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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh dear!

image.thumb.jpg.9b2a5e3ccfa4e2233895f7a76d0e8adb.jpg

(ECM T240) But don't worry, the probability of ending up here is minuscule given the other model output I would suggest.  Let's get to the middle of next week with the push of heights north and maybe towards Greenland and see what the models say then...I of course will refrain from model watching until that point - not...

Thats not a bad chart actually, i would take that.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh dear!

image.thumb.jpg.9b2a5e3ccfa4e2233895f7a76d0e8adb.jpg

(ECM T240) But don't worry, the probability of ending up here is minuscule given the other model output I would suggest.  Let's get to the middle of next week with the push of heights north and maybe towards Greenland and see what the models say then...I of course will refrain from model watching until that point - not...

That chart actually holds much potential. The high to our east is retrogressing and could end up joining forces with the high out in the Atlantic. Many a classic Greenland high has resulted in such set ups. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM has 850s more like summer at 240, up at 8-10c! May get an inversion at this time of year anyway. As long as it’s not zonal then everything is all good. As others have said it’s not a bad chart, PV has been shunted out towards Siberia.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

That chart actually holds much potential. The high to our east is retrogressing and could end up joining forces with the high out in the Atlantic. Many a classic Greenland high has resulted in such set ups. 

Exactly my thoughts when seeing the chart. Also a few interesting members in the ensembles. Not many but its 1 or 2 more then yesterday at least.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Was thinking the same thing getting ready for another attack North.

Its not perfect, i dont like the small low near Iceland and would depends on the track and absorption of it afterwards, the heights are strong to the South and the trough over Canada is fast moving, but its nowhere near rampant zonality and there is potential down the line - PV in the other 2 quadrants.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, blizzard81 said:

That chart actually holds much potential. The high to our east is retrogressing and could end up joining forces with the high out in the Atlantic. Many a classic Greenland high has resulted in such set ups. 

Thanks, and to others who have also responded, since posting here have learned so much, so much still to learn, particularly re winter setups !  Hey ho!  Would be nice to see the day 11 chart on this run then!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Exactly my thoughts when seeing the chart. Also a few interesting members in the ensembles. Not many but its 1 or 2 more then yesterday at least.

Are you talking GEFS or have you been through the overnight EPS?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

As a reminder to all....this is what an utterly horrendous winter chart of doom looks like:

7505C740-23F4-43DD-991A-CB9500480540.thumb.png.9256da28bf013428083809802f406679.png

December 2015, a month we’d all like to forget. Just look at the state of the PV there! Angry doesn’t do it justice!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Are you talking GEFS or have you been through the overnight EPS?

GEFS, some may not add to much but I don't see many zonal options in them

GFSP02EU12_330_1.png P2 GFSP04EU12_384_1.png P4 GFSP05EU12_384_1.png P5

 

GFSP08EU12_354_1.png P8 GFSP11EU12_288_1.png P11 GFSP12EU12_342_1.png P12

 

GFSP19EU12_324_1.png P19 

 

A fair distance out but better then nothing :)

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Thanks, and to others who have also responded, since posting here have learned so much, so much still to learn, particularly re winter setups !  Hey ho!  Would be nice to see the day 11 chart on this run then!

Cheers. My thoughts are based on past experience of similar set ups. Not saying I am correct on this one but your rampant west to east zonal this is not. Like Feb said above, the low near Iceland could be problematic. I am in two minds about it though. Could it act as a trigger low and dive south east if heights built rapidly to the north west? All conjecture of course with a day 10 chart. All good fun to speculate though :)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

You would have to imagine that there's some sort of decent cluster backing the op looking at the 240 EPS mean.

