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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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8 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Is this even possible!!😁

gfsnh-0-312.png

Yes anything is possible in lo-resolution particularly with the GFS...outlandish to say the least.

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1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

So where are we after the morning runs. Looking purely at the ops it does seem that all roads lead to some kind of cold outlook. How cold and how snow remains to be seen. If we can get cross polar ridging as per the latter stages of the 06z then possibly very snowy but there's a long way to go before we get to that possible scenario. However if we can get those outlandish FI charts down towards the 144/168 Mark then that would raise an eyebrow or two.

But we really shouldn’t be using the ops at that range - I agree that nearly alll routes lead to a ‘cold outcome’ but some of those outcomes are not snowy and most on this thread are looking for that 

add in the fact that this is the uk on the western edge of a conintent and the eastern edge of an ocean and the margins for error reduce dramatically......

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What's catching my attention is the lack of zonality in the extended low res GFS. It used to be that no matter how blocked the high res was, as soon as low res hit it'd ramp up the Atlantic and blow the blocking away like it was a cobweb in the breeze. It could be that the GFS has been updated and no longer has that bias though. @Steve Murr will probably know more since he knows the models like the back of his own hand

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Yep nice sensible post there Sunnijim...think of recent winters as you mentioned that just shoot past week after week and before you know it we're heading into late January still hoping. Synoptics, long range forecasts and low solar minima are all adding to far better prospects this time round...

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh my! How’s that for a Stonking set of ENS

D1812B3F-9EEF-4AEE-99B7-BEB2F88E5699.thumb.gif.f67353c68f19d4f9b64268b0c3a9aa31.gif

Some pretty cold runs in there! On balance there are a few rather mild ones as well, somewhat of a split from around the 27th, but majority look cold to me...?

Good to see you posting Karlos, I've missed seeing your input on here, always balanced!

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh my! How’s that for a Stonking set of ENS

D1812B3F-9EEF-4AEE-99B7-BEB2F88E5699.thumb.gif.f67353c68f19d4f9b64268b0c3a9aa31.gif

Some pretty cold runs in there! On balance there are a few rather mild ones as well, somewhat of a split from around the 27th, but majority look cold to me...?

Not as good as yesterdays 12z graph, theres more in the mild cluster at the end than there were yesterday.

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh my! How’s that for a Stonking set of ENS

D1812B3F-9EEF-4AEE-99B7-BEB2F88E5699.thumb.gif.f67353c68f19d4f9b64268b0c3a9aa31.gif

Some pretty cold runs in there! On balance there are a few rather mild ones as well, somewhat of a split from around the 27th, but majority look cold to me...?

Yes good to see you posting karlos 🙂

we would like to see the milder members drop out longer term but as it stands,there is little to be unhappy about in the hunt for cold.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not as good as yesterdays 12z graph, theres more in the mild cluster at the end than there were yesterday.

Thats a ruddy good set of ens..

Op looks to be one of,if not the mildest member longer term and even thats chilly.

Edited by northwestsnow
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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But we really shouldn’t be using the ops at that range - I agree that nearly alll routes lead to a ‘cold outcome’ but some of those outcomes are not snowy and most on this thread are looking for that 

add in the fact that this is the uk on the western edge of a conintent and the eastern edge of an ocean and the margins for error reduce dramatically......

So basically the UK is in the same position geographically as it always has been since the last ice age, which is nice to know, that snow is never guaranteed and some people may be disappointed.

Thanks for playing stating the obvious you have scored 10/10 and will get moved onto the next round.

Considering I've seen people moan about the lack of snow 48 hours out on what looks like a "dry Easterly" I think looking for snow at this range is a little pointless maybe it's just me.

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But we really shouldn’t be using the ops at that range - I agree that nearly alll routes lead to a ‘cold outcome’ but some of those outcomes are not snowy and most on this thread are looking for that 

add in the fact that this is the uk on the western edge of a conintent and the eastern edge of an ocean and the margins for error reduce dramatically......

Quite so Blue that's why I specifically stated ,'looking at the ops.' and you agree with my basic premise. I also stated how cold and how snowy remains to be seen.

 

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4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

What's catching my attention is the lack of zonality in the extended low res GFS. It used to be that no matter how blocked the high res was, as soon as low res hit it'd ramp up the Atlantic and blow the blocking away like it was a cobweb in the breeze. It could be that the GFS has been updated and no longer has that bias though

I often wonder whether the oft-referred-to bias is inherent in the weather itself, rather than in the models? It's not unheard of for northerly block to collapse spontaneously, and in defiance of the models, is it?🤔

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image.thumb.png.ae57bdb65fb3f6c085c7b14e0eafbc1a.png

Swingometer update for the 06z

A bit of a messier synoptic picture with some speeding up the outbreak of cold air towards our region but have a sinking high to our west.

Nevertheless plenty of cold runs in there and in terms of cold its an improvement for the UK even if synoptics are a bit messier 🙂  

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FV3 at T204, builds the Greenland high but without the drift of heights to our SEimage.thumb.jpg.510a5ec673d44408e947d937dd52918d.jpg

Southern arm strong on this run

image.thumb.jpg.ec0100b6f6fd12d56692479f213aaba7.jpg

Liking this one so far

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18 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

image.thumb.png.ae57bdb65fb3f6c085c7b14e0eafbc1a.png

Swingometer update for the 06z

A bit of a messier synoptic picture with some speeding up the outbreak of cold air towards our region but have a sinking high to our west.

Nevertheless plenty of cold runs in there and in terms of cold its an improvement for the UK even if synoptics are a bit messier 🙂  

Hi mate - what is the X axis numbered 0 to 18?

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2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Hi mate - what is the X axis numbered 0 to 18?

They are the output runs of the GFS for each day which are the 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z 🙂 

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I think there may be a few surprises come next week with regard to the white stuff especially if anything falls at night

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GFSPARAEU06_288_2.png

GFS parallel continues to lead the way. Lets hope its onto something 🙂 as I can imagine this new model iteration generally performs better?

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

FV3 run verging on epic territory at T276:

image.thumb.jpg.ef026fd7b7c60316085ffc7e0b2d93d9.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.2b21e24c56f57737801890460f15b9c6.jpg

A recurring theme now on the better runs is to push the entire trop vortex to the eastern half of the NH, creating the ultimate cold pool to tap in to.

This is what I'm expecting around this time frame...

Edited by inghams85
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40 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a ruddy good set of ens..

Op looks to one of,if not the mildest member longer term and even thats chilly.

It is but the mean was lower and the cold cluster colder and a more defined cluster yesterday.

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wow just seen the latter stages of gfs,The whole of Europe would be on the cusp of a severe winter if it ever came into fruition.The most extreme charts i’ve ever seen the 00 and 06 latter stages.

A slight concern i would think to meteorologists in Europe?

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On the other hand the GEFS were still good yesterday but look even better in deep in FI today - Graph wise that is, havent been through individual members.

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A continuation of improvement via the ens...not perfect...'however improving suite 2 suite now.

12z today will be massive !!!

MT8_London_ens (1).png

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