Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, MP-R said:

And sadly I think quite cloudy southerlies so potentially very boring weather to come. At least sunshine could allow for some more notably high temperatures.

If we are to get southerlies then it would be good if they made it all the way to the arctic as that could help build some serious northern blocking.

Something to look out for but stuck in a rut springs to mind....

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You would have to imagine that there's some sort of decent cluster backing the op looking at the 240 EPS mean.

A better mean than the 0z.

50/50 split between the op run, and anomalous heights directly to the north. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

50/50 split between the op run, and anomalous heights directly to the north. 

All in all, not a bad suite then.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Extreme seasonal warmth for SE Europe this weekend. The summer does not want to end. Do not like this pattern establishing , seems mild locked in for many in Euroland for sometime to come. Think ski resort planners now worried about end of November start in some of the higher resorts. Currently freezing level over our mountains is 3500m.

Nah, I foresee a big switch happening.  E to NE winds for U.K. late Nov a la last 3rd,  I think a v cold trough drops into Europe....with Northern blocking ushering in a cold start to Winter.  

 

BFTP

[Ladyofthestorm]

I agree with you Blasty. And I think it will be like a switch too. The polar vortex looks weak. 

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Nah, I foresee a big switch happening.  E to NE winds for U.K. late Nov a la last 3rd,  I think a v cold trough drops into Europe....with Northern blocking ushering in a cold start to Winter.  

 

BFTP

 

 

1 minute ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

I agree with you Blasty. And I think it will be like a switch too. The polar vortex looks weak. 

I thought that as well, hence my very low CET prediction, the last few runs though make me think it might be difficult to get the really cold uppers anywhere near us.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

 

I thought that as well, hence my very low CET prediction, the last few runs though make me think it might be difficult to get the really cold uppers anywhere near us.

It was easy to be really cold this evening here.  It won’t take long to usher in the cold if it is inclined to

 

BFTP

[Ladyofthestorm]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

 

I thought that as well, hence my very low CET prediction, the last few runs though make me think it might be difficult to get the really cold uppers anywhere near us.

The ensembles are all over the place. Barely get consensus at 5 days put. 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

The ensembles are all over the place. Barely get consensus at 5 days put. 

True but there arent many members as a couple of days ago showing the potential for screaming NE'lies, have to wait to see where the air is funnelled around that scandi high over the next few days worth of runs.

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Not too sure I'm liking where we're headed tbh Feb. From the analogues I've looked at, the most severe early winter spells have been preceded by some form of HP residing where the strongest core of the vortex is shown to reside on that mean chart. 

I know where you are coming from. However, I'd like to think there are too many variables at play at any given moment to place total faith in the archives though. 

Edited November 2, 2018 by blizzard81

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

here are GEFS at around 50hr intervals starting at around the 100hr mark - 300hr mark which is obviously well into FI

102h  all pretty much in agreement with the low just to our west

150h  plenty trying to get some kind of block in place

204h  seems to be lots of possibilities at this time frame but still the majority with the high to our east

252h  almost similar to the 102h chart with a low to our west and plenty showing the high to our east

300h  less agreement with some unsettled but some with the high to our east

GEM ensembles pretty similar 

102h 

150h 

204h 

300h 

Could be a repeating pattern with the lows just to our west and the scandi high trying to move westwards with possible easterly's for us at times. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

As a reminder to all....this is what an utterly horrendous winter chart of doom looks like:

December 2015, a month we’d all like to forget. Just look at the state of the PV there! Angry doesn’t do it justice!

The trouble is there’s still time to get to that state! We can’t take anything for granted but I feel optimistic that the low solar and the mild La Niña will deliver the goods this winter in at least a few cold spells down the line

[Geordiesnow]

3 hours ago, Brucie said:

The weather looks to be stuck in a rut over the next week or so  and quite benign too away from the N & W.  Dare I say mild or very mild too! I guess this is typical of a jetstream which is meandering wildly and is weak in nature.  It can't stay mild and dry for the rest of November...or can it??  Oh...I'm hunting for cold too but we have winter to come.

David

Certainly a very mild start to November with a lengthy spell of mild dominating the UK with spells of rain edgeing eastwards so certainly no frosts on the horizon. 

The problem at the moment is the warm high to our East, probably similar to cold highs in winter, the warmer the air under the high, the stronger the block hence why the Atlantic is keep getting deflected northwards and the high over Scandinavia will be a persistant one indeed. Certainly not unusual at this time of year but with climate change this type of set up could become more common place in Autumn instead of cooler troughs dominating bringing snowfalls to Scandinavia. 

