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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Just now, snowray said:

Big run coming up from the ECM tonight me thinks..,,:oldrolleyes::cold-emoji:

A monumental run Snowray, most certainly we need a 'superb' run to restore any faith in this potential cold setup.

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Can't believe all this negativity after just one run! Chill!

FV3 looking good at T192, with the high pushing north with a good position, and a strong southerly arm of the jet.  

image.thumb.jpg.b5526b8c67367d6ba00ab103482dfe05.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.c25c11f55be179c5c47edcb78de1a435.jpg

Should be a cracking run.

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6 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

The question is though, are the number of ensembles suppoorting such synoptics as the one shown above increasing? Is the mean line lower than the 06Z?

There is not enough members showing uppers low enough to be guaranteed snow for my liking but its a slow burner, look at the grouping right at the end, there is no sign of lots of members rising so who is saying that the best part of the cold spell is actually within 384 at the moment, time to panic is when the graph at the end of the eps and GEFS show the mean rising significantly and the larger cluster becoming the return to mild one.

 

EDIT : and even then it isnt time to really really panic as there's still 3 months of winter left.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is not enough members showing uppers low enough to be guaranteed snow for my liking but its a slow burner, look at the grouping right at the end, there is no sign of lots of members rising so who is saying that the best part of the cold spell is actually within 384 at the moment, time to panic is when the graph at the end of the eps and GEFS show the mean rising significantly and the larger cluster becoming the return to mild one.

 

EDIT : and even then it isnt time to really really panic as there's still 3 months of winter left.

I worry greatly though, as there is no guarantee that such favourable pressure setups will be present throughout this Winter, we can't afford to lose any chances.

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3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

I worry greatly though, as there is no guarantee that such favourable pressure setups will be present throughout this Winter, we can't afford to lose any chances.

 

But even some of the classic November spells didn't have those brutal uppers - Nov 1993, Nov 1995, the only one that gave me personally a right dumping was 2010, all other Nov events gave me 2 inches max.

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10 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

A monumental run Snowray, most certainly we need a 'superb' run to restore any faith in this potential cold setup.

I'm feeling very comfortable with this afternoons runs so far, GFSp also showing a fair bit of wintry PPN around at the end of next week, lets not get too carried away with charts that are out of the reliable timeframe, the building blocks remain solid.:cold:

gfs-2-180.png

gfs-2-186.png

gfs-2-192.png

gfs-2-180.png

gfs-0-288.png

gfs-1-288.png

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Can't believe all this negativity after just one run! Chill!

FV3 looking good at T192, with the high pushing north with a good position, and a strong southerly arm of the jet.  

image.thumb.jpg.b5526b8c67367d6ba00ab103482dfe05.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.c25c11f55be179c5c47edcb78de1a435.jpg

Should be a cracking run.

Actually, I was pleasantly surprised by the lack of negativity; by-and-large, members' teddies have stayed resolutely in their prams?

But, and there's no getting around the fact, that 12Z was (by even its own standards) an absolute shocker...However, its being totally out-on-a-limb makes even me wonder whether it's finally gone of its rocker?

Anywho, no negativity here: a great ECM and a cracking 18Z will surely set things right?:drunk-emoji:

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The trend on recent suites (especially fi gfs) is to sink a high across the uk at some point before mid atlantic ridging returns ……  i mentioned this sinking high yesterday although it was only hints at that time. now we have the vast majority of gefs members doing it at some point though it looks like a transient feature

is this reversible?  yes

is there any need to panic?  its nov 19th - no

the ecm upcoming - what are we looking for?  some flesh on the bones of where the initial cold pool (how cold can it show 5 days out) will go and how it phases with the atlantic trough.

the back end of the run re trough dropping into scandi from the arctic and whether we can see it arcing our way - yesterdays 12z suite said yes, this mornings was less enthused 

 

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Just now, snowray said:

I'm feeling very comfortable with this afternoons runs so far, GFSp also showing a fair bit of wintry PPN around at the end of next week, lets not get too carried away with charts that are out of the reliable timeframe, the building blocks remain solid.:cold:

gfs-2-180.png

gfs-2-186.png

gfs-2-192.png

gfs-2-180.png

gfs-0-288.png

gfs-1-288.png

In all honesty, the GFS(P) isn't as cold as previous runs regarding the uppers.

