Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[SMU]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

One big problem though is that trough thats anchored to our SW, if that just stays in situ, nothing good will come of the run.

I posted about this earlier - once the energy splits over greenland & moves SE across the atlantic that trough will get shunted back east -

& there she is - A full climb down to the UKMO / FV3 by the ECM

Notice the trough kicked east vvvvv back to the North sea....

@Walsall Wood Snow @blizzard81

Edited November 17, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Cheshire Freeze]

All things considered, a very decent run

So so knife edge between 120-144 hrs though

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm guessing that the FV3 is the GFS parallel?

Haven't heard any mention of the Arpege so far, this year, either. Has it been binned, or aren't we yet quite that desperate?

ARPEGE is a short range model, quite a good one,  no one would mention it on here until snow was in range, FV3 is a major upgrade to GFS that will go live in 2019, I suspect you know that already!

[bluearmy]

As I said earlier, whilst we don’t need that ne  eps cluster to grow yet, we did need the op to jump across to it tonight or tomorrow ..... and hey presto ......

Edited November 17, 2018 by bluearmy

[Ice Day]

Whilst there's no wild excitement from the models over the last couple of days, I'm still extremely happy with how things are panning out.  The NH profile carries on looking conducive to producing some wintery goods at the end of November/beginning of December.  The other thing I've noticed is the major chunk of PV is continually being modelled to sit to our NE rather than over Canada/Greenland.  Hopefully, this is a constant over the next few days.

Onto the ECM, at 216 there's more than a little interest with a northerly assault on the cards. 

 

Looking absolutely great to me still with a couple of weeks to go until winter proper begins.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240 on board now, cold stuff shoved east, for us to tap on to, very happy with this:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

love this setup, deepest FI though, heights strong enough though oop norf?

[Day 10]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ARPEGE is a short range model, quite a good one,  no one would mention it on here until snow was in range, FV3 is a major upgrade to GFS that will go live in 2019, I suspect you know that already!

Short range AKA The Snow Range Model

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I posted about this earlier - once the energy splits over greenland & moves SE across the atlantic that trough will get shunted back east -

 

& there she is - A full climb down to the UKMO / FV3 by the ECM

Notice the trough kicked east vvvvv back to the North sea....

@Walsall Wood Snow

 

Only thing is though Steve, these Atlantic troughs just keep coming and we are almost back to square one at 240 - yes an improvement as we have cold into Northern UK but it will be thwarted on its way south, we are now needing yet another bout of WAA into Greenland to buy us time to shift the next troughs on the conveyor belt to our West.

[Ice Day]

A little pointless looking at small detail this far out, but just for fun, if the low to the west of Ireland went under, then we'd really be in for some fun times? Lots of cold air to tap into to our northeast.

   

Edited November 17, 2018 by Ice Day

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

love this setup, deepest FI though, heights strong enough though oop norf?

At day 10 it's hard to see how that pattern sustains long enough for us to advect the coldest uppers as the heights dissolve away under pressure from the encroaching trop PV to the N BUT it's day 10 and we will see further changes before then (for better and for worse). There would be the risk of a snow event for central and northern parts as that LP to the SW pushes its precipitation N on that day 10 chart.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only thing is though Steve, these Atlantic troughs just keep coming and we are almost back to square one at 240 - yes an improvement as we have cold into Northern UK but it will be thwarted on its way south, we are now needing yet another bout of WAA into Greenland to buy us time to shift the next troughs on the conveyor belt to our West.

Great minds think alike Feb! (see my post above)

[Man With Beard]

18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm guessing that the FV3 is the GFS parallel?

Haven't heard any mention of the Arpege so far, this year, either. Has it been binned, or aren't we yet quite that desperate?

ARPEGE is only really for T72 and less. It may be called upon later this week for the will it /won't it snow debate! 

Very, very good ECM for the longer term but I'm not sure it resolves anything for now, there's clearly a spread in the solutions - encouraging that the GFSP has on the whole stuck with the NW block all day though. 

[Chris.R]

Sorry to ask what is probably a stupid question: Are the FV3 model and GFS (p)  The same thing or are they 2 different things? Just catching up. 

Edit I see someone has already asked this. Thanks @Day 10

Edited November 17, 2018 by Chris.R

[The PIT]

Wheres the bag of grit I mentioned earlier. Great ECM wish it was T96

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Great minds think alike Feb! (see my post above)

Only positive i can see though is they are shifting a bit quicker by 240, we'd be fine if it was a regulation scandi /  scriceland high as an undercut would intuitively ensue  but this is more complex as we keep relying on slow moving troughs near Canada and western Greenland, the moment they start shifting fast its game over.

[Wilxy]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Sorry to ask what is probably a stupid question: Are the FV3 model and GFS (p)  The same thing or are they 2 different things? Just catching up. 

Edit I see someone has already asked this. Thanks @Day 10

same thing

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Sorry to ask what is probably a stupid question: Are the FV3 model and GFS (p)  The same thing or are they 2 different things? Just catching up. 

Yes they are the same thing, the GFS is about to undergo a major upgrade with it's core model completely replaced with a model called the FV3 (finite-volume-cubed), that's the model that is called the parallel on Meteociel  etc.

Edited November 17, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Met4Cast]

Just trying to figure out where we go from here..

Yup, none the wiser. Good to see the ECM showing a cold solution for the first time in days, we'll have to see what the mean but more importantly the clusters show, if the clusters for the cold solution have grown in size then maybe, perhaps we can begin to be a little more optimistic.

The GEFS mean certainly not as convincing as a couple of days ago

But given they're all over the shop, I'm not entirely sure it matters anyway.

[northwestsnow]

The slayer is king again !!

Yup the other models have moved to the ukmo this evening.

Message ends..

Ps i really wouldnt be worrying about EC 240 charts it had it wrong at 120!!

Edited November 17, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Chris.R]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes they are the same thing, the GFS is about to undergo a major upgrade with it's core model completely replaced with a model called the FV3 (finite-element-cubed), that's the model that is called the parallel on Meteociel  etc.

 

Thanks Mike

[SMU]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only thing is though Steve, these Atlantic troughs just keep coming and we are almost back to square one at 240 - yes an improvement as we have cold into Northern UK but it will be thwarted on its way south, we are now needing yet another bout of WAA into Greenland to buy us time to shift the next troughs on the conveyor belt to our West.

Well the low would slide east but further bouts of WAA are expected out if the azores..

Edited November 17, 2018 by Steve Murr

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Well the low would slide east but further bouts of WAA are expected out if the azores..

....the AZORES/MID AT -RIDGE IS THE FLAG POINT I RECKON STEVE...

MOMENTUM AND SYNOPTICS ARE CERTAINLY OF SUGGEST!...

Edited November 17, 2018 by tight isobar

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

....the AZORES-MID AT RIDGE IS THE FLAG POINT I RECKON STEVE...

 MOMENTUM AND SYNOPTICS SRE CERTAINLY OF SUGGEST!...

Trying to figure out what this means.. 

[Met4Cast]

EC mean is a little difficult to work out

Support for the Griceland high but also support for heights to fall into Europe too so as suspected I think the clusters are going to be far more helpful here