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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Do we have any verification stats on the GFS(p) yet?

Yes - it’s better than gfs 

Last time someone posted day 8 it was just outperforming everything but at hat range nothing is too accurate 

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Popular Post
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Do we have any verification stats on the GFS(p) yet?

My own customised verification stats show it is record breakingly accurate at present

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E17boy Seasoned

E17boy

Posted
Posted

Sorry people forgot to highlight one thing on the subject of models. If we cast out minds back to the March beast from the east the others models had backed away, then we saw ECM come on board showing the very low uppers and then the other models followed on.

Will the ECM tell us the real truth this time. Come on ECM show us something to lift our heads. 

We have not even started proper meteorological winter yet so this kind of situation at the moment is a bonus. Let's just hope it is the leading path to Snowlland. ECM will shortly roll out 

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted (edited)

So where are we after all the model excitement this past five days.

Well remembering  that any thing past 144 is always open to question. I,d say we,re in a pretty good place. 

We are not staring down the barrel of unbridled zonality even the most mobile of the extended output shows very slack movement and very weak and convoluted jet.

Let's face it if I,d offered anyone on here an Iceland high going into the backend of November all of you would have pulled my arm off.

The super-duper gfs cold charts have never been within the 144 range and the golden rule is that until they are then it's pure conjecture on the part of any model even the ECM.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

ECM still going for a cold start to next week then slightly less cold air by the end

ECMOPEU12_72_2.thumb.png.595e96985aa91749fec863ee06344f37.pngECMOPEU12_96_2.thumb.png.37f6c7e2fbabf3e00d575efc2418bc17.png

ECMOPEU12_120_2.thumb.png.0ee1531ebdc3805b1b5dc6454dd679a4.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.472b39d03d8b302caee0d743e608980e.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Y

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM t144, looks like we naive lift off

image.thumb.jpg.59dc17f7341c87a581d97bfb1a690d12.jpg

 

Yes, looks good to me, looks like the trough is going to drop into Europe but nearer to us than on some output.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

One big problem though is that trough thats anchored to our SW, if that just stays in situ, nothing good will come of the run.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

One big problem though is that trough thats anchored to our SW, if that just stays in situ, nothing good will come of the run.

The issue is twofold. Firstly, even though there are residual heights left towards Greenland (owing to a ridge thrown up in the Atlantic) the main bulk of heights slip SE. This stops any pressure falls across SE Europe, and so no encouragement for that LP to the SW to head back ESE as an absorbed feature within the Atlantic troughing. Secondly, the trough becomes disconnected from the main jet, stateside, which means we end up with LP stuck in the Atlantic with nowhere to go. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'm guessing that the FV3 is the GFS parallel?

Haven't heard any mention of the Arpege so far, this year, either. Has it been binned, or aren't we yet quite that desperate?

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inghams85 Community Regular

inghams85

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted

MJO now showing its move into Phase7. The stratospheric winds drop around the 24th. All now coming into view and upgrades to follow in higher res. As Steve says JMA/UKMO/FV3 about to be slowly joined by ECM. Tomorrow's runs will be very interesting

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

The issue is twofold. Firstly, even though there are residual heights left towards Greenland (owing to a ridge thrown up in the Atlantic) the main bulk of heights slip SE. This stops any pressure falls across SE Europe, and so no encouragement for that LP to the SW to head back ESE as an absorbed feature within the Atlantic troughing. Secondly, the trough becomes disconnected from the main jet, stateside, which means we end up with LP stuck in the Atlantic with nowhere to go. 

Yes i was thinking that, we need it to shift SE, if it would phase with any trough dropping south into mainland Europe it would be a good thing but until it shifts, the trough dropping will be shunted too far East so its chicken and egg.

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GeordieX9v Aficionado

GeordieX9v

Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
Posted (edited)

We've been in far worse positions than this during the colder months. We're only in mid-November!

 

An improvement over the previous.

let.png

Edited by evans1892
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm guessing that the FV3 is the GFS parallel?

Haven't heard any mention of the Arpege so far, this year, either. Has it been binned, or aren't we yet quite that desperate?

APERGE is a high-res short term model, it only goes out a few days, the period we’re interested in is well out of range

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

192 very decent but we just need all that elongated troughing to dive soon or it will be another brilliant potential setup wasted.

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

ECMOPEU12_192_1.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.png

Ironically ECM goes the other way in the latter stages and it becomes a question of whether the Greenland high can be strong enough to stop the cold air going to our west (if there is enough momentum to push it south)!

So GFS and ECM show two different scenarios which means somewhere in the middle (where the focus of the cold air is over Europe) is still a possibility and at this point can't be ruled out yet.

More runs needed...

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Seasonal Trim Rising Star

Seasonal Trim

Posted
  • Location: Linford, Essex
  • Location: Linford, Essex
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm guessing that the FV3 is the GFS parallel?

Haven't heard any mention of the Arpege so far, this year, either. Has it been binned, or aren't we yet quite that desperate?

Isn't the Arpege a short range model? We're not quite there yet.

Edited by Nizzer
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