Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Hahahaha the posts of panic from posters these last couple of days is unbelievable. People need to calm down and reflect what is actually happening. Not often you get high pressure in charge of proceedings around our neck of the woods at this time of the year.. let's see what happens next but I believe that this won't be the last we've seen of the wintery charts. Let's wait and see what happens in December 👌🥊😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO extended is reasonably close to ECM at D7 

ecm2.2018112412_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.69aeb546c51be791b28d125a586d08c5.pngukm2.2018112412_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.8bf87b82bbf2308876977bb6a608500a.png

Most likely areas to see the most precipitation are the east coast and in the SW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Fair enough but IMO thats what ensembles are for, the time when operational's throw out a questionable solution.

Past the time when individual members start to go their own separate ways, I tend to ignore the lot...unless any show a predilection for knee-deep snow, massive drifts or freezing fog, of course - in which case, they're the bees knees!😁

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It might not be something that many people want to hear but I think we need to be patient here. I've seen a tweet from Fergie saying that the GLOSEA output is skewed towards a -NAO January/February time. Which fits my thoughts. Moreover, all of the long range tools are coming together on this outcome now...even the CFS which has shown nothing but zonal for winter until recently on the mean charts

glbz700MonInd2.gif

Sounds promising. Doesn’t mean December will necessarily be without interest too though!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Past the time when individual members start to go their own separate ways, I tend to ignore the lot...unless any show a predilection for knee-deep snow, massive drifts or freezing fog, of course - in which case, they're the bees knees!😁

Never thought you went in for all that James Madden school of forecasting stuff!! - thought you hated him with a passion.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, MattStoke said:

Sounds promising. Doesn’t mean December will necessarily be without interest too though!

Exactly. It's still early, and for the first time in years I'm not stressed out at all about prospects.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Long wait ?

have you got any charts to show to back this up ?

No as gfs(p) doesn’t go any further. 15 years of viewing NWP and the laws of physics say it will be it be a relatively long wait for anything wintery from that position. I’m not making a forecast or trolling, just commenting on the FV3 and interested as to why some are so excited by it! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It might not be something that many people want to hear but I think we need to be patient here. I've seen a tweet from Fergie saying that the GLOSEA output is skewed towards a -NAO January/February time. Which fits my thoughts. Moreover, all of the long range tools are coming together on this outcome now...even the CFS which has shown nothing but zonal for winter until recently on the mean charts

glbz700MonInd2.gif

CFS is currently punting December and January to be the cooler of the three winter months in our vicinity. February the mildest.

Edited by blizzard81

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, blizzard81 said:

CFS is currently punting December and January to be the cooler of the three winter months in our vicinity.

The temperature anomalies are a waste of time IMO

Look at the pressure anomalies and the pressure anomalies alone and you're more likely to gauge a generalised likelihood of a predominating synoptic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It might not be something that many people want to hear but I think we need to be patient here. I've seen a tweet from Fergie saying that the GLOSEA output is skewed towards a -NAO January/February time. Which fits my thoughts. Moreover, all of the long range tools are coming together on this outcome now...even the CFS which has shown nothing but zonal for winter until recently on the mean charts

glbz700MonInd2.gif

Will be interesting few weeks, majority of background signals favour blocked pattern into mid December. I wonder what changed for GLOSEA to suddenly flip to blocked average 3 month winter pattern in most recent update.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bullseye said:

Will be interesting few weeks, majority of background signals favour blocked pattern into mid December. I wonder what changed for GLOSEA to suddenly flip to blocked average 3 month winter pattern in most recent update.

Good question rgds to Glosea...

Im left wondering with the pressure charts if the model is seeing a strat event...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Good question rgds to Glosea...

Im left wondering with the pressure charts if the model is seeing a strat event...

 

I would think that being so deep into the season that this anomaly is suggested, it will be strat initiated in some form or another. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Weatherwise this looks dire: 8C, damp with occasional rain or drizzle?

Netweather GFS Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The temperature anomalies are a waste of time IMO

Look at the pressure anomalies and the pressure anomalies alone and you're more likely to gauge a generalised likelihood of a predominating synoptic.

Just taken a look at the latest cfs monthlies and I see what you mean.  However, the meto update today is very bullish about blocking returning to the uk mid December along with the associated dip in temps. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The temperature anomalies are a waste of time IMO

Look at the pressure anomalies and the pressure anomalies alone and you're more likely to gauge a generalised likelihood of a predominating synoptic.

Yes - i know interitus doesn't agree but it makes you wonder what those temperature anomalies are measured against on the long range models, ive seen a -ve upper 850's deviation of 6c on those yet the 2m temps only showing a couple of degrees below average before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.edd57e113a6b3a459a13bfd0ab0475c2.png

This low pressure coming out of Newfoundland is important. Which way will it go?

For a strong greenland high we want it to follow the black arrow. High pressure towards the Greenland region is built and warm air advection on its western flank can reinforce it.

If it follows the red arrow we get more energy to our SW whilst cutting off warm air supply to western Greenland, both increasing the likelihood the block will sink.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Better run coming up here- marginally at present...

gfsnh-0-138.png?18

That N Scandi trough quicker to drop and therefore looking to detach the E Euro heights from the Icelandic blocking quicker...that's what we need to see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gfs upgrading on this run better heights in Iceland/Greenland scandi trough better position.  Come on Ireland 🏉

Screenshot_20181117-221336_Chrome.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gfs upgrading on this run better heights in Iceland/Greenland scandi trough better position.  Come on Ireland 🏉

Screenshot_20181117-221336_Chrome.jpg

Aye. Better chance of getting something from the northeast?

Netweather GFS Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.adffbe77a9639a15bbeafdf7c01c3ab8.pngThe low is getting stuck near Newfoundland and the orientation of the Greenland high is changing!

12z had it moving slowly eastwards, a factor in aiding the block collapse. Its holding up better here though. Notice sub -5C uppers are heading back in from the east.

It may not work out but this run is another little step in the right direction. Rather then the high falling over Europe it may well fall to the west of the UK on this run (or I could be wrong...)

Edited by Quicksilver1989

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z looks mainly cold dry..

Lets hope this trend continues in the morning..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It might not be something that many people want to hear but I think we need to be patient here. I've seen a tweet from Fergie saying that the GLOSEA output is skewed towards a -NAO January/February time. Which fits my thoughts. Moreover, all of the long range tools are coming together on this outcome now...even the CFS which has shown nothing but zonal for winter until recently on the mean charts

glbz700MonInd2.gif

Most of those great winters of the 80's didn't get going until into the New Year.  Needless to say 1981 being the exception of course!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...