Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 4.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Trust me, that's not a tropospheric vortex that's about to set up shop for the duration. More the exact opposite, particularly when you look at what's going on in the stratosphere.  Think lorries

It's a pity the debate broke down a bit on here today - there were some interesting points made and I'll stick to these. Tamara is fundamentally right - the blocking pattern that is emerging for

Convectively coupled tropical wave passage through the Indian Ocean ... check. Resultant spike in the Asian Jet and introduction of westerlies on the back equatorward momentum transport...G

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    The 'noted' ...long draw north african exactions...are just the notion of a gaining and squeeze of model alignment.

    The overall pic- paints a different story.. and the decipher of inter/raw model analysis corrects this...

    I'll leave you with these...and tmoz a realise of overall raw..and intangled synop's!!!

    Edit:..this all b4 the 18z jog out and likely refine the options !!!

    MT8_London_ens (1).png

    Edited by tight isobar
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

    The 'noted' ...long draw north african exactions...are just the notion of a gaining and squeeze of model alignment.

    The overall pic- paints a different story.. and the decipher of inter/raw model analysis corrects this...

    I'll leave you with these...and tmoz a realise of overall raw..and intangled synop's!!!

    MT8_London_ens (1).png

    In English? You may want to check the date of those ensembles ?

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    In English? You may want to check the date of those ensembles ?

    Yup....i realise.there the 18z..from the run previous!..

    So i highlighted/posted for tonights compare.....18z...pattern/diverse.

    PS:.. if you 'cannot' decipher/understand that...-in PLAIN ENGLISH-.... then i concern about your divulge!!!!!!?

     

    Chucking in the 500 geo-pots.. and they are of align....'in a sort' !!!

    EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_204.jpg

    Edited by tight isobar
    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    15 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    The 'noted' ...long draw north african exactions...are just the notion of a gaining and squeeze of model alignment.

    The overall pic- paints a different story.. and the decipher of inter/raw model analysis corrects this...

    I'll leave you with these...and tmoz a realise of overall raw..and intangled synop's!!!

    Edit:..this all b4 the 18z jog out and likely refine the options !!!

    MT8_London_ens (1).png

    Model alignment being squeezed even by the notion of ensembles can often be a good thing.. synops are very intagled today I suspect because of how raw they are, often they’re closer to as medium rare. 

    Having said the above, the 18z I suspect will continue the theme and hopefully we see the signal for the Scandi high strengthen within the ensembles.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs
    24 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Yup....i realise.there the 18z..from the run previous!..

    So i highlighted/posted for tonights compare.....18z...pattern/diverse.

    That ensemble chart is 5 days old matey 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    21 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    ...and finally these little fella's maybe paying a visit this weekend to enjoy what's left of our summer barbeque's

    polar_bear_fire.thumb.jpg.27761f3e79fe381e38786104226af23d.jpg

    oh wait!!!,the ecm is showing  a spanish plume later next week,com'on guy's we are off.....

    zlQaidalxUqc3GLYx9KIPw2.thumb.gif.42fbacdcf1dc0b92422b833eb98e347a.gif

     

    It does look like on those NOAA anomaly charts a Scandinavian ridge developing, marked out by those positive anomalies and the big bend in the upper flow in that area.

    A great post I have to say. Provided a lot of chuckles! May just be one of the funniest I’ve stumbled across in the thread this year. ?

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    It does look like on those NOAA anomaly charts a Scandinavian ridge developing, marked out by those positive anomalies and the big bend in the upper flow in that area.

    A great post I have to say. Provided a lot of chuckles! May just be one of the funniest I’ve stumbled across in the thread this year. ?

    Thanks

    i do like to add a little touch of humour as well as debating the models to enlighten the mood and i am sure others will apreciate that too

    not to derail the thread now,the 18z is churning out and i will like to see the 18z to pick up it's heels and follow that ecm:D

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    38 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

    That ensemble chart is 5 days old matey 

    ..5 days as a guide..

    Then you take the raw outs-into contention...

    And always ..ALWAYS refer to ens-as a guidence to any operational ! .

    Then you can have a reference to all mentioned.

    And again...watch 4 compare via suite movement...and compare...

    To which i will highlight..

    With open model synop..its about exaction of suite referal...

    Without mention of deeper overiding factors...

    That i WILL be sporting..as we evolve.

    Lets 'await the ensembles'...

    Mjo orbit...phasing ..also resembles..the line of thought!!

     

     

    Do we need to get to spaghetti 'plates' ??!!

    ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

    Edited by tight isobar
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Heavy frontal snow coming up on GFS.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Heavy frontal snow coming up on GFS.

    Maybe an illustration or two? ?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Maybe an illustration or two? ?

    It pivoted, i thought it was going to be a slow-stall-situ-slider

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Heavy frontal snow coming up on GFS.

