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Paul

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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ECM and UKMO extended are reasonably close this morning with both going for more of a southeasterly

 ecm2.2018112300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ced00c550aadbc05264fdce212647f56.pngukm2.2018112300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.cb5c2b7ee28c18e40fdef0b9bf3642f6.png

GFS and GEM are also reasonably close both go for an easterly

gfs2.2018112300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6c754b37da01283379e5dfbfeb7048e7.pngcmc2.2018112300_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.54311243927323ad979b3b8b222b4bce.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun

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20 minutes ago, booferking said:

Some good news ICON back on board again.😃

Screenshot_20181116-091542_Chrome.jpg

Tough to be sure that day 5 does/doesn’t lead to a very good day 7 .......

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Tough to be sure that day 5 does/doesn’t lead to a very good day 7 .......

High cut of round the back also that trough is further south less chance of blown up over uk and sinking the high.

iconnh-0-120.png

iconnh-0-126.png

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

High cut of round the back also that trough is further south less chance of blown up over uk and sinking the high.

iconnh-0-120.png

iconnh-0-126.png

You still want the trough more to the east to avoid an ECM style scenario. But a step in the right direction for cold

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Assume nothing has changed on the 06z then!!pretty foggy here this morning!maybe a sign of colder weather on the horizon🤔

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Is it me or have we lost the easterly at T+168 hrs and a little beyond on the 06z

And been replaced with a more SSE airflow.

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Here we go, ramp-up European snowcover, and watch the 850s plummet!

Netweather GFS Image

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The 6z does look a lot more like the ECM this morning - Not terrible by a Northern Hemispheric point of view but not great from a UK cold point of view, either

1079025661_6z11.thumb.png.c8494b3b5ece6c49150058d9d1df09cc.png

It looks like a slow burner to me, heights should re-build Northwards around Greenland and with cold air digging into Europe we'll be better placed to tap into some cold air. I don't think it's going to be quite as straight forward as some GFS runs have shown. 

Certainly some support within the EPS for this solution, roughly 50/50 as others have said.

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The 6z is looking a lot more saggy on the bottom half of the high, looks much more like the ECM unfortunately.

I think the middle ground is looking quite likely here, my worry is if we miss this opportunity how long till the next chance.

 

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Eyes are drawn to Greenland around T-300. This is now the timescale for me for real cold and Greenland Heights. Ties in with the anomalies shown two days ago

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

The 6z is looking a lot more saggy on the bottom half of the high, looks much more like the ECM unfortunately.

I think the middle ground is looking quite likely here, my worry is if we miss this opportunity how long till the next chance.

 

Not long - Residual heights being left over the Arctic will still allow the cold air to reach our shores

RIS.thumb.png.36c0d710284ed172cdfb5f8fc71165b6.png

Important to note that there is 0 suggestion within the EPS/GEFS/Det runs that the Atlantic is going to fire up and bulldone its way through, all routes lead to cold - It's just whether it's a fast route straight down the M5 or a slower route taking the country roads.

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GFS 6z at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.22597df450b76c26b6372578e047b6ed.jpg

ridging straight into the pole, some work to do yet to our SE, if we're picky...we shouldn't be

Edited by Mike Poole

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Only my  opinion but 6z looks wonderful-PV displaced - plenty of cold dry weather to usher in late Nov early Dec..

Edited by northwestsnow

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Remarkable consistency from the GFS here

00z 

2.thumb.png.6e54efbaf92c593e39967fab22c17dac.png

06z

1.thumb.png.1356b12b2182506f25dc1a07367df88b.png

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gfs-0-240.png?6

There are multiple paths and I think they all lead to cold, when you have high pressure centered over the sea between Iceland and Norway the outcome is generally cold 9/10 times.

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5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-240.png?6

There are multiple paths and I think they all lead to cold, when you have high pressure centered over the sea between Iceland and Norway the outcome is generally cold 9/10 times.

Hello Mate good to see you back for another winter..

I agree with your post BTW..

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11 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Remarkable consistency from the GFS here

00z 

2.thumb.png.6e54efbaf92c593e39967fab22c17dac.png

06z

1.thumb.png.1356b12b2182506f25dc1a07367df88b.png

Even the late-run potential freezing-fog fest has survived four successive runs?

Netweather GFS Image

And doesn't the T+384 simply scream POTENTIAL!?

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone

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Another stonking run from the GFS06! I think in a weeks time we'll have a compromise of ECM and GFS. Either way we're not seeing raging zonality which considering we're normally seeing a strong PV sitting to our north at this time of year is certainly noteworthy.

 

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The ECM clusters are out. 

Day 10 we've got a fairly even split, the Control run is in the biggest cluster 1 at 51% showing fairly pronounced ridging into Greenland/Low Pressure tracking South, winds look likely to be North-Easterly to me so probably in line roughly with the latest GFS run

The second 49% cluster is the Ops run, high pressure more centered around Iceland and a little further North allowing low pressure to get closer to the UK, less cold and perhaps a little more unsettled in the South/West. Basically 50/50 for either scenario so no clear signal for day 10.

1002763359_Day10.thumb.png.68201179563df874ed0b473c63ce6bc0.png

Day 15 shows the biggest cluster offering height rises towards Scandi again but not particularly bitter, low pressure looks a little close by, second cluster looks better with heights still towards Greenland, third cluster more of an East based -NAO

1768407504_Day15.thumb.png.6c1aad70a358cacffd900667456ad127.png

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So where are we after the morning runs. Looking purely at the ops it does seem that all roads lead to some kind of cold outlook. How cold and how snowy remains to be seen. If we can get cross polar ridging as per the latter stages of the 06z then possibly very snowy but there's a long way to go before we get to that possible scenario. However if we can get those outlandish FI charts down towards the 144/168 Mark then that would raise an eyebrow or two.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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