Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Allseasons-Si]

51 minutes ago, Pajcov said:

Sorry for my lack of knowledge but can anyone explain what this means.. cheers..

This is good news

on to the gfs and the the pattern has backtracked further west,-6's coming in off the north sea at 180

watch you don't get frost bite

cpc still good too.

 

 

[danthetan]

26 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I would think that being so deep into the season that this anomaly is suggested, it will be strat initiated in some form or another. 

The the d-j-f MSLP anomaly was skewed by a - ve NAO later in January and February apparently. quote ian fergusson.

[MattStoke]

Northerly incoming at 228 hours. A la MO updated outlook.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Northerly incoming at 228 hours. A la MO updated outlook.

No.. that low is a real pain and wont allow for retrogression ..

[Geordiesnow]

I think keeping to the basics of what the models are trending at the moment we can see that the UK will be on the colder side of the jet so certainly no significantly mild weather on the horizon, we got heights around Iceland, we got an Arctic high forecast(although most runs suggest this won't directly be an influence as of yet), we got some colder air trying to drop down into Scandinavia and now we are seeing more support for the PV over Canada to be replaced by WAA. I think all things considered, the outlook has potential but as we know, this does not gurantee a set up with cold and snow but it should keep us on our toes at least. 

Weatherwise, next week won't be all that great, hopefully Tuesday will be that convective sunshine and shower day but at times the rest of the week look cold, windy and wet. That said, some areas may see some patchy frost and mist and fog could be a possibility after any rainfall and if skies clear at night?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

No.. that low is a real pain and wont allow for retrogression ..

It's a cold HP though. Frost lingering all day under that.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

It's a cold HP though. Frost lingering all day under that.

That low should clear through at the back end but pretty pointless by so late in the run ..... agreed that high is cold ....the eps control had similar feature 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, bluearmy said:

That low should clear through at the back end but pretty pointless by so late in the run ..... agreed that high is cold ....the eps control had similar feature 

Yeah, a shame, as a nice Arctic HP shows its hand late on

[lorenzo]

Eric Webb view on tropical developments...

Love the way this chart has been plotted esp. with the anomalies presented across the MJO phases - the phases of Nino you can map in the Pacific Basin or readily google. Top tip would be to save this as it helps mind map stuff, esp when comparing to the MJO phase plots. These analogs are also helpful http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Re Ventrice post and AAM - bit of an immediate question - his post suggests the uplift in AAM is genuine vs GFS bias, and the likelihood is the WSI material is for clients only. What we do know from this model from the original source material is that we have seen an uplift into the more elevated phases of the GWO.

@Catacol @Tamara @Glacier Point have much stronger expertise in dissecting the route ahead of this phase change, however note since late October, the atmosphere has moved to a new base state with higher AAM, 

Couple of composites with a few variables considering this move.. details in the subheader of variables used, tried to capture the AAM budget increase, the solar regime and the 10hPa strat regime being westerly. This for now, then if all things remained equal rolled forward, doesn't scream zonal to me.

Interesting times this winter - QBO particularly is 'live' as it moves down thru the atmosphere, Ventrice has also hinted at this is 'no normal Nino'. SM forecast thread which I just caught up with has proven prescient wrt Sea Ice.. Personally I think Solar and the EP particle rules the roost, this science however is 'out there' and it will take us a couple of decades to get it resolved. The QBO blip a case and point.

Meanwhile we have great tools like Zacs new site on the strat to help us merge our view between Strat and NWP to have more educated guesses at the evolutions and it is pleasing to see the GFS Para performing well, for many years ECM has been Fifa to GFS being PES.. time for some RDR Redemption...

 

Right now, this is the area I am keen on watching following the CWB that aids the Scandi Block - the action around the top of this is very finely balanced...

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by lorenzo

[GeordieX9v]

GFS is on the drink at 300.

[Allseasons-Si]

WHOAH!!!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

The other way as i've said before is for the Atlantic low to Phase with the scandi troughing and open the door from the North, thats how we could avoid the Atlantic trough spoiling things, still goes wrong and a low too deep and round ensues after this phasing on the 18z but it is possible to have a more favourable outcome from this scenario.

[booferking]

Hurricane force winds blizzard conditions 

[Methuselah]

That low's a bloody windup!

[MattStoke]

The GFS just killed us all!

Some bitter cold on the backside of that low too, coming in from the north west.

[Tim Bland]

Now we are talking.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'd take the first failure to get to this from an IMBY perspective

[Mucka]

I still think GFS is wrong day 7+ but hey.

Here is the GFSp

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

WHOAH!!!

 

Another route....what a bomb and ridiculous winter conditions digging in behind.  

 

BFTP

[Allseasons-Si]

I really want this to verify to blow the rest of the leaves off the trees to make it look more seasonal

[shaky]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

I really want this to verify to blow the rest of the leaves off the trees to make it look more seasonal

I was thinking the exact same thing a few days ago!!want these leaves gone before we get any snowfall!!looks so much better on the trees without leaves!!what a good evening its been from a coldie perspective!!upgrades all round and hopefully tomorrow morning should bring more!!

[Methuselah]

And on that, cold and wintry, note...Good night.

[feb1991blizzard]

Northerly does ensue, this IMO would be the way to clean the atlantic up, even if this attempt had too high uppers and too much mixing out of cold and mild sectors were a problem, look at the bout of WAA into Greenland - sustainable pattern.

All pie in the sky stuff of course but nothing to stop that ridge completely ripping the PV clean through for a cross polar flow now and no spoilers to stop the Arctic air flooding south.

Edited November 17, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Mapantz]

Doesn't the GFS have these occasions of throwing out a huge dartboard-low when it's trying to resolve the idea of something colder?

[Geordiesnow]

The deep low from my point of view would be interesting and would not mind it occuring even if it did meant of course the Atlantic returning. All that said though, I don't think the output is too bad on a cold weather point of view, its more we want too see the models show more colder solutions for the UK via a Northerly, that may happen, it may not but at least it will keep us on our toes.