Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Trying to figure out what this means.. 

 

9 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Trying to figure out what this means.. 

Really!!??..

Iv'e been quoting the eyeing of the mid atlantic/partial azores ridge for some time now!!..

And as stated-^^..the warm air advection forming as we gain in the above mentioned(azores waa)..

Will be imo the turning point of gain of heights...and ultimately, the draw of cold..(real cold incursion)..into our maritime island...

Sorry if i was a tad miss-understood previous!

Waving on the upper levels is being played out to a-non decipher...but obviously...the divergence is noting that!!!

Edited November 17, 2018 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

EC mean is a little difficult to work out

Support for the Griceland high but also support for heights to fall into Europe too so as suspected I think the clusters are going to be far more helpful here

Is that the 12z? early if it is, and what target date is it please?

[Seasonality]

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

....the AZORES/MID AT -RIDGE IS THE FLAG POINT I RECKON STEVE...

MOMENTUM AND SYNOPTICS ARE CERTAINLY OF SUGGEST!...

First sentence makes sense. Second I have no idea. With utmost respect, why is it that your posts tend to disintegrate into cryptic code? Is there anything we can do to help? You clearly know your stuff so it'd be great if more people could share your thoughts. 

[summer blizzard]

Euro at day 10 is not half bad with a likely snow event for the south from the first trough. 

The second trough is the interesting one in the sense that if it is slow enough it should amplify the flow and encourage the northerly to keep pouring cold air south. If it is fast then it will likely phase into a stronger low with the first one and push the Atlantic through potentially via quite a west based -NAO. 

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

 

Really!!??..

Iv'e been quoting the eyeing of the mid atlantic/partial azores ridge for some time now!!..

And as stated-^^..the warm air advection forming as we gain in the above mentioned(azores waa)..

 Will be imo the turning point of gain of heights...and ultimately, the draw of cold..(real cols incursion)..into our maritime island...

Sorry if i was a tad miss-understood previous!

Ah okay yes that clears things up nicely.. 

Day 7 mean perhaps a little better for the Griceland high.

Some winters we'd have shot ourselves in the foot for a mean like that!

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is that the 12z? early if it is, and what target date is it please?

12z yes - That was day 5

[Met4Cast]

I think we're going to see a jump in the % of ensembles going for the colder solution. Pretty strong support for Griceland/Greenland blocking and low pressure to the South of the UK by day 8.

Step towards the GFS(P).

[WalsallWeather123]

Not seen it posted yet. But NAVGEM looks similar to ECM with the rebuilding of heights towards greenland enabling us to tap into he cold pool in the NE around day 9/10

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I think we're going to see a jump in the % of ensembles going for the colder solution. Pretty strong support for Griceland/Greenland blocking and low pressure to the South of the UK by day 8.

Step towards the GFS(P).

Bet we aren’t .......

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Bet we aren’t .......

I’ll second that. Looks more like a damp squib this time around to me.

[nick sussex]

ECM what a tease !

One of those set ups that could deliver some snow equally if the block edges too far west it could be a damp squib .

It’s very finely poised but should keep the thread busy!

 

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Bet we aren’t .......

Ha! Yeah.. day 9+ seems to have gone a little awol, pretty big LP signal to the South-West there..

[bluearmy]

whilst there is still plenty of time for things to change, the eps now clearly sees a failure of Euro low heights in the 7/10 day period ..... infact we see what were low anomalys a few days ago replaced by high ones

[Daniel*]

I don’t like EPS a signal for west based -NAO beginning to gain ground. Which would leave us at the mercy of Atlantic not remotely cold either. 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Bet we aren’t .......

We definitely aren't judging by the downgrade on the D10 ensemble mean.

[Mucka]

52 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only thing is though Steve, these Atlantic troughs just keep coming and we are almost back to square one at 240 - yes an improvement as we have cold into Northern UK but it will be thwarted on its way south, we are now needing yet another bout of WAA into Greenland to buy us time to shift the next troughs on the conveyor belt to our West.

You can't get the WAA/Atlantic ridge toward Greenland without a trough 

It is all about angular momentum and the jet is forecast to stay well South so no reason why that low West of Ireland doesn't slide SE through day 11/12 keeping us on the cold side while an Atlantic ridge builds behind.

All a bit academic at the moment but there is nothing in that chart that suggest a zonal flow to me.

Edited November 17, 2018 by Mucka

[Mike Poole]

This is making my head hurt. Can we all come back here to discuss in two weeks time ?

Edited November 17, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mucka said:

You can't get the WAA/Atlantic ridge toward Greenland without a trough 

It is all about angular momentum and the jet is forecast to stay well South so no reason why that low doesn't slide SE through day 11/122 keeping us on the cold side while an Atlantic ridge builds behind.

All a bit academic at the moment but there is nothing in that chart that suggest a zonal flow to me.

Yes, it needs to be a slow moving trough much further North though exiting the Eastern USA / canada, that trough in the atlantic is in no mans land, it needs to dive SE and quickly or to phase with or not have been ejected in the first place from any aformentioned troughing.

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

whilst there is still plenty of time for things to change, the eps now clearly sees a failure of Euro low heights in the 7/10 day period ..... infact we see what were low anomalys a few days ago replaced by high ones

Only way that happens is for the high to sink SE a la GFS and the jet to go over the top. 

I would say the signal for that has waned somewhat in the hi res output but could go either way.

[blizzard81]

The low to our south west (two lows by 168hrs) only serve to raise pressure over southern/central Europe. The opposite of what we need for true cold to arrive from the north east. What happens towards Iceland is totally academic if pressure remains high over Europe. Looks like the 12z ecm suite have moved even more towards this solution unfortunately. 

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We definitely aren't judging by the downgrade on the D10 ensemble mean.

Who cares? The high res det was hopelessly wrong at 144 this morning...

Edited November 17, 2018 by northwestsnow

[summer blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Only way that happens is for the high to sink SE a la GFS and the jet to go over the top. 

I would say the signal for that has waned somewhat in the hi res output but could go either way.

Looking at the northern hemisphere charts the key difference starts at day 7. 

The Euro has a surface low off the SE US develop and follow our low slow enough that it looks like the flow is amplifying. 

The GFS never has that low and does not as a result have any amplification until a few days later after a cut-off upper trough drops out of Canada. 

This essentially for the 12z means that the Atlantic somewhat wins on the GFS while the Euro stands a decent chance of giving us a more deep layer northerly and something sustained rather than the north westerly of the GFS.

[lassie23]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This is making my head hurt. Can we all come back here in two weeks time ?

Probably still won't be any the wiser lol

[northwestsnow]

Seems to be a lot of jumping off a cliff type posts about EC eps/means etc this evening...

 UKMO is leading the way here and it barely gets a look in.

Not a criticism guys .. its great debate and all..

 

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by northwestsnow

[CanadaAl]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Seems to be a lot of jumping off a cliff type posts about EC eps/means etc this evening...

Seems to me UKMO is leading the way here and it barely gets a look in.

Not a criticism guys .. its great debate and all..

 

 

They don't call it the "MAD" thread for nothing... Slight downgrades depending how you look at it but with this much uncertainty only 5 days out, it could still go either way