Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[GeordieX9v]

Ridiculous charts from the GFS. Wish it was later in the year 

[weathergeek]

Mad charts!!!! Haven't ever seen it so busy in here in October before, lol!! After a wonderful summer of sun and heat, it's great to be back in here following the search for cold and snow! Thank you to all the knowledgeable people who post so clearly and help people like me understand so much more year on year - and get excited with It!!! Tee hee!!x

[Met4Cast]

A classic sign the GFS doesn't have a scooby is when absolutely nothing happens for several frames and then suddenly a dartboard low pops up out of no where as it reverts back to what it does best.

What happens after the Northerly still up for debate. Likelihood is for heights to rise across Scandinavia at least for a time, but how long that lasts is open to a lot of doubt.

Cracking charts on offer nonetheless.

 

Edited October 23, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[tight isobar]

two pics that show the current formats !!!..

And compare in view...perfectly !!

Edited October 23, 2018 by tight isobar

[andymusic]

While we wait for ECM's latest offerings we have what I can only describe as an amazing red sky with the sun setting in the west and the crazy full moon up in the east - and a cool to cold feeling in the air lol

[nick sussex]

Continued changes now with the outlook past the northerly .

The key thing in these situations is to maintain low pressure over northern Italy , this acts as a block to any milder air moving nw from the Med.

As we’ve seen today the main area of low heights to the nw doesn’t head se and instead energy disrupts se. 

Its still an evolving situation so past the northerly things could get a bit more interesting depending on where the models decide to stick low pressure to the south . And the orientation of the Scandi block , you really want that aligned from ene wsw so that could direct any deeper cold in towards the UK.

Edited October 23, 2018 by nick sussex

[Purga]

Wintry showers over the North York Moors anyone?

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What we are seeing is a move away from the hinting of  record warmth to a potential forward moving of attempt after attempt of a cold pattern and reloading wanting to take hold. This for me is what we seek, with a more ‘apparent’ route as we head to deep Nov. Encouraging indeed

Welcome to the LIA Footprint.....it is upon us

BFTP

Edited October 23, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Allseasons-Si]

The jma is super at 192

[weirpig]

A autumnal run from the ecm  and a possible northerly after 240  decent for late October  early November   not bitterly cold but not often we are one of the coldest places in Europe 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What we are seeing is a move away from the hinting of  record warmth to a potential forward moving of attempt after attempt of a cold pattern and reloading wanting to take hold. This for me is what we seek, with a more ‘apparent’ route as we head to deep Nov. Encouraging indeed

BFTP

Just so long as we see things edging away from full-blown zonality, I'm happy, Fred...As you say: it's encouraging.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Just so long as we see things edging away from full-blown zonality, I'm happy, Fred...As you say: it's encouraging.

Indeed Pete...and a very solid start mate

 

BFTP

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

P12 with a ridiculous amount of northern blocking 

P19 

P20 

NAVGEM 

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

P12 with a ridiculous amount of northern blocking 

 

That P12 chart is just bonkers! There is a massive amount of uncertainty in the GEFS at that time! here, this plot looks like a really bad brain scan of the northern hemisphere.

Will take a few days before the evolution post weekend northerly can be determined.  The main interest though is whether such mangled trop PV charts will persist into late November or winter proper. Hope so.  Interesting times, as it has been all year frankly!

Edited October 23, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That P12 chart is just bonkers! There is a massive amount of uncertainty in the GEFS at that time! here, this plot looks like a really bad brain scan of the northern hemisphere.

Will take a few days before the evolution post weekend northerly can be determined.  The main interest though is whether such mangled trop PV charts will persist into late November or winter proper. Hope so.  Interesting times, as it has been all year frankly!

IMO, even when there's a massive west-east zonal system working, things are chaotic enough; but, with synoptics as they currently are (in the run-up to a GSM?) with big blobs of HLB, it's even more difficult for the models to resolve than ever...?

As you say, it's been this way for almost a year already...and things could get worse (or better) before they get better (or worse)? 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All.... An Exceptional display of an undulating jet stream in the days ahead...so early in the season...and the Artic is so cold this year which will deliver snow on Northern hills ...Solar and Lunar activity to bear in mind....

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=15&ech=6&carte=1

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=15&ech=192&carte=1

 

all i say as the others on here are saying anything  could happen after 150 hr    cant  wait  to look in  the  morning!!

 

 

 

[Ladyofthestorm]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What we are seeing is a move away from the hinting of  record warmth to a potential forward moving of attempt after attempt of a cold pattern and reloading wanting to take hold. This for me is what we seek, with a more ‘apparent’ route as we head to deep Nov. Encouraging indeed

Welcome to the LIA Footprint.....it is upon us

BFTP

What's the LIA footprint Blasty?

[Chesil View]

19 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

What's the LIA footprint Blasty?

Hi Lady of the storm.

LIA stands for Little ice age

[Sky Full]

OMG.  What a time to be a weather enthusiast!  After some of the most eventful weather conditions to come our way in recent years showing up in just the last nine months alone, we now have the following charts on view in the pretty reliable short term  - and it's not even November yet!!

UKMO      

ECM         

GFS           

GEM.      .  

Surely this is the stuff of deep mid-winter?  No, it's just 144 hours away.   But the best thing is, it's brought back all the old NW Coldies to move this thread along at three pages a day and more.  Fantastic reading, hours of fun, informative, educational and sometime hilarious posts galore.  You just can't buy this stuff with money.  Thanks to everyone out there taking the trouble to make their thoughts known to us all - and helping me to understand a little more about this wonderful, chaotic, unpredictable thing we call WEATHER!

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all

just a quick one from me as i am suffering an eye problem due to being diagnosed with dry eye syndrome(grittyness in the eyes) and is quiet sore at the mo

the latest from cpc looks encouraging this evening both the 6-10 and 8-14 days

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

NAO/AO

both of these was forecasted to go neutral to slightly positive last evening but now we have a secondary dip esp the AO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Dutch de-built ens are showing all members going for easterly winds from Saturday through till Monday evening,what happens after that is anyones guess

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?type=eps_pluim

so there we have it,a northerly is cert and the easterly looks cert but beyond that,we will find out

going to put some more eyedrops in now and crack open some more beers

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

So lets have a look at the gfs 12z 24 hrs ago at 168 V todays 144 hrs on the left,we was talking about trough disruption against the block,now we are talking about an easterly although not cold enough but the synoptics are well worth a two pennath's talk about

the ecm more on the money as in terms of the right synoptics with both showing the easterly

today's/yesterdays

the 18z coming out now so i'd best check on it.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Another correction in our favour, -6c isotherm closer with a more vertical alignment to pole of Atlantic troughing.

Edited October 23, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

-8c nearly clipping shetland.

[Allseasons-Si]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another correction in our favour -6c isotherm closer with a more vertical alignment to pole of Atlantic troughing.

This is looking good at 144 with more WAA into the north(black arrow),more trough disruption(red arrow),better height's to our NE and the Genoa low more to the east(brown circle).

but i look no further as it's a mess,but saying that the 144 hr chart is miles different to the 12z anyway so a lot to be resolved still before then.

Edited October 23, 2018 by Allseasons-si