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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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GFS kind of backs The met office further outlook into December unfortunately. 

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After an extremely dissapointing GFS OP run I look towards the Para run with apprehension. I hope the GFS OP is a mild outlier of epic proportions. Interesting though that the OP has moved closer to the ECMWF and the illusion which was mentioned in the BBC Weather Video update. Really hope the ECMWF keeps the 'dream' alive otherwise it seems like the beginning of the end. 😞

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40 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes @BLAST FROM THE PAST @shaky

The initial progs from the East 'mean' was about -2 to -4c, this was about 3-4 days ago- then slowly as always happens in Easterlies the heights lower & the 850s are trimmed out-

So the above numbers became -4/-5 then yesterday a few flirtations with -7c.

Today the upper air cold pool has at day 5/ days 6 small pockets of -10c over the near continent with the -8c line making a tiptoe into the SE ( Think ICON gets it into midlands ) -

I think the top out is -9c which is 1c away from Nov 1993.

In terms of PPN - the prospects of snow away from the downs has increased but probably sits 50 / 50 - *but* as that low creeps in the fact its really shallow means evaporational cooling could play a part-

Im 70% confident of seeing snowfall at home next week & 30% confident of a dusting....

S

 

 

You know what would be funny steve is if we get more snowfall out of the coming easterly than the potential north easterly showing up on recent gfss in fi!thats if it even happens!

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3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

After an extremely dissapointing GFS OP run I look towards the Para run with apprehension. I hope the GFS OP is a mild outlier of epic proportions. Interesting though that the OP has moved closer to the ECMWF and the illusion which was mentioned in the BBC Weather Video update. Really hope the ECMWF keeps the 'dream' alive otherwise it seems like the beginning of the end. 😞

Let's hope so, Apple? I won't say anything definite, as I've already made a fool out of myself once, today...🗑️

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Let's hope so, Apple? I won't say anything definite, as I've already made a fool out of myself once, today...🗑️

Fingers crossed Ed, don't worry though were all here to learn off each other.

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10 minutes ago, shaky said:

You know what would be funny steve is if we get more snowfall out of the coming easterly than the potential north easterly showing up on recent gfss in fi!thats if it even happens!

Indeed, it would be nice to bank some early snowfall, and then anything else that comes along is a big bonus!

ECM should run with the UKMO and ICON this evening, hopefully. Be nice to see something close to the UKMO T144 chart coming out from ECM and a reload from the NE.:oldrolleyes:

 

Even GFS is showing the chance of some snow around the middle of next week, so with slightly lower uppers it could be game on.🤩

132-574UK.gif

138-574UK.gif

Edited by snowray

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So, GFS was indeed leading all up the garden path with its nirvana charts- i mentioned that was likely only yesterday.

Now GFS has realized it was wrong its doing what it has a habit of doing, ie, going the other extreme.

I'm not fussed about it, infact,UKMO 144 is more 'agreeable' for me, better profile in the Greenland region than GFS , so while one can NEVER rule out any model, my cent is on GFS being hopelessly wrong..

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image.thumb.png.7b229533ca2e9be831435b3423fd7b6b.png

12Z swingometer

Plenty of Greenland highs in there but notice the increase in the number of anticyclonic runs. These are from the high sinking over the UK.

Whilst there are still some cold runs in there the OP has plenty of support but still some time to go.

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8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Indeed, it would be nice to bank some early snowfall, and then anything else that comes along is a big bonus!

ECM should run with the UKMO and ICON this evening, hopefully. Be nice to see something close to the UKMO T144 chart coming out from ECM and a reload from the NE.:oldrolleyes:

 

Even GFS is showing the chance of some snow around the middle of next week, so with slightly lower uppers it could be game on.🤩

132-574UK.gif

138-574UK.gif

GFS precip charts are useless, will be a lot wetter than that through the UK, some places like here could see a lot of rain

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Well there's one thing for certain: the weather cannae follow the 06Z and the 12Z, at the same time...Something is wrong - somewhere?

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS precip charts are useless, will be a lot wetter than that through the UK, some places like here could see a lot of rain

Hi there, sorry if I wasn't very clear, I meant that the PPN showing up is looking quite wintry in nature, I wasn't referring to the amount of PPN on there.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello another stonking set of ensembles.

Number 6 is a 1979 redux

gensnh-6-1-288_mqh3.png

 

 

The question is though, are the number of ensembles suppoorting such synoptics as the one shown above increasing? Is the mean line lower than the 06Z?

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

12z op well above the mean between the 26th and 1st

graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.thumb.gif.f6e2ee8e111846529e0af9a7b6c21b72.gif

Clear outlier.......BINGO!!!:oldgood:

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Big run coming up from the ECM tonight me thinks..,,:oldrolleyes::cold-emoji:

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