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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look, thats the trough she's on about.

ECH1-192_hrz9.GIF

 

almost exactly as she had it - but you wouldnt rule out cold returning shortly after that would you?

 

Well not to everyone apparently! Ha I doubt that chart will be the same at 00z anyway... 

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Did, ive just watched it - Sarah Keith-Lucas

i saw the video forecast on Met Office website, he was downplaying next week as well.. certainly getting colder, but he said 'if you're looking for snow, you're out of luck.. it'll be rain showers'

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4 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

i saw the video forecast on Met Office website, he was downplaying next week as well.. certainly getting colder, but he said 'if you're looking for snow, you're out of luck.. it'll be rain showers'

I expect their supervisors told them to downplay it a bit to avoid the inevitable mass bread and milk buying that would ensue. Especially looking at the 18z! Yes the GFS outcomes may be a little extreme but it's safe to say the likelihood of prolonged cold (dare i say.. close to Nov 2010) is certainly on the table. 

Edited by CanadaAl
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ICON not great again it has to be said

iconnh-0-180.png?16-00

Very good UKMO though...

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Keeps that continental disturbance and the Atlantic trough nicely separated. 

 

Edited by CreweCold
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GFS is excellent at 180 hrs

gfsnh-0-180.png?0

Best output of the day so far up to this point at 180 hrs.

By 192 hrs we're opening up a split vortex...

gfsnh-0-192.png?0

This run could be epic...

Edited by CreweCold
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Just now, Mucka said:

I think this is the first time we have seen an Arctic high thrown in the mix. That would surely spell game over any Atlantic driven weather for the foreseeable.

gfsnh-0-198.png

Not only that, it would surely send us into narnia!

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Seems the 0z GFS wants to up the ante in FI

gfsnh-0-264.png?0

A swathe of deep cold uppers hangs above us

gfsnh-1-276.png?0

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Probably one of the craziest charts I have ever seen

gfsnh-0-300.png

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Apparently one of our viewers phoned in and said they had been told winter Narnia was coming...

Don't worry, Winter Narnia isn't coming.

gfsnh-0-276.png

Probably one of the best winter charts you'll see

gfsnh-0-300.png?0

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Probably one of the best winter charts you'll see

gfsnh-0-300.png?0

Probably the best chart we will see all Winter. There will be some excited boys and girls this morning, until ECM arrives anyway 😛

gfsnh-0-348.png

 

Edit

Yeah Crewe and we have seen a few FI's in our time!

Edited by Mucka
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That little bump of HP in the mid Atlantic shown on the GEFS mean chart is crucial for the whole evolution. It prevents the continental instability which crosses the UK from being absorbed into the Atlantic trough (like on the ICON). It also acts in another way as support for the HP and stops it from sinking SE.

gensnh-21-1-132.png

And so by 156 the mean looks like this

gensnh-21-1-156.png

A much more stable HP and renewed WAA up the western limb of the HP.

Edited by CreweCold
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Amazing GFS 0z run charts this morning with a cold theme maintained throughout and becoming very cold in the unreliable part.

UKMO also solid as a rock on the 0z run showing retrogression towards Greenland helped by the WAA towards South West of Greenland. 😊

E4B283FD-E0DE-4F3E-AB93-FC13A60770B9.png

63F4CC78-DB89-4EFD-B9A5-0C8304D60DE5.gif

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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2 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

i saw the video forecast on Met Office website, he was downplaying next week as well.. certainly getting colder, but he said 'if you're looking for snow, you're out of luck.. it'll be rain showers'

That’s like telling the poor kid there’s no Santa 🎅 

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Yes nice to see a few runs getting the cold in within day 10 but still enough spoiler options on the table to help keep feet on the ground which won't be easy after that chartbusting 00z run

 

gensnh-7-1-228.pnggensnh-8-1-228.pnggensnh-13-1-228.png

gensnh-5-1-264.pnggensnh-3-1-240.pnggensnh-2-1-264.png

 

Ensembles should be good overall though.

Edited by Mucka
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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Yes nice to see a few runs getting the cold in within day 10 but still enough spoiler options on the table to help keep feet on the ground which won't be easy after that chartbusting 00z run

 

gensnh-7-1-228.pnggensnh-8-1-228.pnggensnh-13-1-228.png

gensnh-5-1-264.pnggensnh-3-1-240.pnggensnh-2-1-264.png

 

Ensembles should be good overall though.

Yep ensembles are much of a muchness as to what we have seen within previous suites...maybe just a tad less amplified in general. We'll be very very unlucky though IMO if we completely miss the chance to see at least a small window of snow opportunity.

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Para looks very good. Low pressure exactly where I want it.

gfs-0-144.png

Edited by daz_4
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A bit more dichotomy in the ensembles for FI... more flat lining cold options (op and control included) but also more much milder options

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=233&y=53

Would be nice to eradicate a few of those milder options in the next suite. I've looked through the evolutions one by one and even within many of those milder options, we are just unlucky with blocking and the vortex remains in disarray.

Edited by CreweCold
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Yes a lot of those milder options seem very implausible, like an escape artist being put in a straight jacket, chained and plunged into a tank of icy water but popping up free, bone dry and smiling with his assistant 30 seconds later. 

The more plausible less cold options go awry before the tank of water is wheeled on stage.

Crap analogy but I'm tired. 😩

Edited by Mucka
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35 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The GFS sequence is again probably the wildest cold run out there I think ive ever seen in terms of blocking ! The AO for 204 onwards will be sub -4 & the NAO tanked as well-

You probably couldnt imagine better charts than this - !! 

Also UKMO fully on board as well out to 144 with snow - probable SE on day 6-

Incredible runs...

A4D9FE20-EE92-44B4-B31B-6FCDEC967564.thumb.png.84b31e5dfbb2af388a6f3220422358a5.png3DFAD3F0-8BB8-45F0-9B9C-CBCCEE1929C1.thumb.png.c41d3e19f914e09447d43d086013ab94.pnga

Amazing chart, daytime highs around -15c in most of Scandinavia in early December , continent rapidly cooling down. 

Remembering it’s early winter, the lack of PV is great for future blocking chances

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