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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

234 - 276 is one of the weirdest, unrealistic evolutions I think I've ever seen from a model, the high literally melts like butter in a frying pan!

234.thumb.png.8104890b80659fa06094269cb59d7f64.png276.thumb.png.84f698646c37bfaab936733e2cfcd44c.png

Low res will do that. After 240 everything gets watered down. 

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

234 - 276 is one of the weirdest, unrealistic evolutions I think I've ever seen from a model, the high literally melts like butter in a frying pan!

234.thumb.png.8104890b80659fa06094269cb59d7f64.png276.thumb.png.84f698646c37bfaab936733e2cfcd44c.png

And yet, even with that we get deep cold approaching the UK from the north east.

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As we Europeans are wont to say: get the snow in first and the deep cold will follow...

Netweather GFS Image

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

IN about 5 days time, a ridge will be at least touching Greenland, perhaps a few hundred miles out but your talking week 4, your not going to get the detail right at that range.

The biggest/huge height anomaly is to our north east - record breaking dam? The ec46 hadn't even sniffed it. 

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Europe...

Cracks the thermometer...

The mercury bulb begins to become unstable!!!

Fridgidity-makes landfall...a continuing modeled prognosis.

gfs-1-312.png

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1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The biggest/huge height anomaly is to our north east - record breaking dam? The ec46 hadn't even sniffed it. 

Its sniffs it for Week 5 though - again, your not going to be that  accurate wrt positioning or timing at that range.

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How often do we see sub-25C uppers in November?

Netweather GFS Image

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its sniffs it for Week 5 though - again, your not going to be that  accurate wrt positioning or timing at that range.

Really? Hardly a record breaking anomaly. 

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018101800_0936.png

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It's becoming increasingly clear that the initial attack of cold air won't have enough bite to deliver anything other than cold drizzle.....

However what comes after could be very interesting and we have a decent punt at a '2010' type event happening towards month end.

What is very certain is that the global warming phenomenon is creating a climate in UK/Ireland that could be very continental and wintry!!

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5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

234 - 276 is one of the weirdest, unrealistic evolutions I think I've ever seen from a model, the high literally melts like butter in a frying pan!

I agree.  GFS 18z at T348:

image.thumb.jpg.b85d454b365179fa36a01e4c20c0d488.jpg

Vortex marmalised and shoved in the direction of Europe and Asia, but we're it not for that weird period you mention, I was expecting it to be cleaved in half north/south.  Still great guns for UK cold, let's see what the FV3 brings... 

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That’s one messed up PV . And warming up nicely up there . SSW ? 

BFD3769C-C8C6-4CB5-B707-9999A803B457.png

E1C24144-313A-403A-B2EE-E49DC2EB8613.png

C8331CB0-1DF9-40D8-8520-AE07E7468138.png

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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The biggest/huge height anomaly is to our north east - record breaking dam? The ec46 hadn't even sniffed it. 

Just looked at ec46 from 22 Oct and weeks 3 and 4 show a growing scandi high height anomaly ..........

 

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3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Really? Hardly a record breaking anomaly. 

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2018101800_0936.png

Are you really expecting a 51 member suite mean to really suggest a 20dam +ve anomaly at week 4 or 5???

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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And the block starts to build again towards the end @Steve Murr . Repeat,repeat and repeat . That will suit us all fine . 

EDIT- posted wrong chart

5CADB1A3-D274-48AD-B1F8-1453D458EA27.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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And it's 'as you were' at T+384: slack pressure gradients and widespread freezing fog. I'll take that!

Netweather GFS Image

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

How often do we see sub-25C uppers in November?

Netweather GFS Image

Beasts available from east and north on this one! 

The crazy thing is, as @feb1991blizzardhas shown above, the ECM ensembles keep telling us this is actually on! 

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

How often do we see sub-25C uppers in November?

Netweather GFS Image

Good point.  There seems to be more cold air around for the time of year.  Or am I just not remembering correctly?

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Are you really expecting a 51 suite member mean to really suggest a 20dam +ve anomaly at week 4 or 5???

I would expect it to show a more defined anomaly to be honest. Anyway, BA has has pointed out that it smelt the coffee a week later so all is forgiven ec46 - for now 🙂

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Regarding the ec46, I don’t put any faith in it beyond week 4 and only take weeks 3 and 4 into account if they are consistent with previous output ..... not happening at the moment ......

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