Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Methuselah]

I just hope that Scandi high takes over completely, from the Euro blob?

[Methuselah]

It has!

[Man With Beard]

ECM op did not deliver lowland snow to the UK but lots just across the channel. Must be a close call. 

In any case, it's not as if it's the only chance in the next 15 days - probably! 

[Mike Poole]

Cut off high GFS 18z T84:

Should be interesting run this one!

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM op did not deliver lowland snow to the UK but lots just across the channel. Must be a close call. 

In any case, it's not as if it's the only chance in the next 15 days - probably! 

Can get snow much more easily on a continental landmass than on an island though. Hence it can snow as far south as the Sahara with uppers at 0’C while the UK gets cold rain from -6’C uppers.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Can get snow much more easily on a continental landmass than on an island though. Hence it can snow as far south as the Sahara with uppers at 0’C while the UK gets cold rain from -6’C uppers.

especially in November, I'm more a fan of late cold, more effective, like 27 Feb-02 Mar beast

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Can get snow much more easily on a continental landmass than on an island though. Hence it can snow as far south as the Sahara with uppers at 0’C while the UK gets cold rain from -6’C uppers.

But the odds of continental weather being replicated over the UK increase greatly when the wind only has 26 miles of water to cross

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Any information on the ec46?

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Any information on the ec46?

Week 3 trough anchored to West of us with weak Greenland +ve anomaly, week 4 +ve anomaly slap bang over us would to me indicate anticyclonic signal.

Edited November 15, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

But the odds of continental weather being replicated over the UK increase greatly when the wind only has 26 miles of water to cross

True! Still would be some moderation of the cold air with the pretty high SSTs we have at the moment though, I would imagine.

Anyway, not seeing much difference on the 18z out to 114 hours. Pretty solid.

[Geordiesnow]

26 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Always wondered whether this statement is scientifically proven? It's common knowledge that colder air is denser than warmer air, but is it actually that hard to shift for this part of the world (surrounded by the ocean and the winds)

There are certainly examples where the cold appears to form a wall against warmer moister air, but there are equally as many examples where cold air has been quickly pushed well away despite all the odds.

I think it's more to do with pressure. Wherever the pressure moves, the air will be displaced with it regardless of density. Even huge cumbersome cells of high pressure tend to get easily overwhelmed in this part of the world. 

Its probably like that in any part of the world really, strong winds can shift even deep polar air fairly easily hence why we see the PV can be dislodged even when it fully forms and why i would not get too downhearted if we did see a strong PV forming. I mean, there was a reason why the winters of the 60's was cold and it is because of the strength of the PV. Its definately not as strong these days. 

No real signficant changes so far on the GFS18Z run, perhaps not as convective as the 12Z run as thicknesses are a bit higher due to the high being slightly closer to the UK? 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Week 3 trough anchored to West of us with weak Greenland +ve anomaly, week 4 +ve anomaly slap bang over us would to me indicate anticyclonic signa.

Sounds like quite a change to the last update, which had a central-south European high?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Sounds like quite a change to the last update, which had a central-south European high?

There is a very weak anomaly over France in week 3.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

Its probably like that in any part of the world really, strong winds can shift even deep polar air fairly easily hence why we see the PV can be dislodged even when it fully forms and why i would not get too downhearted if we did see a strong PV forming. I mean, there was a reason why the winters of the 60's was cold and it is because of the strength of the PV. Its definately not as strong these days. 

No real signficant changes so far on the GFS18Z run, perhaps not as convective as the 12Z run as thicknesses are a bit higher due to the high being slightly closer to the UK? 

hope so! was dreading getting wet next week, the closer to the UK the high is, the better

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Indeed Matt, but I am worried somewhat. For eg, the video posted today by the Met Office,  "I've been talking to the medium range guys, longer range forecasters in regards to snow at end of November and they say there is no strong signal for that!" Wonder why the Met can't see any potential cold. 

Praying for some superb 18Z runs, I hope!  

Because they couldn’t or wouldn’t see next week coming a month or so ago.  It’s coming on cue, and I’m very comfortable with snow before ,months end....

 

BFTP

Edited November 15, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BlueHedgehog074]

16 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

 

I'm confused,  one says we can mention met office discussion if it's to do with the colder weather what is showing on the models and another mod saying we can't??  

Hi, The BEAST From The East!

Personally, I think it’s fine to discuss Met Office and BBC content in here, providing the posts  that include that content also has model discussion in them.

But if the posts are just about the Met Office and BBC only (with no reference to the models in them), then technically they belong in more suitable threads. 

Sorry for it being unclear. 

Edited November 15, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine
Added a bit extra

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Its probably like that in any part of the world really, strong winds can shift even deep polar air fairly easily hence why we see the PV can be dislodged even when it fully forms and why i would not get too downhearted if we did see a strong PV forming. I mean, there was a reason why the winters of the 60's was cold and it is because of the strength of the PV. Its definately not as strong these days. 

No real signficant changes so far on the GFS18Z run, perhaps not as convective as the 12Z run as thicknesses are a bit higher due to the high being slightly closer to the UK? 

But if cold, dense air-masses were not relatively hard to shift, they'd be unable to act as blocks?

[Mike Poole]

Pub run at T144:

That high that was cut off earlier really obvious on the T850 chart.  Prediction: this one is a vortex ripper!  

[Derecho]

Look at for this low over Canada to pump up the block. We want the mild air between Canada and western Greenland, that is what can damage the vortex.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I just hope that Scandi high takes over completely, from the Euro blob?

From there...where else ?

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Ec mean suggest to me its quite a way back to a +NAO set up post day 10..

Didn’t you quote nirvana 2hrs ago RE the mean?

 

BFTP

[MattStoke]

More WAA up the eastern side of Canada at 162hours. Maybe another Greenland high incoming, leading to a northerly.

Edited November 15, 2018 by MattStoke

[Ice Day]

Building blocks still falling into place nicely on the 18z.  This at 156.

The chunk of vortex over Siberia is being forced south, then hopefully we'll see it moving our way!?

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Sounds like quite a change to the last update, which had a central-south European high?

Was a weak Broad Sceuro high anomaly week 4..........doesn’t look like it repeats  on this run and nothing of note re wintry conditions beyond 

[Guest]

ARCTIC UPDATE - MIXED NEWS ON ICE EXTENT, 2M SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SSTS

I thought that some of you might be interested in my Arctic update which I just posted on the "Arctic Ice Data and Stats" thread.  Some of this is relevant to the upcoming cold spell, "the hunt for cold" and what the models may or may not factor in. There has been a strong recovery in Arctic ice extent during the last 4 weeks, surface temperature anomalies are mostly not as high as they have been for much of the last 3 months and even the widespread very high SST anomalies have eased slightly. Snow cover anomalies have increased rapidly in the last couple of weeks on the Siberian/Russian side although they are higher in the Canadian Arctic. Loads of maps and charts to show all that.  Here's the direct link. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/74411-arctic-ice-data-and-stats/?do=findComment&comment=3922381