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9 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

I worry greatly though, as there is no guarantee that such favourable pressure setups will be present throughout this Winter, we can't afford to lose any chances.

 

It’s November the 16th and you’re  worring greatly ? 

 

Edited by Winter Hill
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On balance it's looking good on the 12z up to T+144 HRS 

Not to bad up to T+168 hrs and a little beyond. 

At T+240 and into FI. there's a breakdown to a more SSW Airflow

At some point this was bound to show on a run or 2 

By any model.

I'd say on a whole this easterly is within range 

It's a case for how long and where next 

Once where in the full flow of the easterly I'll be taking more notice then rather than now

 

Edited by sorepaw1
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FV3 at T300:

image.thumb.jpg.c7c13141ad708df1557faf44abc14eab.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.53d8806e508f1f2a8901423bf5cdc3a2.jpg

Again makes the Greenland block, slightly circuitous route on this run.  Remember, this is not about snow next week it's about getting the synoptic situation in place that can deliver cold and snow in December.  This run delivers that....if it happens.

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2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

In all honesty, the GFS(P) isn't as cold as previous runs regarding the uppers.

I think that you have to look at the bigger picture there AppleUK.😋

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3 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

It’s November the 16th and you worring greatly ? 

 

Yes I am because there is no guarntee such favourable pressure setups will be present in the future. With all the blocking around and weak jet it would be a travesty if the UK didn't pull in cold temperatures and significant and disruptive snowfall. We can't rely on 'next time', we must see FL eventually progress into reality.

Edited by AppleUK 123

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anyone worrying about the gfs post T192 - i wouldn't bother ……………..not for a few more runs at least.

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5 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

In all honesty, the GFS(P) isn't as cold as previous runs regarding the uppers.

I really wouldn't worry about what individual runs show for 850hPa temperatures at this range, it's a bit like looking at the PPN charts and worrying because it doesn't show anything over you at that range - 850hPa temperatures can often be wide of the mark. 

At that range it's all about looking at the broad pattern, it's not worth looking at specific detail until its within 5 days

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Just now, bluearmy said:

anyone worrying about the gfs post T192 - i wouldn't bother ……………..not for a few more runs at least.

Indeed Blue Army very wise words. I'm hopeful that by the end of next week there should be some agreement on the outlook. I just hope it is one which involves snowmen and sledges.

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

anyone worrying about the gfs post T192 - i wouldn't bother ……………..not for a few more runs at least.

Para looks great Blue..

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Para looks great Blue..

it follows the gefs theme …….sinks a ridge extension se and then builds heights out west thereafter ……………...

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4 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Yes I am because there is no guarntee such favourable pressure setups will be present in the future. With all the blocking around and weak jet it would be a travesty if the UK didn't puill in cold temperatures and significant and disruptive snowfall.

Well it’s rare for late November to ever see disruptive snowfalls,if you check the archives.Even till late Dec it’s rare for Southern  most counties to see serious snowfall ,it’s more about hoping to see repeated Northern blocking throughout the winter to increase the chance of significant snowfalls.

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I generally agree with most of the comments re - not needing to panic, however, whist i don't necessarily believe FI op GFS runs for uppers even in the unlikely event that they have nailed the correct pattern, i do believe that when only a few ens members show uppers of -8c and hardly any show -10c, it usually means its because there is little chance of those events happening within the said 16 day time frame.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Just for fun but here's an interesting chart

1772229993_Screenshot2018-11-16at18_06_00.thumb.png.16b1c2f5be1cd5fe28ad05a858c0d997.png

Shows ensemble snow depth predictions for Luton airport, certainly a few in there 

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