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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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The ECM weeklies which updated at the beginning of the week show the cold air hanging around certainly for a couple of weeks

Q47vMoY.pngWN2BB9C.png

Signals naturally weeker by week 4 but maybe a bit closer to average

Monthly-Anomalies-T2m-20181112-w4.png

Precipitation looks to be below average for 2 and 3 by week 4 it may become a bit wetter in the far west IF lower pressure gets closer by still drier than average for the majority

DmL8F8Q.pngbWCKjmi.pngMonthly-Anomalies-Rain-20181112-w4.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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29 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

If we are going to be looking within the next 5 days on the GFS model, it's also a good idea to look back at what the GFS was modelling for today back on Sunday.

Sunday 6z and Today 6z: I must say the GFS has done exceptionally well within the 120hr timescale for the last few days. 

 1852344393_Sunday6z.thumb.png.7b1176e04a27f299d109b947ee7dd2db.png357001675_Friday6z.thumb.png.1a822f9e63d7621f6c96edd12d0550cb.png

Indeed..

Gfs really pulling itself together..within the +144 timescale its been well on the money.

And if its a cold outlook your wanting...then the GFS is your bonus ball.

Over 2 the 12z suites...2-look for compare!.

Hopefully when can gain some cross agree today with the overall pattern.

I know where my money's going!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM weeklies which updated at the beginning of the week show the cold air hanging around certainly for a couple of weeks

 

Already out of date gav although week 3 didn’t change much at all 

in addition, not sure up to T120 is the issue thus far ......

Edited by bluearmy

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ICON  an upgrade on its earlier run this afternoon

Almost there...

iconnh-0-174.png?16-12

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Here's the two main things I'll be looking for on the 12s.  First I would like to see the back of this idea of high heights leaking to our SE even as the Greenland ridge is being built, particularly for ECM to drop this idea.  Secondly, I want to see the idea in the post T240 timeframe of cross polar ridging and the shunting of the trop vortex to the eastern (from UK's point of view) NH providing that prolonged source of cold air to tap into as we have seen on a number of runs now, most recently the FV3 6z.  If these can be firmed up in our favour, then we could be looking at one of those rare occasions where the models can give some genuine guidance at the day 10 or longer range - what I'm saying is that there is now the possibility of the models converging on a prolonged cold spell, not saying it will happen, too much uncertainty, but it would be nice - and timely - for a stronger indication on the 12s today.  Let's see what happens.

ICON already looks better to me compared to the 0z, here T168 compared with 0z at same time, 12z first:

image.thumb.jpg.711aa4ca25a4e13529edc07d93fa71f4.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.fb53051fca94bf650c414690eb206cf6.jpg

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Just now, CreweCold said:

ICON  an upgrade on its earlier run this afternoon

Almost there...

iconnh-0-174.png?16-12

Yes. Are we slowly getting there? Hopefully another decent GFS about to roll and a stonking ECM later, can set us up nicely for the weekend runs!

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12z ICON going more SE'ly at t168 similar to what ECM had on the 00z

ICON                                                                 ECM

icon-0-168.thumb.png.6e964c6b8a3ee62532658ab7f0f1ab2c.pngECM1-168.thumb.gif.f62fbc573e6765bb48f17ceb994108d9.gif

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3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Do you know I was on my way to breakfast thinking exactly that-

Also as I mentioned to @Seasonality the other day Whenevers there uncertaintly around blocking towards greenland more often than not the models back away, however when the GFS in particular strings run after run together then upgrades are inevitable  - & when was the last time we strung such a lengthy period of blocking runs together - 2010

Now the trend in the last 24 hours is to ease the blocking on day 6-8 over greenland as it holds in situ over iceland -

however as we head day 9 out to ~13 the renewed pulse of blocking is now securing the greenland block but also another cross polar high is beginning to develop thus supoorting the longivity even more-

As of today ive counted about 6 or so runs where we are blocked & bitter cold all the way through to the end of the run...

