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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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^^ This is entirely why we are excluding the record positive +Strat zonal wind ATM because in terms of equilibrium the verical upward forcing is superior to the downwelling strat vortex 

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Looking at the GEFS 6z mean it could be a cold unsettled start to November and looking through the postage stamps there are some showing snow, especially further north and with elevation but a more wintry feel everywhere.

21_330_500mb.png

21_366_500mb.png

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The GEM trying to squeeze out a Greenland high at about day 7-

UKMO looking nice as well with the bowling ball trough dropping into Scandi-

E6FA7F3D-7C01-479E-9492-87C916BE1370.thumb.png.8dbb8e3e797aa60be54201b2c21c4c43.png

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COLD.

GEMOPEU12_222_2.png

 

This is the chart I want to verify, look at all the ridging at high lattitudes into the pole, cant wait to see this on meteociel when it comes out.

GFSOPEU12_348_1.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The GEM trying to squeeze out a Greenland high at about day 7-

UKMO looking nice as well with the bowling ball trough dropping into Scandi-

E6FA7F3D-7C01-479E-9492-87C916BE1370.thumb.png.8dbb8e3e797aa60be54201b2c21c4c43.png

Hello Steve 

check out the GFS 12z from day 11 to 16 . They are amazing N/H views . The PV ? What PV

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This would be a record breaking -OPI for any 31st October.

gfsnh-0-312_ixm4.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Just going to say this out of the blue...Yes it's mostly our favourite time of the year but please let's be realistic with what the models and showing...

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This would be a record breaking -OPI for any 31st October.

gfsnh-0-312_ixm4.png

Wow look at that the main part of the vortex all over the siberia area and the yellows building up over scandinavia and towards greenland. A good start for coldies

Edited by Snowjokes92
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I don't look at the MSLP graph for Greenland all that often , unless there's a Greenland high in the pipe line . But is this normal having some runs going off the scale with high pressure ??? 

IMG_2690.PNG

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13 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

 

Wow look at that the main part of the vortex all over the siberia area and the yellows building up over scandinavia and towards greenland. A good start for coldies

Yes - unbelievable - the only drawback is ive just got this nagging doubt at the back of my mind that this disruption to the PV and disconnection between strat and trop and promise in the threads and forums has happened a few years recently, only for the trop vortex to intensify late but very suddenly and never be threatened again, I just wonder if that's the reason we are getting cold springs - everything happening later.

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16 minutes ago, coldie said:

This is the model output looking for cold potential, if you want realism with what the models are showing you could always head over to the general model discussion thread instead?

Do the two have to be mutually exclusive, though? I love cold and snowy weather - but if it ain't there it ain't there...;)

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18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - unbelievable - the only drawback is ive just got this nagging doubt at the back of my mind that this disruption to the PV and disconnection between strat and trop and promise in the threads and forums has happened a few years recently, only for the trop vortex to intensify late but very suddenly and never be threatened again, I just wonder if that's the reason we are getting cold springs - everything happening later.

Was just thinking this. Haven't we had all this excitement recently over the past few years, only for the Vortex to ramp up anyway. Still taking all this excitement with a pinch of salt at the moment, but hoping for dear god that we have an epic Winter on the way.

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is also pointing towards colder Pm air longer term..getting the cold air in place would be good news for more widespread frosts if the high builds in again beyond day 10.

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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Ridging up into Greenland in week 3 on the EC46.

Mind you the way the 18z has started off, it could be Greeny heights in week 2 on the GFS!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ridging up into Greenland in week 3 on the EC46.

Mind you the way the 18z has started off, it could be Greeny heights in week 2 on the GFS!

Yes the 18z is on full throttle at 180 compared with the 12z 186

gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.a2af32e48edaf027bc4fc87bd40adbf4.pnggfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.e52ee61067c15a932a981048f60a993e.png

-8 knocking on the door in Scotland @192>

gfsnh-1-198.thumb.png.92c7c978676a0a6aae86adcba892ca76.png

there has been some cracking output in here today and for once i fealt cold this evening/night:cold:

Edited by Allseasons-si
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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes the 18z is on full throttle at 180 compared with the 12z 186

gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.a2af32e48edaf027bc4fc87bd40adbf4.pnggfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.e52ee61067c15a932a981048f60a993e.png

there has been some cracking output in here today and for once i fealt cold this evening/night:cold:

Yes, because of the timing, I don't think my CET October predictionof 10c has any chance of getting back on the menu, it would take the last 5 days of October to be around 10c below average for that but its getting colder with earch run.

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And the jma just keeps on giving! and giving! and giving!

just look at this NH view,bonkers!!!

JN264-21.thumb.GIF.90f91f31ddda2d09c35fb06808c0dd55.GIF

 

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7 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

@Catacol @Snowy Hibbo

Just to wrap a few more bits up-

Exert from twitter today showing the huge. - EPO ridge in September & how its POOR for cold / troughing on the east coast- its almost as of if they wrote exactly the same as me

WXRISK is Dave Tolleris - Professional Met.

EBCD0D9A-EA62-4E5B-8518-0BAB4ABDE76C.thumb.png.4acec42a26bdbe7e8894c8b3c06e46ce.pngF8C08B31-9DA5-4697-BD37-18EFBD386949.thumb.png.2d80f626c35301e181c970054951956e.png

Ridge on the east coast....

Just to close this down- 

A shallow ridge in the EPO position with a weak dip in the jet will bring cold to central & Eastern Canada- & of course possible parts of the NE-

However as you increase the intensity of the high - so you modify the depth of the trough in terms of how far it digs south-

The more negative it gets the further west & south the cold moves, & in proportion the warmer air moves further North & east along the eat coast-

When we are talking about record breaking intensity the trough will be digging down towards Texas ( hence the mention of texas snow over that period ) 

The fallout being that the NE part of the US will be warm all the way up to even quebec & it supports a ridge along the coast - hence the enhanced -PNA...

 

 

So to prove your point, you show the tweet of a "professional meteorologist", asking whether the -EPO means cold. I am not quite sure about his credentials.... I would find someone else to prove your argument. And then the replier didn't support your opinion, he said it was "tough".

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Lots of Northerlies on the GEFS.

 

First member of the season showing a genuine Arctic or Polar airmass that would have the potential for widespread low level snow.

gensnh-8-1-336_omi9.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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