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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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59 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

could well be .... the eps clusters are singular days 8 thru 11 high - tells you plenty, given that we know there isn’t a singular option ...... beyond that it’s hardly worth analysing as the preceding period is so uncertain 

Hi Blue, the model they use is singular but am told has very powerful storage and has been consistent with its out-put to the month ending. However, this is only one forecasting tool that like the other bigger models is not infallible as we all know to our costs. Consistency has been its theme and that is for Arctic ridging and meridional flow into Europe during the last week of this month which basically leads to a wintry outlook for many.

C

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18 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Feb’s earlier comment about the atmosphere being at a pre-disposition to blocking is in a nutshell is why we have much cause to be optimistic going towards the first month of winter proper. 

There is no sign of a prolonged global flat jet. It’s a multiwave undulating feature that will wax and wane from the Pacific to us for the foreseeable. The models are going to have great difficulties interpreting downstream effects. The MJO in phase 5, not withstanding the big differences between the current NCEP and ECMWF forecasts, always seems to give poor data issues. I have always assumed it must be down to the topography of the locale, as opposed to a nice flat big ocean. I may completely wrong on that though.

It all makes for fun (and fraught) model watching, that’s for sure.

Just as i say that the GEFS mean looks flat at 384! (although less pronounced than those usual purple looking Greenland profiles at this time of the year) and the EPS graph suggests similar, however, its not one of those times when i think that another dip wont start coming into the D10-15 timeframe soon, I dont care what people think of me, sometimes you can just write of December at this point but this is definitely not one of those times, i still personally think January the best bet for the best spell of the winter but December still holds interest - for now anyway.

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