Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
42 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Well yes, the GFS does tend to change sometimes on output 10 days out. Would be silly to call the matter settled either way at this juncture. Ensembles will be interesting for this run. 

 

There are obviously big changes in having the high sink SE rather than retrogress in semi-reliable time-frame. 10 day chart was simply to highlight the point but here are 5 day comparisons. 

gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-0-120.png

 

Ensembles are pretty solidly behind that idea so although I wouldn't rule out a fast rout to a Greenland high it looks like we are looking at a more tortuous rout to a block that can bring in a proper cold pattern.

As far as GFS FI is concerned I don't think it has much of Scooby doo at the moment.

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

There are obviously big changes in having the high sink SE rather than retrogress in semi-reliable time-frame. 10 day chart was simply to highlight the point but here are 5 day comparisons. 

gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-0-120.png

 

Ensembles are pretty solidly behind that idea so although I wouldn't rule out a fast root to a Greenland high it looks like we are looking at a more tortuous root to a block that can bring in a proper cold pattern.

As far as GFS FI is concerned I don't think it has much of Scooby doo at the moment.

The one main concern from the GEFS for me is that it's all going rather flat in FI

Yes it's a mean chart but to me we're seeing the tell tale 'loop' pattern around the hemisphere (especially Pacific side) which suggests we may have to endure a period of some form of zonality eventually

gensnh-21-1-312.png

The Atlantic side does look a bit more 'blocked' though (perhaps more mid lat than high lat) which suggests my idea of a UK HP into December may not be an outlandish one...

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
9 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gfs para having another go.

Screenshot_20181117-051942_Chrome.jpg

It shows how fine the margins are since day 5 it is very similar to the Op

gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-0-120.png

Just 24h later. The speed and sharpness of the Scandi trough prevents the high sinking fully through Scandi. All a bit tenuous.

gfsnh-0-168.pnggfsnh-0-168.png

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

There are obviously big changes in having the high sink SE rather than retrogress in semi-reliable time-frame. 10 day chart was simply to highlight the point but here are 5 day comparisons. 

gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-0-120.png

 

Ensembles are pretty solidly behind that idea so although I wouldn't rule out a fast root to a Greenland high it looks like we are looking at a more tortuous root to a block that can bring in a proper cold pattern.

As far as GFS FI is concerned I don't think it has much of Scooby doo at the moment.

Then again the UKMO is different as well. 

UE120-21.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

It shows how fine the margins are since day 5 it is very similar to the Op

gfsnh-0-120.pnggfsnh-0-66.png

Just 24h later. The speed and sharpness of the Scandi trough prevents the high sinking fully through Scandi. All a bit tenuous.

gfsnh-0-168.pnggfsnh-0-168.png

Yea but always good to have ukmo on your side it looks to be in best position for cold this morning so it's ukmo gem gfs para v Gfs op.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Then again the UKMO is different as well. 

UE120-21.gif

UKMO isn't bad IMO. Has the sharp trough that would prevent the high sinking back into Scandi

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

You say not even the top dog posters can pretend they know what will happen yet you then say there won't be a proper countrywide cold spell for a few weeks? So how do you know that? There does seem to be a gradual shift of the potential I'll admit with the Greenland high ridge signal weakening but we could easily be having a different conversation by this time tomorrow, thats the beauty/frustration of model watching. Of course we are definately going to head into a chillier spell of weather in anycase even if the snowfall potential looks limited although perhaps slightly interestingly one that may throw a few surprises if the trough does head close to the UK and there is still some cold air wrapped around it. 

So at this stage, don't rule anything out for November just yet. 

Not so long ago you were ruling out a cold spell when a decent percentage of the suite were suggesting it was possible, now the modelling is collapsing, your questioning why im ruling out one  in the near future,

Diagramme GEFS

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO isn't bad IMO. Has the sharp trough that would prevent the high sinking back into Scandi

Ukmo is excellent this morning it's all about the Azores high ridging in and strengthen the heights around iceland/Greenland and the sharp trough moving down scandi.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

I'm not surprised by the lack of comments on the ecm.....its pretty poor 5 days out with the cold uppers all but gone...It just goes to show you can have good ensemble agreement.....super means and still find the pear!! The ecm was miles ahead of gfs in this particular cold spell

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Of course GFs goes one way then ECM goes the other, as Steve says it is a mess.

