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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Just now, mulzy said:

Indeed NWS.

To me, nothing much has changed - blocked and cold for the foreseeable.

The voice of reason!!

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Well thank you kindly for your forecasts, Mr GFS and Mr ECM...It's time to face the music!

 

 

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ECM looks OK to me. Plunge of cold into Europe at 168 hours. Blocking high pressure still to our north.

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Compare last night's ecm 192hrs chart to tonight's 168hrs. I see quite a big improvement there for longer term prospects. 

ECH1-168.gif

ECH1-192 (1).gif

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4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

168hrs isn't terrible, heights possibly re-building towards Scandinavia again

168.thumb.gif.5f09503466896aec5f0220be76d5db59.gif

Anybody else getting model fatigue already?

Yep, sort of. Does get exhausting watching every single model run come out and the anxiety it causes, despite trying to be positive about it all. Can be so awfully addictive lol. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Can i just remind you all just over a week ago we were staring down the barrel of wind and rain and indeed flooding, complete zonal trash, so even if the ecm is right, I for one will be greatful for the seasonal feel!

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The bay of biscay low refuses to sink south but the Icelandic high is only too willing to oblige unfortunately. 

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possibly a second push of heights heading into Greenland by 192 and certainly doesn't scream raging Atlantic / zonal to me 

168 ECH101-168.GIF?16-0 192 ECH101-192.GIF?16-0 216 ECH101-216.GIF?16-0heights.thumb.png.19b2b4a62f22fe11f5138c2f1add7c76.png

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather
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10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

We need to be looking West in these scenarios. At T+168 the potential is still there

Indeed, and this tee- up of a possible potent Northerly is only just behind some of the stonker GEFS members in terms of timeframe.

ECH1-216_iix5.GIF

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216hr chart has the high sinking and the frigid cold slipping away to our east. A familiar tale. 

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1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

possibly a second push of heights heading into Greenland by 192 and certainly doesn't scream raging Atlantic / zonal to me tempresult_www9.gif    

Agree, 192 doesn't look too bad. The way things are going though nothing sorted by 120 so all will be different AGAIN later this eve, arrrghhh and to think Winter hasn't even started yet!

ECH1-192.GIF.thumb.png.991d53362d86ff551e18b9132b27c5a5.png

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

216hr chart has the high sinking and the frigid cold slipping away to our east. A familiar tale. 

Devestated, but as you say a familiar tale, all hope has been lost:( In despair!

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5 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I hope no one tries to put a positive spin on ECM at T216. I know its the cold thread but there is no way on earth that will lead to cold in the coming weeks if it verified

Hmmm, tell me why?

Read Chio's post above.

Edited by mulzy
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On the plus side, at least it'll be cold and frosty in Scandinavia

216.thumb.gif.ae0d7b15a0e74c815c62d238d0364c19.gif

No sugarcoating this run unfortunately, it's awful! It can only get better in the morning, probably

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2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I hope no one tries to put a positive spin on ECM at T216. I know its the cold thread but there is no way on earth that will lead to cold in the coming weeks if it verified

At 216 good job it probably won't then.

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I would say game over if it was the 16th of February but it's the 16th of November, so even if the ECM is correct, winter proper hasn't actually started yet😋

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2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I hope no one tries to put a positive spin on ECM at T216. I know its the cold thread but there is no way on earth that will lead to cold in the coming weeks if it verified

Only thing would say is that the NH pattern is in our favour for any cold down the line but I will agree with you if something won't verify in 5 days what's their to 10 ?

It's all bound to change so I would say it can get cold if the models starting picking up...

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5 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I hope no one tries to put a positive spin on ECM at T216. I know its the cold thread but there is no way on earth that will lead to cold in the coming weeks if it verified

Yup ECM and GFS 12z's are very lacklustre this evening but its minor differences. Its due to issues at the T168-T192 range and it can still swing the other way.

I really hope we see this trend reversed though. I don't really care about timings with respect to winter etc. Only the forecast weather upto the mid time range matters to me.

We have a shot at a really decent cold spell, lets hope it swings back the other way.

One thing people haven't mentioned much is the new GFS parallel which has been just as consistent as ECM, but predicting cold!

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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2 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I hope no one tries to put a positive spin on ECM at T216. I know its the cold thread but there is no way on earth that will lead to cold in the coming weeks if it verified

At least it's not your familiar south west to north east full on zonality. We have to get things into perspective here. This is not your normal bog standard late November synoptics at play. It is far removed from what we normally have to suffer at this time of year. We should be very glad about that. 

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

On the plus side, at least it'll be cold and frosty in Scandinavia

216.thumb.gif.ae0d7b15a0e74c815c62d238d0364c19.gif

No sugarcoating this run unfortunately, it's awful! It can only get better in the morning, probably

And God smiled down upon his people and said: behold, don't despair things could be much worse...

And, lo, things did indeed get much worse.👼

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup ECM and GFS 12z's are very lacklustre this evening but its minor differences. Its due to issues at the T168-T192 range and it can still swing the other way.

I really hope we see this trend reversed though. I don't really care about timings with respect to winter etc. Only the about upto the mid time range matters to me.

We have a shot at a really decent cold spell, lets hope it swings back the other way

One thing people haven't mentioned much is the new GFS parallel which has been just as consistent as ECM, but predicting cold!

 

ECM: Consistent, but terrible outputs (still only 16th November, if someone new just came on they'd think it was the end of winter already!)

GFS Parallel: This will be the new GFS OP come next year and it's being just consistent as the ECM but showing the cold weather we want to see. 🌨️

 

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So a couple of model runs are not ideal, but just look at the bigger picture folks, when was the last time we had a NH looking like this as we head into winter? no raging PV over greenland, just because it doesnt give us a 2010 start doesnt make it a bad start. and just remember in the lead up to all cold spells in the UK we always always have big model wobbles at some point. chill out everybody and just remember the weather will do what the weather will do not what we want it to do.

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