EDH1-240_hpa1.GIF

A better mean than the 0z.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

Looks like a slight rise in the scandi high going by the pressure graphs for Oslo GEFS Ensembles Chart and a 50/50 whether pressure will rise towards Iceland going by the Reykjavik chart Diagramme GEFS looks like a slight decline in the pressure over Greenland (chart is for Nuuk) although hard to tell after around the 11th / 12th November with a split Diagramme GEFS

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All ...After the projected Stormy spell coming up which wont happen and again is a big cock up from the met office etc,  a quiet spell of weather coming up ,Yes milder weather next week as the jet stream buckles and stops the rain bearing fronts moving east... but under clear skies  Fog will form given the added moisture and also some patchy frost especially for south east Britain....So FOG will be an issue next week for some

fog.png

fogx.png

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
2 hours ago, Snipper said:

I ponder whether what happened back in 1946 is entirely relevant to some posts. Aren’t we in a different global situation? Yes look back but the situation now is entirely different. I seem to recall that this time last year some had already written off the winter. For some of us it was cold and extended. 

Indeed the globe is calling ,Try on you tube ....Tony Heller...

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You would have to imagine that there's some sort of decent cluster backing the op looking at the 240 EPS mean.

EDH1-240_hpa1.GIF

A better mean than the 0z.

Not too sure I'm liking where we're headed tbh Feb. From the analogues I've looked at, the most severe early winter spells have been preceded by some form of HP residing where the strongest core of the vortex is shown to reside on that mean chart. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
11 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Indeed the globe is calling ,Try on you tube ....Tony Heller...

Indeed the globe is calling for you to take off your tin foil hat....

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Not too sure I'm liking where we're headed tbh Feb. From the analogues I've looked at, the most severe early winter spells have been preceded by some form of HP residing where the strongest core of the vortex is shown to reside on that mean chart. 

You saying the high is a bit too far west too early?

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You saying the high is a bit too far west too early?

Bit too far west and I'm not seeing enough latitude to the heights neither-

This is where I'd prefer to see heights...

2009...

archivesnh-2009-11-13-0-0.png

archivesnh-2009-11-8-0-0.png

and 1962..

archivesnh-1962-11-20-0-0.png

Heights Scandi- Greenland will do little to ensure the trop causes maximum discomfort to the strat, they are easily overwhelmed.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
On ‎01‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 08:15, carinthian said:

You can say that again Fred. Woke up this morning and nearly chocked on my Alpin ! . That chart for the end of next week is just the worst set up for Euro high right over us. 16c forecast for the end of next week in Salzburg and here in the mountains 13 C  at 850mb pressure level ( 5,000ft asl)) That's crazy warmth. Rinse and Spin for the UK. Just ghastly.

C

untitled.png

43055754_1773415989423029_1109929350125322240_n.jpg

Extreme seasonal warmth for SE Europe this weekend. The summer does not want to end. Do not like this pattern establishing , seems mild locked in for many in Euroland for sometime to come. Think ski resort planners now worried about end of November start in some of the higher resorts. Currently freezing level over our mountains is 3500m.

850temp_anom_048-13.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Bit too far west and I'm not seeing enough latitude to the heights neither-

This is where I'd prefer to see heights...

archivesnh-2009-11-13-0-0.png

Found one half decent analogue match.

archivesnh-1995-11-3-0-0.png?

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
27 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Indeed the globe is calling for you to take off your tin foil hat....

What are you on about ? The ice age is coming ...anyway just wait...

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Posted
  • Location: Northallerton, N Yorks
  • Location: Northallerton, N Yorks

The weather looks to be stuck in a rut over the next week or so  and quite benign too away from the N & W.  Dare I say mild or very mild too! I guess this is typical of a jetstream which is meandering wildly and is weak in nature.  It can't stay mild and dry for the rest of November...or can it??  Oh...I'm hunting for cold too but we have winter to come.

David

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
40 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

What are you on about ? The ice age is coming ...anyway just wait...

I've been waiting for an ice age since 2012, still waiting...

Anyhow back on topic, still waiting for more promising charts in mid range. A very meridional jet stream pattern across the Northern hemisphere but the UK under mild southerlies for now.

GFSOPEU18_174_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

I've been waiting for an ice age since 2012, still waiting...

Anyhow back on topic, still waiting for more promising charts in mid range. A very meridional jet stream pattern across the Northern hemisphere but the UK under mild southerlies for now.

GFSOPEU18_174_1.png

And sadly I think quite cloudy southerlies so potentially very boring weather to come. At least sunshine could allow for some more notably high temperatures.

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