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Paul

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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36 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve is it possible that with the days getting shorted that cold pool could be underestimated and could actually be a little bit colder come the time!!also could be a bit more snowfall than currently forecast🤔

It's all about the wind direction, GFS showing a NEly but ICON and UKMO show more of an Easterly and then SEly so a shorter sea track over the relatively mild North Sea, the colder pool of air having travelled over land and not over the mild sea. Net result is that the lower uppers get across the channel. 

Great run from UKMO there, almost perfect for a bit of the white stuff next week for some of us and a reload.;)

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by snowray
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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

-6c Fred .......

in the meantime, gfs 12z is another model now drifting towards the ec op theme of bringing a brief weak southerly feed in around a week or so 

annoyingly, ec op, whilst having messed about with it’s actual solutions, was onto something long before the other models ..... do we see a swing back over the next few runs 

The Gfs 12z chart does seem to reflect and be in line with the met office outlook. That temp lull then a return to cold.

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4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No we want the energy going up/staying on the western side of Greenland with Atlantic not having a look-in.  There is nothing bad about the ECM...It just isn’t as clean early enough but would get us very cold

 

BFTP

I understand your point. My concern is that if there is to much energy there then it will push the HP back instead of establishing over Greenland. Ideally we would want the energy to forced south of the high sending milder air to enhance the block.

At this moment the regression is looking less smooth and a little more wobblier. The ECMWF could get us to cold but it wouldn't take much for that to go wrong. I'm not getting to excited yet as I have a hunch about this. I hope you are all right though

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

*but* as that low creeps in the fact its really shallow means evaporational cooling could play a part-

If the icon played out like that, no chance. Strong winds would have a negative effect.

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15 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Look where that energy is heading though - It's going NE up the Western side of Greenland or as some used to call it, the "corridor of death" for low pressure systems

That's the issue. It tilts and blocks the HP to less favourable position and sends more of a s/e wind. We need the energy heading south it enhances the block and produces higher heights.

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Broadly not too different from the 6z, UK detail slightly different re: timing of cold etc but the overall pattern remains the same

Block.thumb.png.257531d2796842806b81661d9c225645.png

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GFSOPEU12_210_2.png

12z looks fine so far, high takes a little longer to allign correctly to bring the cold into Europe but its good. Look out for a low pressure system to develop within those cold uppers, we want one to move into Scandi.

EDIT: A few frames later the high starts to sink, maybe not 😞

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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I'm straining to peer into the future to try and discover what conditions we will see at the beginning of winter proper.  These are the current charts for +240h which is all I have access to.......

                                                500s.                                                        850s

ECM          image.thumb.png.7c34b559aaa8e9d32910f8c93245696b.png   image.thumb.png.9afae481b5e89c33b80672e68adc8c23.png

GFS           image.thumb.png.3e9845364a8cfef6758f4ad00545b1e5.png  image.thumb.png.96e3114ea56340d03126dbf4326c8bb2.png

GFS Par     image.thumb.png.433d22b7bdbf9476dca2a1fa47011939.png  image.thumb.png.efe6f604049b27d36614bd229580b1d7.png

GEM          image.thumb.png.95c9f75f201ea4cead96373041a5d192.png  image.thumb.png.86ba490e9eaf4495371ae2913c2bd33d.png

JMA.          image.thumb.gif.362b999c7cf410f1212fd3cb081be663.gifimage.thumb.gif.689704f8883f8b2efc3109db57a7c603.gif

There certain similarities in places but more than enough differences to leave confidence in any one outcome quite low.  The main feature which seems to be common to all is that high pressure remains in place near Greenland and as long as that holds up we have every chance of a cold start to December.

 

Edited by Sky Full
Image correction!

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GFS going a similar way to the beeb last night with low pressure to our west turning things less cold

gfs-0-240.thumb.png.5a8391f6c4c0aa45f341e05daf1a348d.pnggfs-1-240.thumb.png.c084f2c6967207b633c1d0210cedffda.png

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Yeah not a great end to the run from the GFS there from a UK standpoint

Hmm.thumb.png.d456e8c40d73467588f881c7949ee5c8.png

Hemispherically it looks fantastic but high pressure to the South of the UK is quite literally the last place we want to see it - Thankfully, it's miles out.

