Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Superb outlook now - Scandi High - chance of snow, then retrograde to iceland with a reload from the NE - 

Finally ECM churning out the kind of charts that the UKMO would have done if it had run past 144-

Cant really see how anyone can be critical this morning when we normally are ramping up the zonal westerlies now!

Morning steve, yes slayer was on the money in the 96-144 timeframe when the others wanted to sink the high back into Europe.(GEM aside).

As i posted above, it looks a ruddy good 144 chart this morning..

All to play for, although i'm not as confident as your goodself about the reload from the NE part!!

Edited November 18, 2018 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

In the short term you still think chance of snow across the east and south east from the easterly?!ecm shows -6 and -7 uppers as the ber minimum!!ukmo around same i think!

Think altitude will be playing a part next week mate..

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

In the short term you still think chance of snow across the east and south east from the easterly?!ecm shows -6 and -7 uppers as the ber minimum!!ukmo around same i think!

Yes deffo a few flakes but up over the hills - 150/200 M

[geordiekev]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Superb outlook now - Scandi High - chance of snow, then retrograde to iceland with a reload from the NE - 

Finally ECM churning out the kind of charts that the UKMO would have done if it had run past 144-

Cant really see how anyone can be critical this morning when we normally are ramping up the zonal westerlies now!

It's weird but this is the 3rd consecutive year of no raging westerlies, I think we get so used to a type of autumn to expect that we call it the norm, those that cite a return to the Atlantic have to go back a long way for their statements to hold credence whatsoever.

I'm confident that the northern pattern again shows so much potential and again this year the starting pattern is favourable for us coldies, with the limpet Greenland lows nowhere on the horizon,  which is a big plus for 17/18.

[nick sussex]

Still the ECM teases this morning ! It’s similar to last night . Bank of cold to the ne with the UK at the boundary between that and some milder conditions to the sw .

I think we’d need to see more trough disruption , you really need to maintain low pressure to the south to stop a nose of high pressure pushing ne . The ECM just about manages that but it’s a close run thing .

I wouldn’t bank on anything at this stage because of the fine margins . There’s a case for several outcomes one of which includes some decent snow fall . Equally it might turn into a damp squib .

A bit more energy heading se to feed low heights over France and Italy is what you want to see and a more elongated low pressure to the west sw signifying that better trough disruption .

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Still the ECM teases this morning ! It’s similar to last night . Bank of cold to the ne with the UK at the boundary between that and some milder conditions to the sw .

I think we’d need to see more trough disruption , you really need to maintain low pressure to the south to stop a nose of high pressure pushing ne . The ECM just about manages that but it’s a close run thing .

I wouldn’t bank on anything at this stage because of the fine margins . There’s a case for several outcomes one of which includes some decent snow fall . Equally it might turn into a damp squib .

A bit more energy heading se to feed low heights over France and Italy is what you want to see and a more elongated low pressure to the west sw signifying that better trough disruption .

Have you compared ukmo / ec/gfs 144 Nick?

I'd suggest ukmo looks better..

[bluearmy]

Better start to the day than 24 hours ago ......

the likely stand off between the ridge and the developing Atlantic trough is impossible to call this far away ....... the models just won’t handle it well enough ......if the Atlantic trough is less developed then so is the euro ridge ahead of it and the trough extension slides under the ridge ...... that would be the hope anyway .......

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

There does seem a possible chance of wintry weather this week. Not the best charts to use, but the 00Z GFS UK Precipitation Type charts going for a wintry mix over Southern and South-Western areas of the U.K. later on Tuesday and into Wednesday this week. Though some wintry showers possible towards the East and North, too.

Fairly reasonable bite to the Easterly and South-Easterly winds on both those days, with areas of -5 and slightly colder 850 hPa temperatures in places. 

Likely though mostly for higher parts still, with it looking marginal (and the fact some places may not get the -5*C (or slightly colder) 850 hPa temperatures). A chance of one or two little surprises with a few snow shields getting dented. 

[Chris.R]

 Surely with this being a continental  flow then  The most important things to look at for snow are DPs and boundary layer temps. That’s what my experience tort me last year anyway. 

[Summer Sun]

A slight recovery in temps does look fairly certain now towards the end of the week but it might not last long with the 00z ECM mean now signalling another drop from around the 25th or 26th

The 00z GFS mean doesn't seem as cold this morning as it was last night

18z

00z

 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Snowyowl9]

Always nice to see a low moving from east to west how many times has that happened in recent year losing count.

Interesting week ahead for hills more especially further west.

[Methuselah]

I'm liking the current high entropy; not because I can make better forecasts at times like these (I can't!) but because there's a greater chance of an out-of-the-ordinary weather-pattern setting up, I think...Wasn't 'Shannon Entropy' the talk-of-the-town when the models were faffing about, during late 2012?