    The uk gfs 18z shows the front pivoting and futher west compared with the 12z

    174-779UK.thumb.GIF.1a6b69c6100379fe6109d9bd754cab33.GIF180-779UK.thumb.GIF.a7d5f6e05224202d64f0691072865919.GIF

    i was more inclined to the heights building behind the trough up into Greenland and N Scandinavia forcing more pressure on the trough further south

    gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.0e1aa48eac766af490e7f92eb2944c8d.png

    yep!,keep on pushing further south:D

    gfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.2ace539b6997996b19c24d555885421d.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

    upgrades to the "slider" seem to be stepping forward bit by bit as each model run roles out - let's see where we are in a day or so, could be very interesting

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    We are 6 - 8 weeks too early - but after a rather Nina-esque fall in GLAAM we are now seeing a steep rise in the calculated overall tendency

    spike.thumb.png.b8172d270653af1f5a680fa69a1a53bb.png

    This early season mid atlantic ridge scenario produced off the back of the fall

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_1.png

    should be replaced by a much more meridional pattern conducive to the high lat blocks that we so crave in winter. EPS shows this well at 7 days' range

    ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_7.png

    Where after this? It's still a bit early to get excited to be honest - charts like this in late December would offer snowfall to parts of lowland Britain but right now it is too early. But with the MJO passing through phases 8-1 I'd take a stab at the rather blocked pattern continuing through to mid November.

    Edited by Catacol
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    57 minutes ago, andymusic said:

    upgrades to the "slider" seem to be stepping forward bit by bit as each model run roles out - let's see where we are in a day or so, could be very interesting

    Yes although uppers would need to be a fair bit colder.

    Nevertheless the 18z ensembles are looking substantially colder, many more have undercutting lows with the -5C isotherm over the UK on Tuesday  still.

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    confused math GIF by CBC

    Back to the model output and the GFS is not backing down from the very cold uppers, may see some lower lying areas see some snow/wintry showers. Meteociel precpitation forecasts suggest so!

    Modele GFS - Carte prévisions Modele GFS - Carte prévisions Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

    Perhaps Wales and Scotland could do pretty well? Maybe a bit of sleet in some of the east coast showers?

    GFSOPEU18_153_2.png

    Impressive early cold pool over Scandi on Monday.

    A few people saying they are worried about getting cold synoptics now. The weather does not have a budget, the weather gods don't think 'Ah I used up 6 easterlies in November so I won't use any more for the winter'. The weather will do whatever it wants and all we can look at are long range signals for an inkling and hope they persist into the short range. Enjoy the ride. Look at November 2010 or November 1878 for blocked Novembers leading to very good winters.

    The first half of Nov 10 was among the mildest on record, i think people's memories are getting skewed.

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Snow for SW as cold air undercuts from SE.

    gfsnh-0-174_wlk1.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    morning  all  all i say  after Wednesday  the weather   is looking  interesting   to say  the least  to well   in to deep fantasy world

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=6

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Wow GFS ramping up any one order cold start to winter 1034734948_gfs-0-192(2).thumb.png.7383ff12fb818f9cdc2b610fee382142.png

    It's a Steve murr special 

    ECM not without interest either.

    ECM1-168.thumb.gif.15d63d4b3aa75741cb001f97f0f1d65a.gif

    Edited by MR EXTREMES
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    GFS 00z bit of a downgrade - still N flow established but less in the way of ppn.

    Best bet Scotland  - Cheviots  -  Northumbria  - N Pennines Friday PM

    h500slp.thumb.png.48853530d7ae608996f35abc481f0466.png

    Wales risk increase Saturday?

    uksnowrisk.thumb.png.b7da936cf4e1a06ae0e3d7510e2ce119.png

    Iain

     

    Edited by Iceaxecrampon
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

    GFS 00z bit of a downgrade - still N flow established but less in the way of ppn.

    Best bet Scotland  - Cheviots  -  Northumbria  - N Pennines Friday PM

    h500slp.thumb.png.48853530d7ae608996f35abc481f0466.png

    Wales risk increase Saturday?

    uksnowrisk.thumb.png.b7da936cf4e1a06ae0e3d7510e2ce119.png

    Iain

     

    Wouldn't worry too much about the GFS PPN charts, they're useless at the best of times.

    The APERGE is just coming into range of Saturday morning and shows a stream of showers across Northern Scotland and down the Eastern and Western coasts.

    Scotland.thumb.jpg.cf0616f73e9d760f9e7ab4f89ae316f2.jpg

    Turning wintry across Scotland, probably some hail and thunder mixed in along coastal areas. I suspect Saturday night into Sunday will hold the greatest potential for a wider snowfall risk

     

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Week Ahead: Bimbling lows keeping the weather unsettled, showery and cool

      Low pressure is going to keep doing its thing during the upcoming week, rolling in from the Atlantic, then hanging around to bring days of sunshine and showers with occasional longer spells of rain. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-16 06:49:50 Valid: 16/05/2021 0600 - 17/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 16TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-15 09:37:16 Valid: 15/05/2021 0600 - 16/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 15TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...