Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Was a weak Broad Sceuro high anomaly week 4..........doesn’t look like it repeats  on this run and nothing of note re wintry conditions beyond 

Was this upcoming block picked up on the EC46 4 weeks ago?

[MP-R]

27 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Can get snow much more easily on a continental landmass than on an island though. Hence it can snow as far south as the Sahara with uppers at 0’C while the UK gets cold rain from -6’C uppers.

That of course being due to altitude. Any snow making setup as far south of that has to come from the north i.e. across hundreds of miles of Mediterranean.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Was this upcoming block picked up on the EC46 4 weeks ago?

Weeks 3,4 and 5 from the run exactly 4 weeks ago tonight.

EDIT - and week 6

 

 

Not perfect but a decent effort IMO.

Edited November 15, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[tight isobar]

Very decent....

Keep an-eye for the azores injection.

Everyrhing tighter out east also...

This would be a grest evolving evolution.

And would keep the door a-jar...while the deeper cold develops!

[Alpine glow]

2 hours ago, matt111 said:

It might be a downgrade if you were expecting nirvana next week, otherwise maybe not so much of one. 

I’d bet that we all had visions of a white wonderland when in reality we actually all knew that it was going to be an unseasonably cold spell, nothing spectacular. It will feel like winter!

its been a long, hot, dry summer for us coldies... this is fun! 

[Met4Cast]

Much better GFS 18z compared with the 12z. Stronger blocking, more inline with the GEFS and EPS

[Ice Day]

At 192 we're getting tantalisingly close to a potent easterly.  Will it make it???

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Much better GFS 18z compared with the 12z. Stronger blocking, more inline with the GEFS and EPS

And the trigger about to be pulled and some searing cold and strong winds to come down from the North and hit somewhere in Europe.

[seabreeze86]

Raw is the word I would choose to describe the east coast next week. Looks like the pub run is going to deliver again here deeper cold coming into Scandinavia and destination Greenland with the high I think 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Weeks 3,4 and 5 from the run exactly 4 weeks ago tonight.

EDIT - and week 6

 

 

Not perfect but a decent effort IMO.

How can this be .?  .... apparently the ec 46 is a waste of time ..........garbage .........

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Weeks 3,4 and 5 from the run exactly 4 weeks ago tonight.

EDIT - and week 6

 

 

Not perfect but a decent effort IMO.

Looks like a bust to me. The week 4 chart should be where we are are but absolutely no sign of height rises to our north east. The ec46 totally missed the huge scandi high that is about to develop. 

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

How can this be .?  .... apparently the ec 46 is a waste of time ..........garbage .........

It wasnt me who said it  BA, or i cant remember doing that anyway.

Edited November 15, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[BlueHedgehog074]

3 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I agree with you 100%. This is a great thread as it's a little more relaxed for members like myself who are a bit more nervous as we are not experts. It's a shame other mods want to ban met talk completely on this thread even if it's talking about the current models also showing cold. It's a shame that when you speak out like my post just now it quickly gets deleted. You should be able to ask a question. Keep up the good work Diagonalredline. 

Thanks!

Some of other moderators may not agree, but sometimes using the likes Met Office and BBC forecasts etc as an extra back up for a model discussion post can be useful. Still possible for posts to stay on topic if, again, any chat of the Met Office etc contains model input! (Would only be a real problem if the thread got completely derailed because of it).  

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T210, this run really getting interesting now, here's the charts:

Perfect alignment for advection for the cold to the UK.

But if the cross polar connection is made (I think likely in the later stages of this run but not certain) then look at what is waiting in the wings to the NE!

Edited November 15, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks like a bust to me. The week 4 chart should be where we are are but absolutely no sign of height rises to our north east. The ec46 totally missed the huge scandi high that is about to develop. 

Timing issues yes but it was showing Northern blocking with low heights to the South.

[seabreeze86]

The 18z is very close to being spectacular here. There can't be many times the Atlantic has looked like this in November. The Atlantic looks like it has given up

Edited November 15, 2018 by seabreeze86

[Met4Cast]

I hope this demonstrates why jumping to conclusions based on a single run is a silly idea - The GEFS/EPS whilst are flawed in many ways are our best bet to get an idea in the medium but particularly extended timeframe. They're useless for small shortwave features but for large-scale blocking such as this, they're incredibly helpful. 

Griceland block remaining in situ completely cut off whilst true Arctic air spreads through Europe directly aimed at the UK - Another WAA pulse coming up too, look towards West Greenland!

[MattStoke]

Yet another very blocked run. Europe into the freezer in ‘FI’, and maybe the UK to follow. No Atlantic dominated weather to be seen.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Timing issues yes but it was showing Northern blocking with low heights to the South.

Totally wrong in many respects though. Just one example - week 4 shows higher anomaly to our north west. The opposite is the case right now. 

[Methuselah]

Will even more cold air flood into mainland Europe? It's starting to look like it:

[tight isobar]

Casting aside the obvious ie- hp cell placement...

The saving grace on initial/probable inflow...may likely be as again the spiking of the az-head....

Raising up and acting as the holding player...aiding the forcing of waa..and stabilsing the fomat...

The the cold gathers and builds...and heads only 1 way...great great run...and things worthy of note as we gain and progress.. 

Edited November 15, 2018 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Totally wrong in many respects though. Just one example - week 4 shows higher anomaly to our north west. The opposite is the case right now. 

IN about 5 days time, a ridge will be at least touching Greenland, perhaps a few hundred miles out but your talking week 4, your not going to get the detail right at that range.

[Geordiesnow]

In fairness the GFS18Z was fairly consistant upto about 144 hours where we start too see on this run the shallow low does not travel up towards the UK instead we remain in a chilly but at this point cloudy NE'ly flow. 

I think the models have sort of backed away from the true retrogression in the medium term hence why the blocking is more towards the Norwegian sea than Greenland which in turns mean the Northerly signal has somewhat backed down however the positives are, no Atlantic lows are in the forecasts and no signs of the block sinking either. 

We'll see what tomorrow morning runs will bring, interesting times. 

[Mapantz]

Let's stop with silly replies and posts that are adding nothing to this thread. I'm not here to stop any fun or enjoyment, but some of the posts are just ridiculous and they'll just get hidden.

If you have any queries about anything regarding moderation, this is not the place to ask them. Kindly contact a mod via PM with your issue.

Carry on!

[Met4Cast]

234 - 276 is one of the weirdest, unrealistic evolutions I think I've ever seen from a model, the high literally melts like butter in a frying pan!