Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening,late to the party tonight,sorry! but what a great set of runs this evening/tonight from a sobering morning of output of which was a bit of a downgrade and just shows you how finely balanced the weather can be,expect more chopping and changing to come as always when it comes to nailing narnia down to t0

what is certain is the block to our NE with an easterly of sorts,here are the latest wind directions from De-Built

as you can see,all members(well 90 odd%) are going for this now,remember what i posted som days ago about getting more members on board?:-

the latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb height anomoly's,the Atlantic is dead in the water there and hints of a trough forming out towards Siberia

the latest from the NAO/AO still tanking

10-hpa zonal mean zonal wind

we are in a good position here but will we land with the lottery ticket?

i liked this.

 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

The jma and mean at 264.

the gefs 850hpa temps(cet)

[Mucka]

GFS 00z was a very cold and blocked run. PV has relocated.

 

[Seasonality]

Another belter of a run from the GFS 00z in FI. A real depth of cold for so early on in the season. This sort of end to November is a repeating theme. Still just for fun this far out and without ECM agreement. 

[Dave Kightley]

39 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS 00z was a very cold and blocked run. PV has relocated.

 

That is going to be a painfully long wait to get that 384h to 0h

Edited November 15, 2018 by Dave Kightley

[Mucka]

[Dave Kightley]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Slightly OTT at the end without much support!! Getting the real cold uppers into the UK look a problem.. Given the time of Year as well you may need lower then -5 to get widespread snow

Edited November 15, 2018 by Dave Kightley

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Slightly OTT at the end without much support!! Getting the real cold uppers into the UK look a problem.. Given the time of Year as well you may need lower then -5 to get widespread snow

That is actually a pretty good mean for FI and the scatter is misleading either way.

If we get the sort of blocked synoptic GFS Op keeps throwing up then the frigid air is sure to hit us sooner or later.

It is always a game of patience getting proper cold to the UK because even if we get a good block it has to position and orientate itself to drag in those really cold 850's for it to snow here.

[Dave Kightley]

10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

That is actually a pretty good mean for FI and the scatter is misleading either way.

If we get the sort of blocked synoptic GFS Op keeps throwing up then the frigid air is sure to hit us sooner or later.

It is always a game of patience getting proper cold to the UK because even if we get a good block it has to position and orientate itself to drag in those really cold 850's for it to snow here.

To be honest there isn't much between them hovering around 0 to -5 throughout which is pretty decent given the type of pattern it's up against! May have to wait for the snow away from the hills!

Edited November 15, 2018 by Dave Kightley

[Met4Cast]

Overnight UKMO fairly decent too!

Pretty solid Greenland retrogression signal on the GEFS mean too! 

Fantastic start to the day!

 

 

[daz_4]

No model wants to back down it seems. ECM vs. GFS para at 120

[Met4Cast]

ECM looks a little better at 144 to me compared to yesterdays 12z output

[Mr snowman 2018]

ECM looks good at 144 !

[Mr snowman 2018]

ECM at 168 hours 

[Met4Cast]

Slightly worrying that the ECM is making such a big deal out of the low pressure pushing into the UK rather than sending it under the block

You’d expect it to have a better grasp at that timescale 

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Slightly worrying that the ECM is making such a big deal out of the low pressure pushing into the UK rather than sending it under the block

You’d expect it to have a better grasp at that timescale 

It could have a great grasp though and be on the right path - nothing to say it's wrong, just another evolution. 

The high does seem to have got a bit bloated in that grab, slipping in to SE Europe with little propping it up. In reality I think it would just split with the low propping up developing heights over the GIN and a NE feed coming in.

[Met4Cast]

4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It could have a great grasp though and be on the right path - nothing to say it's wrong, just another evolution. 

The high does seem to have got a bit bloated in that grab, slipping in to SE Europe with little propping it up. In reality I think it would just split with the low propping up developing heights over the GIN and a NE feed coming in.

Exactly, that’s why I said it was worrying. 

The OP was out of sync with it’s 12z ensemble suite, I suspect the same will be true this morning

[Mr snowman 2018]

ECM at 216 hmmm ??

[blizzard81]

Ecm really latching onto the spoiler bay of biscay low. Two op runs on the trot. Knife edge stuff now and we are relying on the arctic high which hardly ever comes to our rescue. This could all start to unravel very quickly if the ecm has nailed that low to our south. 

[Met4Cast]

240 wouldn’t be the end of the world but it’s no GFS 

We’ll see where it sits within the ensembles/clusters in a few hours, I suspect it’s being overly progressive, nothing to panic about just yet. Every other model is currently against the ECM 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

240 wouldn’t be the end of the world but it’s no GFS 

We’ll see where it sits within the ensembles/clusters in a few hours, I suspect it’s being overly progressive, nothing to panic about just yet. Every other model is currently against the ECM 

For the 27th November of any year, that is a tremendous chart for cold. 

All roads are leading to a period of below to well below average temperatures.

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

For the 27th November of any year, that is a tremendous chart for cold. 

All roads are leading to a period of below to well below average temperatures.

Exactly - I've seen far worse over the years! If that had just popped up, people would be drooling!

[jules216]

The ECMWF is very progressive in the short term with the westward progression of that through which cuts us all from the cold pool in western Russia, on the upside it has improved long term as can be seen(NAO,AO)by comparison against its evening run 

[DanBaynes]

0z icon at 120 doesn't look to bad,

[Met4Cast]

180 ICON isn’t terrible but it’s a downgrade on yesterdays run, there’s a lot of energy near Greenland & it makes more of that disturbance coming Westwards out of Europe turning it into a shortwave. 

Not too sure where it’d go from there for a UK perspective but a massive cold pool has It’s eyes on Europe at least.