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Paul

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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3 minutes ago, snowking said:

 

2) I don’t really want Greenland height rises at this stage given such a mild 2018 across Europe so far.

Why don't you want Greenland height rises? These can pull seriously cold uppers out of the arctic, just look at the GFS parallel run... its about as good as it gets for this time of year.

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5 minutes ago, snowking said:

To return to my thoughts from the other night, and returning to point 1) - the reason I am not concerned about whether we get cold/snow in the coming week is that, as per my post earlier this week, the upcoming pattern (near record breaking Scandinavian high and, as GP aluded to earlier, Aleutian low to tow), the damage to the fledgling vortex will be near irreversible, and the longer term results across the northern hemisphere should be beneficial to the cold and snow enthusiasts among us. This is clasic wave 2 precursor stuff, and regardless of a rebounding QBO, given the current disconnect between the stratosphere and the troposphere, should play havoc with attempts from the polar vortex to set up its usual happy shop across the arctic.

In short - I’ve not been this excited about a winter since 2009/10 - and this is just the beginning...

Completely agree with this...and I tried to make this point a couple of days ago. 

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Evening all:oldsmile:

well the latest from the cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb outlook suggest's that the retrogression of the +ve height's(forecast) to head into Geenland from Scandi,this shows me that we are in a great possition with attacks from the north/northeast,i don't for the minute see the hp cell collapsing or retreating S/SE as there are lower height's there to prop the block up

610day_03.thumb.gif.f6f2fa940541b82773f8f1f87805b2fd.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.a131ee46b0bd9160437187064af0b8dd.gif

the latest NAO/AO still forecasted to tank into neg too so all is looking good at slowing the jet down,what jet lol

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.9022171c3bd508aae85ea77df10f87ac.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.d25be690303ba85b4ea8afbacfb2002e.gif

the ecm playing silly buggers with the De-Built:crazy: temps,dewpoints and wind direction,on it's own then i would of thought

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.cfa4d2b54b81a61fd354165d5a9cc3fc.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.02c84ff43fb73e9e8e9a288f89ae0c9c.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.24e0c1d91c027192ac046f4cfad44b2a.png

p.s,i am liking the 18z gfs parra with that big Alaskan hp cell,a big 2 wave pattern that if ever i saw one

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.e1a373de683256297c5ff04d0066bfdf.png

finally,at this stage,all roads are leading to cold,how cold and how snowy is anyone's guess,but it looks good for this time of the year

thanks.

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Just now, Allseasons-si said:

E

 

I thought the mean and clusters looked good and confirmed with a big swing to cold on the London graph.

Latest 15 days ensemble forecast temperature for London

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14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Completely agree with this...and I tried to make this point a couple of days ago. 

Not sure why it matters long term though, as long as your getting ridges into the pole, its breaking into the strat stil, IMO the best pattern you can get is a wave 2 split from Greenland through to the pacific.

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I thought the mean and clusters looked good and confirmed with a big swing to cold on the London graph.

Latest 15 days ensemble forecast temperature for London

yes it does

just want the op/control to follow.

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I know the precursor pattern to an SSW is scandi / Russian ridge but that can still happen later, and in the mean time we can still get belted.

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This isn't the first time that something like this has turned up on the model output recently.

But just consider, what if these charts from the FV3 at T384 actually occurred?

image.thumb.jpg.bd95020cb3ac5445039f6e75f28580b4.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.9265059ed6c4e2283b8d51fcc3082fe0.jpg

FI, yes, but the events that set this evolution occurred earlier, I would suggest. Goodnight all.

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9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

yes it does

just want the op/control to follow.

Are they surface cold or 850s cold towards the end?

Ups sorry , forgot the 🙂 seeing as i'm asking..

Edited by northwestsnow

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Chart of the day from parra

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.058611fd40ec023b26a258d7b1584194.png

that is one hell of a -NAO/AO signature.

That's just actually beautiful - 

Most likely heavy snow showers swinging in from the NE - and quite a prolonged cold spell, infact i can hand on heart say i would sacrifice the rest of winter for that chart come off like that..we'd be looking at a good 5 days minimum of a freeze, for the 1st week of December on the back of a cold anticyclonic 2nd half of Nov would be one for Kevins archives..

