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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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57 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh my! How’s that for a Stonking set of ENS

D1812B3F-9EEF-4AEE-99B7-BEB2F88E5699.thumb.gif.f67353c68f19d4f9b64268b0c3a9aa31.gif

Some pretty cold runs in there! On balance there are a few rather mild ones as well, somewhat of a split from around the 27th, but majority look cold to me...?

Looks to me like the closest set of runs are actually below the mean in FI too. Does look as though D7-10 the high will be stuck a bit but hopefully another shot will see it to Greenland after that.

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Quiet in 'ere, innit!

As there's such a wonderfully cold outlook on offer, I'm guessing I'm not alone in feeling spoiled for no choice?:cold:

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Quiet in 'ere, innit!

As there's such a wonderfully cold outlook on offer, I'm guessing I'm not alone in feeling spoiled for no choice?:cold:

I'm quite thankful for the quiet, makes it much easier to keep up whilst at work! It'll pick up later when everyone returns home to these Narnia winter charts I'm sure!

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Whilst it’s quiet: can’t help but feel deflated reading the meto outlook 1-15 dec. snow isn’t mentioned at all and it sounds very average. Hopefully this will change soon but perhaps the models we don’t see are currently showing a collapse of the block into early December ...

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17 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I'm quite thankful for the quiet, makes it much easier to keep up whilst at work! It'll pick up later when everyone returns home to these Narnia winter charts I'm sure!

Morning Dan.

I think this weekend will be busy on here

Especially evenings.

With this morning's 06z even Greece could be cold enough  for a flurry or two At T+204.

I'd much rather be in my location though 

I don't know if this is relevant for this thread but if we have a sustainable easterly and a Scandinavian high cross Greenland high would this have an impact on cooling the North Sea 

 

Edited by sorepaw1
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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Whilst it’s quiet: can’t help but feel deflated reading the meto outlook 1-15 dec. snow isn’t mentioned at all and it sounds very average. Hopefully this will change soon but perhaps the models we don’t see are currently showing a collapse of the block into early December ...

To be fair, they're most likely going on the latest EC46 dayer which does suggest low pressure close by around the 30 day period - Not a strong signal albeit but they've got to base the forecast on something and given that's what the models currently suggest, it's as good a guess as any. 

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14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Whilst it’s quiet: can’t help but feel deflated reading the meto outlook 1-15 dec. snow isn’t mentioned at all and it sounds very average. Hopefully this will change soon but perhaps the models we don’t see are currently showing a collapse of the block into early December ...

I'm not so sure about that prognosis, Tim...a short-live milder interlude might also be suggestive of a disrupting front (or fronts) coming in from the west, and then slipping away southwards and leaving the cold block largely intact...?

PS: I had to put my straw down, in order to type this reply!🥤

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS 6z are tremendous!!

And to add to that METO update now suggesting cold dominating out to mid Dec with only a small chance of an Atlantic attack which will likely be short lived even if it does happen.

Sounds very much like this huge blocking high is going to be the dominant player for quite a while!!

I think cold but dry is a safe bet, even with average 850’s under high pressure with continental influence it will feel bitter! What people want is the white fluff, as of yet I’m not convinced that we will get what we want at this bite!

 

Just my personal opinion but I think the model handling of blocking outside of reliable timeframe is questionable to say the least, they often seem over keen on cutting off the high when we normally end up with a saggier high as it gets towards a reliable timeframe, just as GFS low res often resorts to blowing up lows. Not convinced by either... On the fence, already got splinters in my bum! 

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Just now, Weathizard said:

I think cold but dry is a safe bet, even with average 850’s under high pressure with continental influence it will feel bitter! What people want is the white fluff, as of yet I’m not convinced that we will get what we want at this bite!

 

Just my personal opinion but I think the model handling of blocking outside of reliable timeframe is questionable to say the least, they often seem over keen on cutting off the high when we normally end up with a saggier high as it gets towards a reliable timeframe, just as GFS low res often resorts to blowing up lows. Not convinced by either... On the fence, already got splinters in my bum! 

Agreed..

Exeter evidently happy to go with the block dominating for the forseeable- plenty of cold dry weather to come , as iv'e said, whats there not to like? 

Cold/foggy/frosty weather in December sounds sooooooo much better than Atlantic wind and rain!!

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Don’t no what all the moaning is about 🤨. The word blocked is how the weather is going to be for the foreseeable. There should be no complaints. Something very tasty is around the corner 🍔. The GEFS ensembles are brilliant by the way . And the op was an outlier between the 24th and 27th . 10397613-08D0-4DB5-AC50-B97C8B3CB0DD.thumb.png.2165c0b5e3b21cbc764cc7dafa6eeb4e.png

And the new GFS para was an amazing run . Time will tell if it’s the new top dog model . 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed..

Exeter evidently happy to go with the block dominating for the forseeable- plenty of cold dry weather to come , as iv'e said, whats there not to like? 

Cold/foggy/frosty weather in December sounds sooooooo much better than Atlantic wind and rain!!

