Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
 Share

Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
    2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    This is a bit of a myth really because Northerlies can produce snowfall in November and the potential for a Northerly is there, especially if the Greenland high does develop. The ECM does not quite do it but high latitude blocking remains and certainly no sinker.

    Also worth noting on the Northern hemisphere charts on the ECM is that this morning's run had more heights over the Arctic than this afternoon's run which goes to show how the outlook can vary from run to run and theres no reason why it can't return the other way. 

    Either way, an easterly flow which will gradually turn colder is still on the cards and its where we go after that which remains the big question.

    Correct. The most likely way to see nationwide snow in nov-early Dec would be from a straight Northly rather than Easterly (to early)..eventually the Easterly will produce but will take a long time given temps & SSTs..

    Its going to turn  colder but how cold will depend on where the high settles.

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    Just now, Summer Sun said:

    The ECM 12z op and mean isn't far away tonight on the 850's

    12z                                                                     00z

    graphe_ens3.thumb.png.aadad06482980c2c96508792f5549eca.png673895403_graphe_ens3(1).thumb.png.a29499f02a6e4d87127ec1439a1197b4.png

    Pressure wise it's also much closer than this morning the op is still a bit lower than the mean but the gap is nothing like the 00z

    At it's lowest this morning it was 1005mb now it's 1015mb

    12z                                                                     00z

    1206490887_graphe_ens3(1).thumb.png.3e3cc05b3d4973fdb61864e15211aa61.pnggraphe_ens3.thumb.png.e623bfbdb45b58896c3afadd1e76a922.png

    I think most models have suggested high pressure will be close by but to our North and not much in the way of retrogression towards Greenland so an continental airflow is the most likely rather than a wintry weather pattern but of course that is far from being cut and dry as of yet. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    The EPS, to me, say we're going to be playing the longer game...which is fine because as GP hinted yesterday, a Greenland HP scenario was never really on the table anyway this side of early December.

    YEs i have to say i was happy but stunned how this has all just suddenly unfolded.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    EPS - whilst obviously still good for the time of year - dont look to be playing ball re- those riduculous runs.

    Scandi high anomaly looks never-ending should reap benefits eventually? Probably not in this month.

    09E58B0B-C71C-46AB-8888-737A23C148C0.thumb.png.c04af4447bcb7599747e4d54b71a60ed.png

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Scandi high anomaly looks never-ending should reap benefits eventually? Probably not in this month.

    09E58B0B-C71C-46AB-8888-737A23C148C0.thumb.png.c04af4447bcb7599747e4d54b71a60ed.png

    Thanks - does it stay like that until 360?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Are you going to change your forum name based on earlier events?

    No never I’m European not American ?? the gfs was good but as a chart “that ecm” will take some beating, I just wish it had made it to t plus zero. 

    Edited by That ECM
    • Like 8
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
    2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    No never I’m European not American ?? the gfs was good but as a chart “that ecm” will take some beating, I just wish it had made it to t plus zero. 

    I remember that run but can't remember what year it was?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Greetings of the new season to all “fellow net weather cold/snow nutters”  the gfs is sensational but seriously who would not have started the season with this from the ecm?  Many cold opportunities from there. We watch with interest, it’s good to be back?? 

    8993264C-E4ED-4177-9250-5819BB2CF6FC.png

    I tagged you earlier - Where were ya !!

     

    Anyway welcome back- eyes down for the pub run- expecting more of the same from the GFS - can we squeeze -8c from the first wave...

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    32 minutes ago, craigore said:

    Agree we are heading in the right direction but after an incredibly warm to very mild Autumn thus far it would take a near miracle for snowy Nivarna this side of Xmas..having said that small acorns.!

    Well the CET shows something different than 'warm to very mild this Autumn' - near normal in fact but must admit if you live in the south east most of October was short sleeved weather so must be off-set by a colder north!...I too a bit sceptical we'll see anything wintry in the coming weeks (maybe frosty) certainly down south but the bigger picture does look encouraging for this winter and that of not being one of experiencing continuous low pressure moving sw to ne and largely being trapped in Tm air masses a good deal of the time.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, tomjwlx said:

    I remember that run but can't remember what year it was?

    5th December 2012 - 12z.

    • Like 6
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    Ok guys lets keep our feet on the ground yes models are putting out excellent charts and it's fantastic to see such outputs this time of the year with the atlantic held back. in sted of watching every run of every out put why don't we all compare like for like as JH would say. 00z from the previous days to todays and same with 6z, 12z and 18z from gfs 00z and 12z from ukmo and ecmf.  also guys lets us not forget the 96-72hrs ecmf run from dec 2012 and how it all went tits up so lets keep it all friendly guys and good hunting. excellent gfs run this afternoon and not a bad ecmf ither.

    Edited by syed2878
    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
    10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Well the CET shows something different than 'warm to very mild this Autumn' - near normal in fact but must admit if you live in the south east most of October was short sleeved weather so must be off-set by a colder north!...I too a bit sceptical we'll see anything wintry in the coming weeks (maybe frosty) certainly down south but the bigger picture does look encouraging for this winter and that of not being one of experiencing continuous low pressure moving sw to ne and largely being trapped in Tm air masses a good deal of the time.

    Same.. i live in the S.E and yes its been truly barmy , probally why the southern N.Sea is still around 16c..

    Will needs weeks of below average temps to get that down.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    Charts look great in general.

    I can't help but think a Greenland high followed by a Scandinavian high would have been the better outcome so early in the season. Dig the cold in over Europe and then get the Easterly...

    Eyes down for the 18z....

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

    Couldn’t disagree more. We are building a foundation for a cold, snowy December not looking for Nivarna in 10 days. 

    More like Narnia?

    Some of these charts are getting a little ridiculous now, feels like we're staring down the barrel of the gun at something quite impressive!

    Will be interesting to see what GFS spits out soon...

    Edited by BlazeStorm
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    17 minutes ago, Pajcov said:

    Could anyone explain what the difference in the background signals are please.. thanks..

    0B3BCCFB-3D41-4595-861F-BC10F707DECF.png

    Not entirely sure, does he mean winter 09/10, or Dec 09 and Dec 10.  I would argue that the longer range drivers towards a front loaded cold winter were more like the run up to Dec 09, have said so on here much earlier in Autumn.  But the recent models is much more like the build up to Dec 10, so I'm not sure that helps, others may be able to add or correct me!! 

    Must admit looking forward to the GFS pub run!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    Evening All,,, Probably one of the coldest charts since 2010 , for November ...Let the Game Begin........?

    VAN27.png

    VAN27X.png

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    Not entirely sure, does he mean winter 09/10, or Dec 09 and Dec 10.  I would argue that the longer range drivers towards a front loaded cold winter were more like the run up to Dec 09, have said so on here much earlier in Autumn.  But the recent models is much more like the build up to Dec 10, so I'm not sure that helps, others may be able to add or correct me!! 

    Must admit looking forward to the GFS pub run!

    Looking forward to your icon update mate!hopefully we see an improvement up to 120 hours!!

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    At this stage we have the gfs op and gefs mean the most progressive towards deep cold. The ec op and gfsp less so. The highest resolution models not in such a hurry to get to where we want to be ...... just have to enjoy watching the data being munched in and spewed out every 12 hours ..........

    • Like 8
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Folks, it's 13th November - we are still more than 2 weeks away from winter proper.

    The extended eps (mean) is indicating a Sceuro high scenario with only weak lowish heights to the west - the clusters will reveal more shortly.  It looks largely blocked and cold for the foreseeable.  Very good set-up leading into winter.  

    Edited by mulzy
    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...