well below average

 

 

ANOM2m_trend_europe.png

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6z GFS certainly sharper than the 00z was, though still a glancing blow for the UK but it’s great to see mainland Europe rapidly cooling

28CF44AB-A7F7-4B09-B1B2-2D9A7A174366.thumb.png.06d68cd73eb104631251cc383cd1a1b6.png

ECM 6z offers a much more direct Northerly for the UK and would probably bring some snow to the Northern hills, one heck of a Scandi low there too. Beautiful synoptics, lets hope they continue deep into November when we can start getting excited at these kinds of patterns, it’s still a little too early. 

ACD79435-6263-4578-8B35-1579E1CACBC2.thumb.png.7288ef046546341402a7c779401f7158.png

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. This picture below taken in the village last season and news today is that the resort will open on 1st December to start the ski-ing season ( subject to decent snow cover of course ) Good news from our Portal Weather Service provider is encouraging for a early cold spell, starting next week ! After weeks of warmth , a abrupt change from Summer to Winter conditions in the mountains by the last week of October. A deep trough over the Arctic Region should eventually move towards Scandinavia early next week. Both the Atlantic ridge and North European trough likely to intensify and should result in the sharpening of the cold front. Cold air advection will follow into parts of Eastern /Central Europe for a time. The model used for snow depth forecasting indicates 30cm of fresh snowfall  in our range of mountains by 31st October (40%) probability rate.  Most global models in agreement at 144t but variations at 240t shown on ECM /GFS outcome. The view from over here and their own model indicates something more along the lines shown by GFS , but overall its going to get colder and that more than likely includes the UK . To early for the fine mesh model to give precise snow accumulations in resort but one we will be watching with anticipation next Monday/ Tuesday.

C

44206412_2134821826530413_1069570036366049280_o.jpg

With reference to the above post, latest GFS run confirming a increasingly upper temp divide and a sharpening of the North European trough at 240t.

C

GFSOPEU06_240_2.png

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Look at the 850s temp difference on the GFS 6Z over Greenland. The southern half in +5 to +6 uppers and the north down to -30 uppers . That is a huge difference. 

IMG_2692.PNG

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Always good to have a bit of Autumn buzz in the forum, at this time of year it’s nice to get some frosty crisp sunshine and that certainly looks possible later this month. Who knows what winter will bring, an earlier tweet from Ian F wasn’t promising for early Winter, but at this range I’ll keep my fingers crossed that the METOs thoughts are proved wrong. I do hope we aren’t needing an SSW for a chance of a cold spell, these winters can be a drag for coldies waiting till Feb / March for some white stuff. Another roller coaster awaits!! 

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If you're hunting for cold / snow the GEFS 6z postage stamps will make you smile..especially if you're further north..the signs are good for our first proper cold shot from the North from later next week and potentially into the following week!😀❄️⛄..everything crossed!😉

snow_180_ps_slp.png

snow_192_ps_slp.png

snow_228_ps_slp.png

snow_252_ps_slp.png

850temp_222_ps_slp.png

2m_maxtemp_198_ps_slp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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yes frosty could be some early season snow for hilly areas soon,is this the winter that finally delivers 

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30 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Always good to have a bit of Autumn buzz in the forum, at this time of year it’s nice to get some frosty crisp sunshine and that certainly looks possible later this month. Who knows what winter will bring, an earlier tweet from Ian F wasn’t promising for early Winter, but at this range I’ll keep my fingers crossed that the METOs thoughts are proved wrong. I do hope we aren’t needing an SSW for a chance of a cold spell, these winters can be a drag for coldies waiting till Feb / March for some white stuff. Another roller coaster awaits!! 

Good to see you back @Ali1977 . Not to worry about the tweet from IF/METO . They said about a front loaded winter the year before last and that never happened lol . 5 to 7 days ahead and they have a pretty good idea what weather to expect . From 8 to 16 days it's just about trends . After that its anyones guess . 

@feb1991blizzard my location gets a blob of -10 850s on p15 as well .IMG_2693.thumb.PNG.ffdd844de7b0d087e1df25d5c79f7e81.PNG

The snow row is rising on the GEFS too . Nice . IMG_2695.thumb.PNG.9622f0f499acb48b600ca69d4028e923.PNG

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Good to see you back @Ali1977 . Not to worry about the tweet from IF/METO . They said about a front loaded winter the year before last and that never happened lol . 5 to 7 days ahead and they have a pretty good idea what weather to expect . From 8 to 16 days it's just about trends . After that its anyones guess . 

@feb1991blizzard my location gets a blob of -10 850s on p15 as well .IMG_2693.thumb.PNG.ffdd844de7b0d087e1df25d5c79f7e81.PNG

The snow row is rising on the GEFS too . Nice . IMG_2695.thumb.PNG.9622f0f499acb48b600ca69d4028e923.PNG

Where is this tweet? cant find it on his page.

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Where is this tweet? cant find it on his page.

It was on the back of a netweather tweet, it’s still there 👍

i guess it’s what they are seeing at the minute, a loooonnng way to go yet. 

Edited by Ali1977
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4 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. This picture below taken in the village last season and news today is that the resort will open on 1st December to start the ski-ing season ( subject to decent snow cover of course ) Good news from our Portal Weather Service provider is encouraging for a early cold spell, starting next week ! After weeks of warmth , a abrupt change from Summer to Winter conditions in the mountains by the last week of October. A deep trough over the Arctic Region should eventually move towards Scandinavia early next week. Both the Atlantic ridge and North European trough likely to intensify and should result in the sharpening of the cold front. Cold air advection will follow into parts of Eastern /Central Europe for a time. The model used for snow depth forecasting indicates 30cm of fresh snowfall  in our range of mountains by 31st October (40%) probability rate.  Most global models in agreement at 144t but variations at 240t shown on ECM /GFS outcome. The view from over here and their own model indicates something more along the lines shown by GFS , but overall its going to get colder and that more than likely includes the UK . To early for the fine mesh model to give precise snow accumulations in resort but one we will be watching with anticipation next Monday/ Tuesday.

C

44206412_2134821826530413_1069570036366049280_o.jpg

ECM showing a second more potent attack from the North next weekend to include the UK. Also, sort up ties in with the UKMO worded forecast that covers this extended period. Will be interesting to see whether the ECM model this evening holds this positioning or whether GFS brings back the North European trough in focus towards the British Isles. Just for good measure our snow accumulation forecasts have been upgraded to 35cm by 31 St October, still in the 40% probability rate which is still high to medium for this time span.

C

untitled.png

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ECM clusters having a good spell at the moment, this little "northerly" is counting down well

However, this morning's clusters suggest something a bit more muted than the op is favoured

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018101900_192.

By the end of the month the signal gets a little more scrambled once more- could see more cold weather on the back of clusters 1 and 2 possibly but milder options well in play again.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018101900_300.

I hope this isn't too "pessimistic" for the "hunt for cold" thread? ;)

 

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36 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I hope this isn't too "pessimistic" for the "hunt for cold" thread?

It could do with a bit more cold ramping to be honest... 🤔

But nah, it’s fine. ;) After all, some of those ECMWF clusters at the top of your post do show a possible cold plunge for the UK with some kind of Scandinavian/European troughing. 

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