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Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Getting very interesting now.

Diagramme GEFS

Wouldnt surprise if ecm comes up with a beauty of a run this evening!!then again it could all go tits up😣

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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Wouldnt surprise if ecm comes up with a beauty of a run this evening!!then again it could all go tits up😣

Image result for sitting on the fence

 

image.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Wouldnt surprise if ecm comes up with a beauty of a run this evening!!then again it could all go tits up😣

its a bit early for ecm to show a 'beauty' within ten days but that little cold pool meandering towards se uk could crop up ……… the gefs are headed into a really interesting place for the last few days of November and into meteorological winter …..

@Glacier Point - stewart, do these developments fit in with your predictions for early winter ?  i get the feeling from your posts past couple weeks that they do ……..

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Tonight’s choice isn’t too bad . Faux cold or real cold ! 

The infamous faux cold debate , we have this every winter and for newer members at this time of year under high pressure we can develop colder conditions even when the upper air at first sight looks pretty mild .

High pressure centered over Scandi comes in a variety of what it delivers in terms of upper air profile .

So into the weekend and next week temps dropping looks like a good bet but the main uncertainty at the moment is where any upper cold pool goes . 

Its always the same story in these types of set ups , lots to be resolved there but Euro blocking is generally better modelled  by the ECM

 

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Quite a few GEFS attempting Greenie/Icelandic highs in FI.🏂

Screenshot_20181112-174530_Chrome.jpg

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Edited by booferking
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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Tonight’s choice isn’t too bad . Faux cold or real cold ! 

The infamous faux cold debate , we have this every winter and for newer members at this time of year under high pressure we can develop colder conditions even when the upper air at first sight looks pretty mild .

High pressure centered over Scandi comes in a variety of what it delivers in terms of upper air profile .

So into the weekend and next week temps dropping looks like a good bet but the main uncertainty at the moment is where any upper cold pool goes . 

Its always the same story in these types of set ups , lots to be resolved there but Euro blocking is generally better modelled  by the ECM

 

Im happy with any cold !! Faux cold late November can be amazing !! 

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im happy with any cold !! Faux cold late November can be amazing !! 

Faux cold. Oh dear

No such thing. Cold is cold is cold is cold. There is nothing false nor fake nor artificial about it. It's just close to surface cold not deep tropospheric cold.

The mean chart at 378 is interesting as it hints at a northerly flow

GFSAVGEU12_378_1.png

Edited by Weather-history
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3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Faux cold. Oh dear

No such thing. Cold is cold is cold is cold. There is nothing false nor fake nor artificial about it. It's just close to surface cold not deep tropospheric cold.

The mean chart at 378 is interesting as it hints at a northerly flow

 

Does it really matter that much to you that you have to pull someone up about it - oh dear.

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1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Faux cold. Oh dear

No such thing. Cold is cold is cold is cold. There is nothing false nor fake about it. It's just close to surface cold not deep tropospheric cold.

The mean chart at 378 is interesting as it hints at a northerly flow

GFSAVGEU12_378_1.png

Thanks for making that apparent, I was just thinking what the hell is faux cold.....I’d be happy with just -20 uppers 🤪

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3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Faux cold. Oh dear

No such thing. Cold is cold is cold is cold. There is nothing false nor fake nor artificial about it. It's just close to surface cold not deep tropospheric cold.

The mean chart at 378 is interesting as it hints at a northerly flow

GFSAVGEU12_378_1.png

Kev you sound like maggie thatcher!! Crime is crime is crime 😂

I hear you.. to be honest i was quoting Nick of the Sussex ..

Either way cold at the top middle or bottom suits me sir ..

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Does it really matter that much to you that you have to pull someone up about it - oh dear.

I should have been clearer, it was a general point rather than aimed at one specific person ie northwestsnow. 

 

Edited by Weather-history
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The issue with surface cold is that it doesn’t lead to snow ...which is what most on here want / crave. Might get frost or Rime or freezing rain.

of concern for me is the fact that the GFS op follows the control. Patience is the key with this pattern, unlikely we will see snow before December still 

Edited by Tim Bland

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Kev you sound like maggie thatcher!! Crime is crime is crime 😂

I hear you.. to be honest i was quoting Nick of the Sussex ..

Either way cold at the top middle or bottom suits me sir ..

I wasn't having a go at you, it was that ruddy term. I hate it! 🤣😫

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People expecting to see widespread snowfall on the charts are looking for the wrong thing really. It's November, it'll take something exceptional to get widespread snowfall. What is interesting here is the overall pattern and how it can lead to something more interesting further down the line, e.g into December. 

ECM.thumb.gif.6cb67530810ebf5e24641494a752ef22.gif

The Scandi high is acting as a roadblock to not only the Trop Vortex but also triggering wave breaking up into the Stratosphere to weaken/displace the Strat vortex and thus increase the chances of blocking and cold further down the line.

We're in a very good place at the moment, probably the best we've seen to start the season for many years. Widespread snowfall is the ultimate goal of course, but at this stage it's all about the building blocks. Get the pieces into position and then the cold and ultimately snow will follow.

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