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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
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Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Seems to be a lot of jumping off a cliff type posts about EC eps/means etc this evening...

    Seems to me UKMO is leading the way here and it barely gets a look in.

    Not a criticism guys .. its great debate and all..

     

     

    Gfs para has been leading the way for 2 days are more now and ukmo jumped ship to it did it not?

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    whilst there is still plenty of time for things to change, the eps now clearly sees a failure of Euro low heights in the 7/10 day period ..... infact we see what were low anomalys a few days ago replaced by high ones

    This is what I was posting about earlier, everyone seems too focused on NAO region,yet no one mentioned that this low pressure system which will travel through central Europe tomorrow will stall around UK and with it advecting high pressure from south to mainland Europe,I also mentioned it days ago where I could see the progressive ECMWF calling halt  to a promising looking cold spell in central/mainland Europe. I know its only November, but watch out for that quasi permanent feature to stick around this winter, it was there from 10-26.12 on ECMWF 46 day. Its making its appearance way before any outputs suggested even remotely up until today

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    I like the URMO 144, the flow is forced by the high pressure wedge in the north, which pushes Scandi.

    In return, we can attract some very cold winds along with a strong signal for Atlantic / Greenland Ridge and an SCRU channel beyond this stage.

    It seems that the final pattern will be with some kind of Atlantic ridge, it's the way we got there which could potentially prevent any other kind of animal.

    But as I said, the UKMO 144 looks great if you read the potential development from here.

    I know we are not seeing any WAA to increase the height in our length, because ICON shows, but in any way it can help long term with WAA in the West ... we'll see this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

    The issue is twofold. Firstly, even though there are residual heights left towards Greenland (owing to a ridge thrown up in the Atlantic) the main bulk of heights slip SE. This stops any pressure falls across SE Europe, and so no encouragement for that LP to the SW to head back ESE as an absorbed feature within the Atlantic troughing. Secondly, the trough becomes disconnected from the main jet, stateside, which means we end up with LP stuck in the Atlantic with nowhere to go. 

    Aaron 

    one issue.....we are going to be cold for a long time ?

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Who cares? The high res det was hopelessly wrong at 144 this morning...?

    I take it your not a fan of ensembles as a forecasting tool then, a lot on here aren't but i just don't see any better tool for D10-15 range, yes i know projections of the MJO, AAM etc are a requisite if mid-long range forecasting but even those surely require some model based input - unless your as clever as GP of course!

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    I take it your not a fan of ensembles as a forecasting tool then, a lot on here aren't but i just don't see any better tool for D10-15 range, yes i know projections of the MJO, AAM etc are a requisite if mid-long range forecasting but even those surely require some model based input - unless your as clever as GP of course!

    If the high res det was wrong at 120 i'll not concern myself with eps at day 12...

    Ps i wish i was as clever as GP!!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    If the high res det was wrong at 120 i'll not concern myself with eps at day 12...

    Ps i wish i was as clever as GP!!?

    Fair enough but IMO thats what ensembles are for, the time when operational's throw out a questionable solution.

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
    11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Assuming gfs has a handle on what’s  going on in the Indian Ocean ........

    Bingo... spot the odd one out. Looks a little excitable to me vs. the rest. In fact it's jumped in amplitude since the official CPC update on Monday, a noticeable uptick..

    1993995847_MJOGEFS.thumb.gif.bf0c71a8c24490fa5e952295654ddc8d.gif

    ECMF_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.ee7a0d80e2dd0c939e8b3852c1c740c8.gifJMAN_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.e01b4cadfe5a5d6bd620c4d8bdd81abc.gifCFSO_phase_small.thumb.gif.83afe0e3df392a36766ec68426d90dcb.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Lots of hopes being pinned on the fv3 / GFS(p) this evening so I went to have a look...It has winter being ushered in by mild south westerlies and low heights to our north and west.????

    1F84E14D-10DC-4256-B599-0F2CA1C475C5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    Lots of hopes being pinned on the fv3 / GFS(p) this evening so I went to have a look...It has winter being ushered in by mild south westerlies and low heights to our north and west.????

    1F84E14D-10DC-4256-B599-0F2CA1C475C5.png

    I assume it's short term and the evolution of the low next week that caught peoples attention. 

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    16 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

    Bingo... spot the odd one out. Looks a little excitable to me vs. the rest. In fact it's jumped in amplitude since the official CPC update on Monday, a noticeable uptick..

    1993995847_MJOGEFS.thumb.gif.bf0c71a8c24490fa5e952295654ddc8d.gif

    ECMF_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.ee7a0d80e2dd0c939e8b3852c1c740c8.gifJMAN_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.e01b4cadfe5a5d6bd620c4d8bdd81abc.gifCFSO_phase_small.thumb.gif.83afe0e3df392a36766ec68426d90dcb.gif

    Tbh..the phasing is as complex as the raws atm...transition stage !!1-8..

    With the 'maritime' phase in a-waiting!!

    ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

    EC mean is a little difficult to work out

    351228971_Screenshot2018-11-17at19_29_16.thumb.png.a26b4f522220e3a503617e6673234f60.png

    Support for the Griceland high but also support for heights to fall into Europe too so as suspected I think the clusters are going to be far more helpful here

    I can find some light in the eps .... control is with op ....

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    6 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

    I assume it's short term and the evolution of the low next week that caught peoples attention. 

    Perhaps I need to lower my expectations then as it only has 2-3 days with t850hpa below -6c in central areas and no notable snow, its then back to average with a long wait for the next cold snap. 

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Can only be ..encouraging●

    Ruminating on the sst's!!!..

    Dictating the at-least pacific noting!!

    sstanim.gif

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    whilst there is still plenty of time for things to change, the eps now clearly sees a failure of Euro low heights in the 7/10 day period ..... infact we see what were low anomalys a few days ago replaced by high ones

    This is why I stressed earlier how important it is to see those cold members increase. The opposite has happened. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    59 minutes ago, jules216 said:

    This is what I was posting about earlier, everyone seems too focused on NAO region,yet no one mentioned that this low pressure system which will travel through central Europe tomorrow will stall around UK and with it advecting high pressure from south to mainland Europe,I also mentioned it days ago where I could see the progressive ECMWF calling halt  to a promising looking cold spell in central/mainland Europe. I know its only November, but watch out for that quasi permanent feature to stick around this winter, it was there from 10-26.12 on ECMWF 46 day. Its making its appearance way before any outputs suggested even remotely up until today

    Why do you think this will stick around for winter?

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    Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton
    21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Perhaps I need to lower my expectations then as it only has 2-3 days with t850hpa below -6c in central areas and no notable snow, its then back to average with a long wait for the next cold snap. 

    Long wait ?

    have you got any charts to show to back this up ?

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=15&amp;ech=372&amp;mode=0&amp;carte=1

     

    i know what the  gfs  is saying but fantasy world is different here  aft 288 hr

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    3 minutes ago, Pajcov said:

    Sorry for my lack of knowledge but can anyone explain what this means.. cheers..

    6D8C620F-4EED-4853-B45D-0F084E3759E8.png

    Good for Northern blocking, I believe.

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