 

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Are they surface cold or 850s cold towards the end?

 

It does say forecasted temps for london so i would asume surface temps.

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That's just actually beautiful - 

Most likely heavy snow showers swinging in from the NE - and quite a prolonged cold spell, infact i can hand on heart say i would sacrifice the rest of winter for that chart come off like that..we'd be looking at a good 5 days minimum of a freeze, for the 1st week of December on the back of a cold anticyclonic 2nd half of Nov would be one for Kevins archives..

 

Who is Kevin?

 

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14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

yes it does

just want the op/control to follow.

Well its either inversion cold or pretty deep cold (850s) with temps only around 2degrees in the day and quite a significant cluster sub zero at night, i'm leaning towards a high just to our north..

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That is one serious blocking and i for one could say that it is best located in my view.

 

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A final note re:- the signature

i seem to recall that the gfs picked out the cold scenario back in 2010 in FL when we had a mild southerly,the hp cell did the damage back then driving WAA into the pole and  hey presto!

the signal has been there for a few days now

ok every year is different but this year looks similar.

 

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Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Just watched it too

i don't wan't to derail the thread but looking at the models,it doesn't show that scenario,well lets see what the models show tomorrow

no model is infalable,i need a harder chin to take the blow if the beeb are correct.

It might just be temporary as more WAA is pumped up and by the following tuesday we could have a Greenland block and getting ready for a NE flow, dont forget a few runs recently have given out a short unsettled spell via an atlantic trough just brushing us in the middle of all the cold.

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49 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Chart of the day from parra

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.058611fd40ec023b26a258d7b1584194.png

that is one hell of a -NAO/AO signature.

Incredible. To my eye, that’s a fetch of cold that is over 3x the entire breadth of the USA 😨!! 

Many people, including most of my friends who are more or less oblivious to the weather and have no knowledge at all of past events such as 1963, 78 or even 87/91 were alienated and gobsmacked at the copious and drifting snow back in February. That was only really a 3-5 day affair too. So it would be very interesting to see how they would cope or react to a full month of winter brutality! This December could well be the month that delivers the test! 

We shall see. 

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

It might just be temporary as more WAA is pumped up and by the following tuesday we could have a Greenland block and getting ready for a NE flow, dont forget a few runs recently have given out a short unsettled spell via an atlantic trough just brushing us in the middle of all the cold.

That shortwave running west under the block could be a pain as in lingering around the S uk and been picked up be the trough to the west,that would be the scenario that i would not want to see as it picks up a southerly(ecm) the other day.

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Look, thats the trough she's on about.

ECH1-192_hrz9.GIF

 

almost exactly as she had it - but you wouldnt rule out cold returning shortly after that would you?

 

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look, thats the trough she's on about.

ECH1-192_hrz9.GIF

 

almost exactly as she had it - but you wouldnt rule out cold returning shortly after that would you?

 

Nah.

 

I've only really seen it from the ECM though. Unless I am completely missing something elsewhere. Possibly. It is quite late/early.

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It might just be temporary as more WAA is pumped up and by the following tuesday we could have a Greenland block and getting ready for a NE flow, dont forget a few runs recently have given out a short unsettled spell via an atlantic trough just brushing us in the middle of all the cold.

 

Maybe or I haven't got a clue so just stick anything on there might be the answer? Which given the output, don't blame them! Either way not the cleverest thing to say by the beeb

Edited by Dave Kightley

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1 minute ago, Dave Kightley said:

 

Maybe though or I haven't got a clue so just stick anything on there might be the answer? Either way not the cleverest thing to say by the beeb

Its a possible outcome but i dont think it would necessarily be the end of our chances, the thing i find very strange is to me it looks a replica of the ECM op without any modifications when its a clear outlier, not saying we are going into the freezer as per recent GFS and tonights GFS(p) and ensembles, but you would think a little bit more thought might go into which graphic they choose to use.

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