I decided to read Exeter’s updates and I have to say - I wouldn’t have written them too differently based on the output we are seeing coupled with the ec46 from last night 

with the eps clusters a bit inconsistent post day 8, they don’t have enough to go on re over committing to anything 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

I decided to read Exeter’s updates and I have to say - I wouldn’t have written them too differently based on the output we are seeing coupled with the ec46 from last night 

with the eps clusters a bit inconsistent post day 8, they don’t have enough to go on re over committing to anything 

Yes, while the GFS seems hell bent on providing us with what most want to see i'm far from convinced and would suggest the block will sink somewhat but stay at a high enough latitude to deflect the Atlantic lows to our south and into Southern Europe, i can see this block meandering from the Scandy/iceland/northern UK and possibly back to where it started (scandy) if i were to take a stab..

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The MO update does mention snow. Albeit mostly for higher ground.

Continue to be bemused by people’s disappointment at the lack of snow prospects in the short term, given that there has never been any prospect of significant cold and snow next week. I haven’t seen a single model run or chart that has ever shown this. The general pattern is what is of interest, with it potentially being promising for significant cold and snow further into winter.

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11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The MO update does mention snow. Albeit mostly for higher ground.

Continue to be bemused by people’s disappointment at the lack of snow prospects in the short term, given that there has never been any prospect of significant cold and snow next week. I haven’t seen a single model run or chart that has ever shown this. The general pattern is what is of interest, with it potentially being promising for significant cold and snow further into winter.

As I said, my disappointment is getting this setup in Nov, and the cold is being shown in deep FI, 28th, no guarantee of it coming off, setup post 384 is the best, snowy system to SW, but 384, pfft    

gfs-0-384.png?6

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12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

The MO update does mention snow. Albeit mostly for higher ground.

Continue to be bemused by people’s disappointment at the lack of snow prospects in the short term, given that there has never been any prospect of significant cold and snow next week. I haven’t seen a single model run or chart that has ever shown this. The general pattern is what is of interest, with it potentially being promising for significant cold and snow further into winter.

I agree, Matt: so long as that block over Europe is maintained, the colder the continent will become...though we may not get the Beast we all want to see, should we do, it will likely be a stonker?:cold:

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19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

As I said, my disappointment is getting this setup in Nov, and the cold is being shown in deep FI, 28th, no guarantee of it coming off, setup post 384 is the best, snowy system to SW, but 384, pfft    

gfs-0-384.png?6

It is difficult to get deep cold this early in the season though. You need the flow to come from the north east rather than from the east, as per November 2010 (the only time I can remember seeing deep cold so early). The patterns being shown by some model output can deliver a north east flow further down the line, i.e. high pressure migrating from Scandinavia towards Greenland. Hence the building blocks we have in place and being shown are promising.

Cooling down of the continent would also mean that any further easterlies would bring more significant cold to our shores.

Edited by MattStoke
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Also as I mentioned to @Seasonality the other day Whenevers there uncertaintly around blocking towards greenland more often than not the models back away, however when the GFS in particular strings run after run together then upgrades are inevitable  - & when was the last time we strung such a lengthy period of blocking runs together - 2010

The comparisons with 2010 are inevitable but there are differences which will put some theories to the test if this ends up being a prolonged cold spell like 2010 or 2009 with persistent -NAO, or just a short-lived anticyclonic wave break. A key difference are the SSTs and the Atlantic tripole -

2009 -

anomnight.11.16.2009.gif

2010 -

anomnight.11.15.2010.gif

The Atlantic profile was fairly similar at this time of the year (unlike ENSO) and this has been the subject of a number of studies, eg - SSTs were linked to NAO in both winters in this paper -

Re‐emerging ocean temperature anomalies in late‐2010 associated with a repeat negative NAO (Taws et al 2011) - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2011GL048978

Whilst in the next, again SSTs were seen as important to 2010 -

The Influence of Surface Forcings on Prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation Regime of Winter 2010/11 (Maidens et al 2013) - https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00033.1

Finally, a third paper which suggests that SST response was not as important for 2009 which may have been more down to natural variation, but once again was conducive for -NAO in 2010 - 

North Atlantic SST Anomalies and the Cold North European Weather Events of Winter 2009/10 and December 2010 (Buchan et al 2013) - https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00104.1

This doesn't necessarily mean that the Atlantic temperature profile is required for similar conditions, but it doesn't appear as favourable this year - completely different to 2009 and 2010 -

anomnight.11.15.2018.gif

 

 

 

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ECM ensembles for temperature this morning (note - will be out of date tonight!)

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

My reading

- Next week: cold but probably not quite cold enough for widespread snow next week, close call though 

- The week after: A bit of a split but heavier clustering on the cold side, and, with many members maxing at 3C even in London, this time snowy cold is a greater possibility.

 

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This must be at least the millionth time myself or others in the team have requested this, so it would be great if those who keep ignoring these requests could take it on board.

Can we keep it to the models in here please, discussion solely about meto updates and the like with zero context around the models is not for this thread. There is a met office thread in the general weather area for that.

 

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