Still a chance of a last gasp Greeny high just nothing like as strong or clean as we were hoping

ECH1-168.GIF?17-12

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

 

13 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I'm not surprised by the lack of comments on the ecm.....its pretty poor 5 days out with the cold uppers all but gone...It just goes to show you can have good ensemble agreement.....super means and still find the pear!! The ecm was miles ahead of gfs in this particular cold spell

Any chance of the lotto numbers bit earlier to be calling ecm win when you have 3 other models not agreeing ukmo gem & gfs para.

Ecm even disagrees with you.

Screenshot_20181117-064250_Chrome.jpg

Edited by booferking
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
12 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I'm not surprised by the lack of comments on the ecm.....its pretty poor 5 days out with the cold uppers all but gone...It just goes to show you can have good ensemble agreement.....super means and still find the pear!! The ecm was miles ahead of gfs in this particular cold spell

I think it worth watching/waiting another 24 hours or so. T144 is not resolved and until that is worked out anything beyond is fi imo. Blocked is still the theme and whilst it is there, many chances for it to set up in the “right” place in either the shorter/medium term.

F466A12A-5D1A-4F70-9EE4-BD75D8FDBFFF.png

6E71C189-58A0-4898-A1F3-A7FF34B18B86.png

FE8C2E14-069B-4295-9EBD-D15A967FE24B.png

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

The one main concern from the GEFS for me is that it's all going rather flat in FI

Yes it's a mean chart but to me we're seeing the tell tale 'loop' pattern around the hemisphere (especially Pacific side) which suggests we may have to endure a period of some form of zonality eventually

gensnh-21-1-312.png

The Atlantic side does look a bit more 'blocked' though (perhaps more mid lat than high lat) which suggests my idea of a UK HP into December may not be an outlandish one...

It is true GFS FI has gone flat with a lot more Atlantic influence in the ensembles but I think that is just a case of it losing any signal, it is just random noise at the moment.

Edited by Mucka
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

What a total mess

Model of the day UKMO ! again

UKMO / GEM / GFS P v ECM / GFS

Such disparity at just 120-  I will place my eggs in the UKMO basket...

Agree with you there. A horrible mess, and as I said earlier, not settled either way with the output still conflicting at only 120h out. Hoping the UKMO has it nailed. If it was meto and ecm vs gfs I'd be more certain but as it stands there is still uncertainty. *edit.... What are you up to now ecm you sly dog. 

Edited by Seasonality
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, in agreement with the others, a total mess this morning.

No cross model agreement ..more runs needed..

Is there not agreement in the reliable that the low pressure to our South moves up over us to a degree that the cold uppers get mixed out? Okay the ukmo does look that bit better and the trend beyond a week is up for grabs but the short term Easterly has lost a fair bit of its punch by day 6

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Is there not agreement in the reliable that the low pressure to our South moves up over us to a degree that the cold uppers get mixed out? Okay the ukmo does look that bit better and the trend beyond a week is up for grabs but the short term Easterly has lost a fair bit of its punch by day 6

Yes i meant at around 120-144

Don't like GFS, don't like EC, but ukmo looks good at 144.

Add to that EC , while not nice longer term is different to previous runs..

But in essence, i agree, the low to our south is a real pain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Interestingly GEM and UKMO are very closely aligned at 144 and GEM goes onto produce a decent run with the PV well and truly dispatched.

Fingers crossed for UKMO/GEM style evolution!!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Just to understand why I can diss a model when I know its churning out rubbish-

All models have crashed & burned on accuracy at day 5 & 6 but ECM has gone to the bottom of the pile - 

Leading the way is the NAVGEM lol - Never said that before-

Anyway total inconsistency from the ECM so its going in the bin. Again.

192 V 192 12z / 00z only 12 hours difference

331EE151-60C5-4088-A7A3-12ACF6C71CB5.thumb.jpeg.b0562d623bcc9ac304cd8db961cb8e1b.jpegE793050B-5E9F-4803-861F-6AE140DCCF25.thumb.jpeg.7f4a7f39ad102af5bf14534989c593ad.jpeg

 

I would think the ecm was first to pick up the signal of the low off our southwest becoming more of a player. When the gfs was churing run after run of bitter cold the ecm was almost always saying no.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I would think the ecm was first to pick up the signal of the low off our southwest becoming more of a player. When the gfs was churing run after run of bitter cold the ecm was almost always saying no.

The gfs, when showing bitter cold, was at a time frame the ecm didn’t go to. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Tthe differences between EC and UKMO are really quite stark this morning.

The EC has the scandy high sagging at 144, UKMO does not, it has a cut off high around Iceland.

Huge ramifications moving forward from there.

In truth who knows which model is correct.

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...