Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Gloesea has flipped cold for winter, nice to see. 

Considering that model is a bigger mild ramper than Ian Brown it's surprising to see the switch!

The November ECM seasonal hasn't got as strong of a blocking signal as he previous 2 updates but it is still evident

DJF

JFM

FMA

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Yes, just hope the ECM op is one of the warmer members in its ensembles suite.

ECM ens the 00z op does appear to be on the warmer side of the mean

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, Leo97t said:

First ensembles showing ice days in London if I'm not wrong

I think you probably are .......not far away ...... 2 members on yesterday’s eps had a 1c max 25th

gefs similar although 2 members is 2.5 times the percentage on the eps!

Note that heading into a November blocked phase means surface conditions can bear little relationship to the uppers predicted 

Edited November 12, 2018 by bluearmy

[Met4Cast]

Better orientation on the 6z GFS compared with the ECM, uppers moving into Eastern parts as early as day 8.

Not cold enough for widespread snow of course, but it'll be very seasonal with some pretty hard frosts under those slack winds!

[Snowy L]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Gloesea has flipped cold for winter, nice to see. 

Great to see that huge low pressure anomaly over central Europe.

[carinthian]

25 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, as promised a bit of an update from over here. Short term, rock solid with UKMO at 144t. Mildest day still looks like Thursday .Stunning over here at the moment with mild sunny days unless you are stuck under the temperature inversion in the valley. Deterministic Forecasts for the medium long term have advanced the high pressure cell centre to be between Northern Britain and Southern Scandinavia for the early part of next week. The single model still showing strong retrogressive features towards the end of the month with a probability forecast of 50/60 % ( not sure what MOGREPS ) medium range showing but suspect something similar based on their earlier outputs. Sometimes, a slow burner as in this case advances changes at bit quicker than being shown 3  days or so ago and the situation becomes more fluid. Still height falls over Europe after day 10 with a backing of the wind flow still showing up with increasing chance of Polar Continental airmass getting into parts of Europe and even a outside chance of a quicker route to cold over the British Isles with Arctic Maritime flow possible. However, we are sometime away yet but the encouraging features maintaining a  split jet will help to a colder scenario. Also nice to see fairly solid agreement in the main models.

C

Hi there again, the above talks about the forecast in the medium term to become a bit more fluid due to pressure falls over Europe, funny enough we have just been given our first snowfall forecast . Next Monday night , moderate snowfall projected with temp falling to -12c by Tuesday morning. That's a start !

C

Edited November 12, 2018 by carinthian

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Considering that model is a bigger mild ramper than Ian Brown it's surprising to see the switch!

The November ECM seasonal hasn't got as strong of a blocking signal as he previous 2 updates but it is still evident

DJF

JFM

FMA

Three month anomalys aren’t too informative - the only definitive message from that is the Aleutian low !!

Edited November 12, 2018 by bluearmy

[ICE COLD]

Cold uppers creeping in at T192 on the GFS 6z . 

[weirpig]

People will certainly feel the difference  around this time next week  off a continental flow  will feel very seasonal   -4  uppers  could well bring wintry showers 

Edited November 12, 2018 by weirpig

[andymusic]

Beautiful looking high on the 06z GFS and in about a weeks time winter starts to bite!

[Derecho]

Thought I'd highlight the crucial point in determining what happens in the next 10 days as the differences between the GFS 00z AND 06z show it nicely. If we want retrogression to Greenland quickly we need to get rid of the low pressure just to the south.

On the 00z at T132:

 Low pressure systems move north and south so the Scandi high can fill the gap

On the 06z...

 The low pressure system highlighted meanders around Greenland leaving the high stuck over Scandi

 

This leaves us with...

 A somewhat chilly easterly flow but retrogression to Greenland in the middle time range is harder to achieve.

Still a chilly run though, decent little effort

Edited November 12, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Methuselah]

Not my favourite type of weather, by a long chalk: dreich, cold and breezy but with a chance of snowfall well from eastern coasts?

That aside, a step in the right direction...It's only November!

[Chesil View]

With this gradual change to something more seasonal/wintry and possible retrogression beng quite a slow burner. I,m reminded of an old piece of Dorset weather lore.  

Quick to come, Quick to pass 

Long foretold, long to last 

[Met4Cast]

As Quicksilver1989 Highlighted the low to the South of Greenland is a potential problem going forward in terms of retrogressing the high and getting some proper cold in across the UK. 

The first shortwave of the season to cause some potential drama, it'd be nice to see the low disrupt and go underneath the block to aid retrogression but that's a feature that'll need watching in the coming days, I don't expect models to resolve that energy until closer to the time.

[mb018538]

The air could well be cold enough for a smidgen of wintry ppn...



Probably still too early in the season for this to really be anything other than a chilly day with maxes around 5/6c at lower levels. Probably a dry airmass too as usual from the east.

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The air could well be cold enough for a smidgen of wintry ppn...



Probably still too early in the season for this to really be anything other than a chilly day with maxes around 5/6c at lower levels. Probably a dry airmass too as usual from the east.

25 years to the day of that chart

[Methuselah]

That's some mighty cold air poised to engulf parts of NW Europe!

Not sure where this's going...La La Land special?+

Edited November 12, 2018 by Ed Stone

[weirpig]

Gfs Control  along the same route  but ups the anti on the uppers  -8 inparts of the south east 

[Methuselah]

'Ello, 'ello. What do you think of that GFS run then? My brain hurts!

Edited November 12, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Dennis]

Its a good winterly start....the change to a real cold phase is later in november after 25th i monitor ....a greenie should be soon at the run....

 

[Met4Cast]

The ECM weekly forecasts are quite interesting viewing.

They show a rather strong signal for blocking over Scandinavia out to day 18, the 18-25 day forecast then shows a high pressure anomaly out in the Atlantic towards Southern Greenland, though as you'd expect the signal is much weaker at that range.

(I should note, this run is from the 8th November, I'm only just got access to them)

Edited November 12, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

The ECM weekly forecasts are quite interesting viewing.

They show a rather strong signal for blocking over Scandinavia out to day 18, the 18-25 day forecast then shows a high pressure anomaly out in the Atlantic towards Southern Greenland, though as you'd expect the signal is much weaker at that range.

There's another one out tonight at around 7 minutes past 10 - a very interesting one IMO.

[feb1991blizzard]

Staggering GEFS suite - only been through about 9 random members but forget the mean - that looks worse than the 0z - look at the individial members - hello potent cold spell

[shaky]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Staggering GEFS suite - only been through about 9 random members but forget the mean - that looks worse than the 0z - look at the individial members - hello potent cold spell

Are there any beasterlys in there from the initial blast from the east around the 20th!!

[Dennis]

Teleconnections yesterday shows a neg.trend on the NAO