Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Mike Poole]

this  is interesting   GFS T240:

Not nearly as interesting as to what follows, T288

whooooaahh!

Edited November 13, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Cheshire Freeze]

The block collapses...but can we salvage a scandi wedge?

If so, there's a lot of cold air to tap into...

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

no where near as progressive though, deep FI on 12Z was very good for us, especially chart I posted in regionals

Prefer a slower evolution this early in the season. More time for cold pooling and for the near continent to cool down.

Edited November 13, 2018 by MattStoke

[Spah1]

All just variations on a theme. 

Lets hope the ECM sends more energy under in the morning. 

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

27 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Fred, this is the UK...all options are on the table 

In this instance I don't think it'll matter a jot what happens with this more immediate progression when we look at the end game. I'm relaxed for now 

Ha ha Aaron....of cse!

What a wonderful 18z ....rock solid.....and tbf anything beyond 7 days in the models is way in FI.  NIRVANA, zonal etc......especially when the theme is set over coming week...reload must happen

 

BFTP

Edited November 13, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ICE COLD]

Yer it’s a topper . Still get some decent cold tho . 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Prefer a slower evolution this early in the season. More time cold pooling and for the near continent to cool down.

Ay, but 12Z was an arctic true NW'ly, 18Z isn't, but FI and will vary of course

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The block collapses...but can we salvage a scandi wedge?

If so, there's a lot of cold air to tap into...

The main thing is that the high makes it to Greenland. The GFS goes crazy with that low over Newfoundland at T264 so it is probably being overly progressive lol. Ahhh GFS and its dartboard lows, classic.

[MattStoke]

In just a few frames the GFS replaces a 1045mb Greenland High with a hurricane force low. Ha!

[ICE COLD]

Not bad not bad . Variations of the same theme . 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, MattStoke said:

In just a few frames the GFS replaces a 1045mb Greenland High with a hurricane force low. Ha!

Perfectly plausible. We've seen it happen in many winters past.

Just one run though and I still maintain that any mobility we do see after the Scandi-Greenland HP scenario will yield once again to a more wintry pattern in December.

[ICE COLD]

It’s having another go tho .

[seabreeze86]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

In just a few frames the GFS replaces a 1045mb Greenland High with a hurricane force low. Ha!

Don't worry matt it's having another go at a Greenland High at the end of the run. This could be a repeating patten over the next few weeks 

[Cheshire Freeze]

This is what I was referring to earlier with regards to what happens if the first attempt fails

The atmosphere will remain conducive to amplification attempts...

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

The main thing is that the high makes it to Greenland. The GFS goes crazy with that low over Newfoundland at T264 so it is probably being overly progressive lol. Ahhh GFS and its dartboard lows, classic.

Yep and thats all that matters at the moment, not about the details of what each run will produce as a result so the 18Z is another promising run in my eyes. 

It did seemed to however want to develop many shortwaves over Greenland before the high manages to get there mind and I will still say the form horse is for pressure to remain fairly high to the North of the UK and for the UK to have a continental airflow than an Arctic one rather than any retrogression into Greenland as the models do show this but very rarely actually get there but you can't rule out the potential Northerly out by any means.

[ICE COLD]

And it ends with the high pushing back into Greenland. 

[booferking]

So we went from a 1045 Greenland high to a hurricane back to a 1030 Greenland high in the one run

[feb1991blizzard]

Clusters are decent out to around 300 although taper off a bit right at the end.

[MattStoke]

Aye. From the snippets I’ve seen from some very knowledgeable people, I’d be surprised to see a prolonged spell of ‘zonality’ anytime soon.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And it ends with the high pushing back into Greenland. 

Something to note....in my pad to keep an eye on.....the fact that heights quickly regain with further cold blast.....is that LP going to be a big countrywide snow event?

 

BFTP

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Aye. From the snippets I’ve seen from some very knowledgeable people, I’d be surprised to see a prolonged spell of ‘zonality’ anytime soon.

Yes however as we all know, the atmosphere is a fickle thing and it can change very quickly for both ways really. Look at the very start of the GFS run and you would think it looks a long way to potential high latitude blocking and yet that is what all the models fully agree on happening. Of course at this time of year especially, it does not gurantee it will turn wintry mind and that is always the caveat unfortunately. 

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Clusters are decent out to around 300 although taper off a bit right at the end.

Yer there better than I though they would be . 

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Clusters are decent out to around 300 although taper off a bit right at the end.

Still looking pretty good. 

Trouble after a day like today - expectations can go fast too high, and good charts are no longer good enough because they aren't incredible. Still in for a good November cold spell, how good will be in the lap of the D4/D5 charts. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GEFS mean in terms of pressure is even better at days 10/11 than the 12z set

Control run is epic...not many times you'll see a Russian and N Atlantic/Greenland HP in tandem...

Edited November 13, 2018 by CreweCold

[karlos1983]

Cracking Pub run 

And.. The ECM was on the mild side of its ENS