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Paul

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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4 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Most annoying thing is regarding 18z is mainland Europe hasn’t Cooled down enough, and ssts haven’t cooled enough. The chart for next Friday is very similar to 2010, just the uppers not matching it. Keeping the faith though, let’s hope for upgrades or something from then North/ North East a little further down the line. ?

Yeah the 18z is a pretty benign run up until the middle time range. If it verified then I can imagine users coming back later next week asking what all the fuss was about under dull drizzly/sleety weather. The uppers are not cold enough, they need to be a good deal colder for when they get moderated by the North Sea.

Hate to be a killjoy but that's just how it is, the 18z is a boring run unless there is a secondary retrogression.

If we miss the first chance it is a big lost oppurtunity IMO, the cold uppers are pushed way back over Russia.

We must remember it is one run although plenty of the 12z ensemble members showed it.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

That's some cold pool is that!

Netweather GFS Image

18z doesn't have the uppers anywhere near at the same timeframe

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There have been no model runs that have shown any deep cold next week, not just the 18z....

Any deep cold has always been way off in la la land but it’s the general pattern that is and always has been of more interest this early in the season and going forward.

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Northerly st 240hrs  but to be honest as likely to verify as the ecm or any other model  still way to many variables to make a realible call 

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4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yeah the 18z is a pretty benign run up until the middle time range. If it verified then I can imagine users coming back later next week asking what all the fuss was about under dull drizzly/sleety weather. The uppers are not cold enough, they need to be a good deal colder for when they get moderated by the North Sea.

Hate to be a killjoy but that's just how it is, the 18z is a boring run unless there is a secondary retrogression.

If we miss the first chance it is a big lost oppurtunity IMO, the cold uppers are pushed way back over Russia.

We must remember it is one run although plenty of the 12z ensemble members showed it.

Yes, totally agree.  However, even on such a 'benign run' we're still seeing multiple opportunities at setting up a Greenie high and keeping the PV disorganised.  As long as this trend continues, it should only be a matter of time until we see something meaningful for the UK!?

gfsnh-0-240.png?18

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Whooooaaahh, what's happening here, pub run T264:

image.thumb.jpg.9689c940c983ac79e72ca5b192c0d839.jpg

Shades of the FV3 12z. If we get into this sort of territory things could get very very interesting.

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yep pub run has a couple of whiskeys

gfs-2-276.png?18

gfs-2-288.png?18

Edited by andymusic
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Phew, taken me ages to read this great new thread. Incredible charts for this time of year. great to be back in the hunt guys ?

For me the most exciting thing about what is being shown is the potential for December/January. It would take some pretty astonishing cold uppers here in Cornwall to get snow on the ground in November.  

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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Yes, totally agree.  However, even on such a 'benign run' we're still seeing multiple opportunities at setting up a Greenie high and keeping the PV disorganised.  As long as this trend continues, it should only be a matter of time until we see something meaningful for the UK!?

gfsnh-0-240.png?18

Yup the 18z gets it's act together later on! If warm air can be pumped up to western Greenland then further attempts at northerlies are possible! but I would rather see it at T0 then T300 ?

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10 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Most annoying thing is regarding 18z is mainland Europe hasn’t Cooled down enough, and ssts haven’t cooled enough. The chart for next Friday is very similar to 2010, just the uppers not matching it. Keeping the faith though, let’s hope for upgrades or something from then North/ North East a little further down the line. ?

Wouldn't of eastern Europe cooled down enough by next Saturday then

Enough to support colder uppers than what's suggested at this moment. 

Sorry for the awkward question

At this time of night I don't expect an answer ..

 

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1 minute ago, sorepaw1 said:

Wouldn't of eastern Europe cooled down enough by next Saturday then

Enough to support colder uppers than what's suggested at this moment. 

Sorry for the awkward question

At this time of night I don't expect an answer ..

 

current ssts will be a big problem - warm seas around uk coasts will dilute the upper air temps - but if the uppers are cold enough the ssts will then be beneficial and act more like a snow machine with the temp contrast

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18 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

More WAA into east Canada at 198h. Maybe another Greenland high coming later in this run, with a resultant northerly.

And there we go....

7C668199-D3C2-4B49-B825-D97F257938D4.png

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And it goes on till the end . The most important thing is the alantic is dead . The cold blocked pattens keep appearing every run and it’s just variations of the same theme .

8A4BEE8F-5D92-4265-B77F-1F93BCF482D9.png

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1 minute ago, andymusic said:

current ssts will be a big problem - warm seas around uk coasts will dilute the upper air temps - but if the uppers are cold enough the ssts will then be beneficial and act more like a snow machine with the temp contrast

Thanks for that I was wondering about the North Sea temp at this time of year.

I remember in 1995 an easterly and a warmer than average sea temp the East Coast saw 18" of snow in 48 hrs.

Thanks great reply.

 

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Call me an old cynic  but I have an inclin that opp run will  be below the mean after 240   ?

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3 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

In some ways, would probably agree. It’s just trying to get that right balance between keeping things running nice and smoothly in here, yet not being too hard on those excited by the charts that’s on offer. I think sometimes we perhaps can be a little harsh, with this being the Hunt For Cold thread and all. It’s understandable for people to get all ecstatic when cold and snowy weather breaks loose on the models and would hate to ruin the mood. As longs as there’s no rude/bad behaviour and that posts don’t stray too off-topic, I feel it’s fair to consider everyone the room to express there excitement, thoughts and opinions on here.

There is obviously the other Model threads that can be used for more general discussions of the models and for those who prefer something slower paced. We sometimes wonder if it’s worth opening up a Model Moans, Banter and Ramps thread again for people to let some steam off in there, and to merge the Hunt For Cold thread with the general discussion Model thread. But we’ll probably see how this current setup continues to go for now! (Unless I suppose we get enough requests from people to change the structure of how things are done in the Model area. Maybe even start up a poll about it someday). ?

I think this is working perfectly well. The hunt for cold is what the majority of us want. We have model thread as well. Great job 

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Pub run, this is how it ends...to be continued?

image.thumb.jpg.4aee721c537887de40b6a853820e8c35.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.fc8d0f742d45ff4b04a4505ec688adc2.jpg

All roads lead to Rome? Don't quite know the relevance of that but it sprung to mind  watching this evenings output! ❄️

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7 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

In some ways, would probably agree. It’s just trying to get that right balance between keeping things running nice and smoothly in here, yet not being too hard on those excited by the charts that’s on offer. I think sometimes we perhaps can be a little harsh, with this being the Hunt For Cold thread and all. It’s understandable for people to get all ecstatic when cold and snowy weather breaks loose on the models and would hate to ruin the mood. As longs as there’s no rude/bad behaviour and that posts don’t stray too off-topic, I feel it’s fair to consider everyone the room to express there excitement, thoughts and opinions on here.

There is obviously the other Model threads that can be used for more general discussions of the models and for those who prefer something slower paced. We sometimes wonder if it’s worth opening up a Model Moans, Banter and Ramps thread again for people to let some steam off in, and to merge the Hunt For Cold thread with the general discussion Model thread. But we’ll probably see how this current setup continues to go for now! (Unless I suppose we get enough requests from people to change the structure of how things are done in the Model area. Maybe even start up a poll about it someday). ?

As I posted a few days ago it seems to have worked well allowing some off topic posts providing they don't derail the whole thread or cause arguments or the like..... oh wait I'm derailing the thread.... :oops:

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