 

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11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

If the icon played out like that, no chance. Strong winds would have a negative effect.

Look at the UKMO thats what I was referring to which also is around -8c & very shallow

I know how evaporational cooling works - but thanks...

Edited by Steve Murr

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The GFS looks strange,wouldn't surprise me if the ECM flipped the other way tonight those heights drain away to quickly on the GFS in my opinion. If it did end up panning out like the 12z GFS shows it would be desperately unlucky 

Screenshot_20181116-164849.png

Screenshot_20181116-164917.png

Edited by seabreeze86

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Okay.. 

Can't say I was expecting to go from heights to the South and low pressure moving in to a surface Scandi high and major trough disruption in just a few frames, very odd low res this evening

1.thumb.png.656762769c5d530c8b08a21858adea9b.png2.thumb.png.4af5382c77d5e05b0426054d4b5b307f.png

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

This is one hell of a change in 6hrs

12z

1629014009_gfs-0-300(1).thumb.png.b2487a149644500e48729a7ef81106a9.pnggfs-1-300.thumb.png.e4c4e1584a7e1bbcad445372efbff464.png

06z

gfs-0-312.thumb.png.f3311143ab1ae12127e3aed20ee36f85.pnggfs-1-312.thumb.png.786676025fed02e04a7cb2687b57c862.png

Thankfully though the key changes are far away. The reason why the 12z is so different is because the high to our North links with the high over Spain between T192 and T216.

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This is one hell of a change in 6hrs

12z

1629014009_gfs-0-300(1).thumb.png.b2487a149644500e48729a7ef81106a9.pnggfs-1-300.thumb.png.e4c4e1584a7e1bbcad445372efbff464.png

06z

gfs-0-312.thumb.png.f3311143ab1ae12127e3aed20ee36f85.pnggfs-1-312.thumb.png.786676025fed02e04a7cb2687b57c862.png

And thats why its called FI for a reason, not unusual too see such large variations really.

The UKMO looks okay with the initial easterly in fairness, one of those where surprises could occur with snow but definately a potential for more in the way of frost if skies are clear.

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Ok the Gfs 12z might have been a little disappointing at the end there however this will change. It is too far to make a call that this will be the set up in the future. Plenty more exciting runs will appear no doubt soon. The waiting game continues.....

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

I hold you and Steve Murr personally responsible for this run 🙂

Yeah sorry guys..

ECM doesn't seem to over-amplify as much as it used too..

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Me earlier this afternoon: "The GFS doesn't seem to default to zonal in low res anymore"

GFS: "Hold my beer"

Beer.thumb.png.5d355057a1ee1fc54cae14a11efa684c.png

Hopefully the Op is at odds with the ENS, and the ECM pulls out a blinder. Still a shame Ian F no longer posts in here, was nice getting some input from the METO keeping more of a reality check on FI stuff. 

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1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’m really liking the UKMO for imby. T144 -8c uppers covering SE and an LP bringing what I feel would be lots of snowfall.  Snow will be laying in lowland southern England last week of Nov......jubbly

BFTP

Let's hope so, Fred. #winterofdiscontent Image result for green goddess fire engine winter of discontent

I started this post a wee while back Fred, so any apparent sarcasm is simply an unexpected consequence of an expected 'stonker' suddenly going pear-shaped!:fool:

Netweather GFS Image

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6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Me earlier this afternoon: "The GFS doesn't seem to default to zonal in low res anymore"

GFS: "Hold my beer"

 

Hardly zonal though is it?  The way I look at it, in Winter anyway is:

Zonal: 100% chance mild and/or wet.

Meridional: 50% chance mild, 50% chance cold.

No sign in any of the model output that we're in the zonal camp.

Edited by Mike Poole

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Hopefully the Op is at odds with the ENS, and the ECM pulls out a blinder. Still a shame Ian F no longer posts in here, was nice getting some input from the METO keeping more of a reality check on FI stuff. 

Wouldnt be the metoffice any longer though .......

 

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