IMO, the greater the degree of entropy, the greater the scope for hope?

[Lauren]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Can’t post a bit light hearted humour when it’s quiet on here without it being deleted. Absolute joke. Fed up with my comments being deleted. Even had one deleted for praising the contribution of some of the most knowledgeable posters.

I'd like to publicly address this actually.

As mods in threads such as this its very difficult to get a balance. I personally, have no issue with humour or quick one liner observations,  others feel it should be strictly model discussion. There are plans to have a more bantery thread for jokes and less scientific observation so that both needs are fulfilled so to speak.

And yes, I appreciate the hypocrisy of my post.

 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Lauren

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, Lauren said:

I'd like to publicly address this actually.

As mods in threads such as this its very difficult to get a balance. I personally, have no issue with humour or quick one liner observations,  others feel it should be strictly model discussion. There are plans to have a more bantery thread for jokes and less scientific observation so that both needs are fulfilled so to speak.

  

As someone who posts in here seasonally, I didn't realise the moans, ramps and banter thread had disappeared and was about to direct above poster there. Shame to see that thread go...

 

[Always a red]

1 minute ago, Lauren said:

I'd like to publicly address this actually.

As mods in threads such as this its very difficult to get a balance. I personally, have no issue with humour or quick one liner observations,  others feel it should be strictly model discussion. There are plans to have a more bantery thread for jokes and less scientific observation so that both needs are fulfilled so to speak.

 

Great stuff, thought the banter thread worked really well previously giving people a place to let off steam amongst other things etc. Hopefully people who have an obvious hate of anything cold and enjoy highlighting all things mild can now be encouraged to use it instead of the `hunt for cold` thread

[Lauren]

3 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

As someone who posts in here seasonally, I didn't realise the moans, ramps and banter thread had disappeared and was about to direct above poster there. Shame to see that thread go...

 

 

2 minutes ago, Always a red said:

Great stuff, thought the banter thread worked really well previously giving people a place to let off steam amongst other things etc. Hopefully people who have an obvious hate of anything cold and enjoy highlighting all things mild can now be encouraged to use it instead of the `hunt for cold` thread

Watch this space for it's return.

[summer blizzard]

Although the models do handle the longer term pattern a little differently (Euro and GFS better than GEM for cold) the one thing they do agree on is that at day 10 we have a front approaching the south west and cold air embedding over the UK.

[Froze were the Days]

Both ecm and gfs 0z don't look great near day 10...If that was to happen I think you can say goodbye to the heights to the north.

[Methuselah]

Looks like we could get a better chance of some sub-5C uppers coming around the Icelandic HP, and attacking the UK, from the east?

Edited November 18, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Met4Cast]

28 minutes ago, Lauren said:

I'd like to publicly address this actually.

As mods in threads such as this its very difficult to get a balance. I personally, have no issue with humour or quick one liner observations,  others feel it should be strictly model discussion. There are plans to have a more bantery thread for jokes and less scientific observation so that both needs are fulfilled so to speak.

And yes, I appreciate the hypocrisy of my post.

 

A separate thread for banter doesn’t really work on my opinion, “banter” in here is largely off the cuff & in reaction to what someone else has said, having to go to a different thread to throw in a quick funny one liner would kill the vibe a little. 

Anyway, models!

Don’t be concerned with that the models are showing beyond day 5/6 because until the Pacific jet is resolved & until the low on our side of the world is resolved, anything past that may as well not exist, if the models can’t resolve 96-120hrs how do you expect them to have day 10 right?

[Leon1]

I think we should be getting some turn arounds back to cold today from the model guys. How can they predict what they can now (boring average weather) 10 days out, but they can't predict a cold spell 10 days out. It's pretty much guarenteed to change, maybe not to what we want but it's not going to be 100% perfect at T+240, in fact, it will be far from perfect.

[swfc]

That's a pretty impressive nhp at the 160hr mark however it pans out.the PV is in bits and for November has to be good

[SMU]

GFS 06z another step in the right direction-

colder uppers from the East @180.. -6c more widespread & pattern more amplified- Nice cross polar flow all the way from 144 ..

 

[Derecho]

So upstream things have helped inflate the Greenland block a bit and shunted the pattern further west. Rather then the high falling to our east it is now falling over us.

So we have a couple of days underneath a cold high.

However a signal is emerging for pressure to rise over Spain and if that does occur it will make it difficult for the cold air to our east to make its way to us. A nice NH view doesn't mean anything if the cold air is falling in the wrong places.

Ideally we would want to see some major trough disruption to the low out west, make its way across us and then leave cold air behind from the North. Big ask when pressure over Spain is rising.

[northwestsnow]

That low is a real pain in the wotsits!!!