Best

S

This ties in with the Meto update too, possibly a bit of milder weather after initial cold next week but shortlived and then probably back to cold again. And by then we'll be closer to December and have more cold pool to tap into too!!😀😀

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Icon and ecm are now aligned .... the ec op cluster was not quite the largest earlier so a fair chance the 12z ecm may be a little different and the two models are then un aligned ! 

Edited by bluearmy
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5 hours ago, shaky said:

Assume nothing has changed on the 06z then!!pretty foggy here this morning!maybe a sign of colder weather on the horizon🤔

only 3 exclamation marks on the 'Shakyometer'?.......definitely more runs needed! 😉

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UKMO at T144, I like this chart because it clearly builds heights towards Greenland, but preserves low heights in the vicinity of the Southern UK:

image.thumb.jpg.5580d2fd6353e1ab02ba566ab62c35a2.jpg

Obviously we don't get to see any further ahead on this one, but bodes well.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Minimal adjustments via 12z gfs..but important ones..

Although hp cell placement is a tad unfavourable...the pressure on the vortex is ramped up a little...

And the cross polar flow looking decent for a possible mid range split...

Interesting evolvement here !

 

 

Edit;

I continue to bang the drum on the az /mid atlantic-regional warmth...thats feeding the established scandi cell..a saving grace on the euro window ??!!

gfsnh-0-108.png

gfs-0-138.png

Edited by tight isobar
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29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON now progging -8c getting into SE with some PPN attached

0EA0FA6F-71A1-4621-BDC5-9BE3AA85A791.thumb.png.16898259612036ea94abc0b83725646a.png

Steve is it possible that with the days getting shorted that cold pool could be underestimated and could actually be a little bit colder come the time!!also could be a bit more snowfall than currently forecast🤔

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GFS T138, now this really is an embryonic monster!  Heights building SE looks cut off, just waiting to burst north, I think this is going to be a stonker!  (My IPad changes that to stinker first time, hope that doesn't put the mockers on it!)

image.thumb.jpg.680fca90328c33d880e65e65ce486d20.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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I’m really liking the UKMO for imby. T144 -8c uppers covering SE and an LP bringing what I feel would be lots of snowfall.  Snow will be laying in lowland southern England last week of Nov......jubbly

It seems the ICON has the same -8c over the SE too.  

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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There obviously will be some blocking, but I have a feeling that  we may start to see little by little downgrades and the GFS falling in line with ECMWF. there appears to be too much energy in Canada for the block to take a decent hold in the early stages which I think may be a theme going forward,

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That UKMO 144 chart would have cold air (true arctic outbreak, not Euro cold pool) across us within the 10 day time frame,

Hope ECM follows suit 

Edited by Mucka
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1 minute ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

There obviously will be some blocking, but I have a feeling that  we may start to see little by little downgrades and the GFS falling in line with ECMWF. there appears to be too much energy in Canada for the block to take a decent hold in the early stages which I think may be a theme going forward,

Look where that energy is heading though - It's going NE up the Western side of Greenland or as some used to call it, the "corridor of death" for low pressure systems

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5 minutes ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

There obviously will be some blocking, but I have a feeling that  we may start to see little by little downgrades and the GFS falling in line with ECMWF. there appears to be too much energy in Canada for the block to take a decent hold in the early stages which I think may be a theme going forward,

No we want the energy going up/staying on the western side of Greenland with Atlantic not having a look-in.  There is nothing bad about the ECM...It just isn’t as clean early enough but would get us very cold

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’m really liking the UKMO for imby. T144 -8c uppers covering SE and an LP bringing what I feel would be lots of snowfall.  Snow will be laying in lowland southern England last week of Nov......jubbly

It seems the ICON has the same -8c over the SE too.  

BFTP

-6c Fred .......

in the meantime, gfs 12z is another model now drifting towards the ec op theme of bringing a brief weak southerly feed in around a week or so 

annoyingly, ec op, whilst having messed about with it’s actual solutions, was onto something long before the other models ..... do we see a swing back over the next few runs 

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