As per ever with the outlook, it can easily change before we know it but virtually every run is saying a similar thing, the UK will be mild to very mild with southerly to SSE'ly winds blowing and spells of rain struggling to make across at times. 

[mb018538]

7 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The trouble is there’s still time to get to that state! We can’t take anything for granted but I feel optimistic that the low solar and the mild La Niña will deliver the goods this winter in at least a few cold spells down the line

Think you may be confused slightly...we’re likely to see El Niño in a form this winter....not La Niña!

[Man With Beard]

Massive mean 1030mb high over E Europe between D8 and D10 ... regardless of the clusters showing heights to our north, I think the presence of this high shuts out any very cold options for a couple of weeks. 

Edited November 3, 2018 by Man With Beard

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Massive mean 1030mb high over E Europe between D8 and D10 ... regardless of the clusters showing heights to our north, I think the presence of this high shuts out any very cold options for a couple of weeks. 

I posted re the drift away from a cold scenario in ‘knockers thread’.

Of course, a strategically placed block could result in more wintry surface conditions than high lat blocking would at this time of year .......

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Think you may be confused slightly...we’re likely to see El Niño in a form this winter....not La Niña!

Which tend to favour a colder second half to winter don't they?

[mulzy]

I have been dying to say this for a while but has the hunt for cold gone cold?

Would be interesting to see what the clusters indicate in the EPS - I guess the *trend* is towards lower heights across Greenland than previously advertised.  Let's see...

[jules216]

56 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Massive mean 1030mb high over E Europe between D8 and D10 ... regardless of the clusters showing heights to our north, I think the presence of this high shuts out any very cold options for a couple of weeks. 

I have been saying this for many times now, the quasi permanent high pressure on axis along Black Sea,Romania,Ukraine Belarus and Eastern Baltics is practically a knockout blow for any meaningful cold spell for the continent. And if we look at all the most recent long term outputs(EPS,GEFS,GEPS,ECM46d) it still keeps this high in place there. It has been there permanently since May and at times also spreads as far as eastern Scandi. This pesky euro high is nearly as bad as our friend Bartlett high.As an example we have this chart from ecmwf 46 dayer and it still has that high there,notice -EPO, eastern USA cold, this pattern favorite for next while I think.

 

 

Edited November 3, 2018 by jules216

[carinthian]

11 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Nah, I foresee a big switch happening.  E to NE winds for U.K. late Nov a la last 3rd,  I think a v cold trough drops into Europe....with Northern blocking ushering in a cold start to Winter.  

 

BFTP

Brave call that BFTP .Of course, I hope your prediction is going to take place. However, I cannot not see it as things stand but if it does, great credit to you sir. I do not like this spin and rinse cycle to develop out west of the British Isles and far too warm over most of Euroland. Its in a rut and I hate it at this time of the year.

 C

Edited November 3, 2018 by carinthian

[Don]

This is beginning to remind me of where we were two years ago, when hopes of a cold 2nd half of November were being dashed.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

I have been saying this for many times now, the quasi permanent high pressure on axis along Black Sea,Romania,Ukraine Belarus and Eastern Baltics is practically a knockout blow for any meaningful cold spell for the continent. And if we look at all the most recent long term outputs(EPS,GEFS,GEPS,ECM46d) it still keeps this high in place there. It has been there permanently since May and at times also spreads as far as eastern Scandi. This pesky euro high is nearly as bad as our friend Bartlett high.As an example we have this chart from ecmwf 46 dayer and it still has that high there,notice -EPO, eastern USA cold, this pattern favorite for next while I think.

Ironically, that ec46 chart (they won’t like you posting that btw ) delivers below average T2’s for many parts of the uk. But the continent east of the meridian is, as you say, pretty  warm 

[Mike Poole]

The high pressure signal over Europe was the main reason I was not over-enamoured of yesterday's ECM 12z.  Any road, it's worse this morning.

That's T240, so there is still time for this to change.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The high pressure signal over Europe was the main reason I was not over-enamoured of yesterday's ECM 12z.  Any road, it's worse this morning.

That's T240, so there is still time for this to change.

 

Yes - no dressing it up any other way - the output is dyer this morning.

[jules216]

36 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ironically, that ec46 chart (they won’t like you posting that btw ) delivers below average T2’s for many parts of the uk. But the continent east of the meridian is, as you say, pretty  warm 

Yes and the cold pool in vicinity of UK would be of limited extend judging by that anomaly, on the other side there is a considerable scatter in various members in AO and NAO regions so it's suffice to say we have many options at the table. Maybe another few weeks before we can start having clearer ideas of December. In past years almost religiously there has been a major shift in pattern around the last week of November in Europe and I hope that this Euro high will have a chance to bugger of.