Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Met4Cast]

Very subtle improvements on the 12z runs though certainly no jump back to the type of charts we were seeing/want to be seeing. Temperatures still largely remaining below average from next week probably out until the beginning of December. GFS mean a slight improvement overall which is better than seeing it continue go the other way.

Until models resolve the EPO I think anything beyond day 5 can be binned, not because it's not showing deep cold but because it's so inconsistent and volatile at the moment it's barely with commenting on them.

The AO forecast is distinctly downwards into a mod-deep negative, we're in a pretty decent position and whilst it might be slightly disappointing at the moment going forward into December holds a huge amount of promise, this cold spell isn't a write off just yet, either.

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by Paul

[Mike Poole]

Well it's out to T120 now, and the only way this is going isn't Essex, it's Greenland, FV3 T120:

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Well it's out to T120 now, and the only way this is going isn't Essex, it's Greenland, FV3 T120:



In the rather unlikely event the FV3 happens to be right and all the models and their ensemble suites back track towards it I think that'd be the greatest model victory we've ever seen!

[SMU]

JMA also looking very good @84

cold enough for snow in the S/SE with ~524 thicknesses!

[ALL ABOARD]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

In the rather unlikely event the FV3 happens to be right and all the models and their ensemble suites back track towards it I think that'd be the greatest model victory we've ever seen!

Truee, but if it is wrong then it's performed worse than the GFS and should be put into the bin.. Imagine how tamping you'd be if you spent all that money to produce a worse model

[Midlander]

Here we have the start of the pull back from the GFS(P) A Griceland high, not as good as a Greenland high. Further north and west yet again.

[weatherguy]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well it's out to T120 now, and the only way this is going isn't Essex, it's Greenland, FV3 T120:

150h now....Slight variations to its last run, but much of the same theme - GFSP sticking to its guns.

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, evans1892 said:

Could edit the credits in for me as I can't seem to find an edit option. Hopefully it won't be needed as the ICON is a good start.

Sorry for delayed reply. All done  Yeah, hopefully won’t get too many visits to the pram store; we may just run out of toys and pushchairs! ICON did seem pretty good, though not too sure what to think of the 12Z operational GFS. Seems a bit all over the place in FI. Perhaps not surprising considering the sort of pattern the models are handling. 

The theme of some of that Northern UK blocking High Pressure ridge sinking to our East into Europe still seems apparent, albeit it takes over a week to do so, plus Low Pressure to the South-West of the U.K looks more squashed and disrupts Eastwards to our South/South-West a little bit better later next week. But a satisfactory run overall (could have been more appealing, but then it could be a lot worse). Generally a chilly looking update. 

Edited November 17, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[E17boy]

Hi good peeps

Hope everyone is having a great weekend, here at Upton Park east London it's been a sunny day but now it feels quite chilly out here.

Nexr week looks as if things will get colder but as I mentioned in my post yesterday it's not going to be the brutal cold we are all waiting for. Looks as if there will be a lot of rain and drizzly weather from this easterly but I still think we won't see any snow yet.

i love all the great posts on here and the effort that is put by some to share their knowledge. I must admit that seeing so many suggested outcomes after next week I am a bit in no mans land at the moment. It is a situation that will keep on changing easpecially when it comes to positioning of a high pressure. 

What I am dreading and I hope it does not go that way is for the high to drift southeast into the continent. If this happens we could become locked in a situation where the south westt winds prevail and this pattern can become stuck for weeks. We will just have to see what happens. 

So for now getting colder but where this will go remains to show. 

Wishing you all a lovely evenig 

kind regards

[SMU]

FV3 156 - another UKMO/FV3 boom

[GeordieX9v]

I'll bank that para run! As others have said what a win this could be. better heights and consistency

 

[Derecho]

12z swingometers

Hard to tell where the model output is going as the output for 8 days time still looks highly uncertain. A few colder runs in there but again a lack of options suggesting a full blown Greenland high in contrast to two days ago.

As mentioned though it is very fine margins with regards to what happens to the high to our North so I'm not going to stick my neck out and say which way this is going to go yet.

For November 25th

GFS Op - Rather quiet with temperatures not too far away from average around the UK (pretty non-descript, not great but not awful either)

Control - Same category, quite similar to the OP

Parallel - Rather cold, blocking still does good on this run though the Greenland high can't quite hold it together for long enough to give us some real cold for that time(rather cold category). Some -10 uppers though may clip the SE if the high is slow to sink.

Edited November 17, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Mike Poole]

FV3 T204:

The games still on, and then some...

[Allseasons-Si]

Just a quick one from me before i nip out

either the fv3 is sending us into a parra-llel universe or going to win the parra olympics with a golden medal,we will find out!

maybe it's following the cpc from last night

be back later.

Edited November 17, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[tight isobar]

Fv3...like a dog with a bone!!!

Keeps finding the cold spillage..run an-run again!!!

Edited November 17, 2018 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

No matter what happens in the medium term, the GEFS mean and a lot of runs are going pseudo-zonal around the D13-15 mark, not a rampant jet with an enormous PV, but still a mobile pattern with any ridges becoming fairly nondescript and transient in nature.

[WalsallWeather123]

Just catching up on the models. Certainly didn't expect snow forecast especially so far north into the Midlands

[SLEETY]

so ignore the semi reliable time frame and treat days 13-15 as being correct.Yeah,that makes a lot of sense.

[John Cox]

Just so that people don’t become too despondent with the recent ups and downs regarding cold coming and getting snow this winter, I think we just need to step back a little bit and look at the type of synoptics and related weather type we have had since the “beast from the East” arrived last late Feb/early March.

Our blisteringly hot summer was based on similar synoptics we are beginning to see now. Yes, we have had some blips with some Westerly incursions of cyclonic weather. Predominately though. we have been influenced by more Northerly/Easterly/Southerly weather synoptics since last March.

Where are our regular westerlies that we would normally been getting at this time of the year? Gone. Do they look like coming back in the near/Mid term? No.

Maybe i am being overly optimistic, but things to me look different this late autumn. It looks to me very like that the synoptics have a look of late 2010 written all over it.

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No matter what happens in the medium term, the GEFS mean and a lot of runs are going pseudo-zonal around the D13-15 mark, not a rampant jet with an enormous PV, but still a mobile pattern with any ridges becoming fairly nondescript and transient in nature.

Think it will take the highest resolution  models  to resolve this actually, so it really is a standoff between ECM and FV3 both ~13km, we've seen FV3's hand so over to you ECM...

[jules216]

Its incredible how can low pressure systems dive south in North America yet we can not achieve this in Europe,this toothless scandi high will not even produce snow anywhere bar  high ground areas like Alps and high pressure is waiting in the wings once pattern de-ampyfies.Something has switched in recent climo,the only saving grace for winters in Europe seem to be SSW events(2013,2018) take these away and in last 8 years there has been very few wintery months, even MJO will be going to phase 7 with reasonable amplitude, that suppose to favour through that should dig south,yet judging by the mean its heading the opposite direction

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, SLEETY said:

so ignore the semi reliable time frame and treat days 13-15 as being correct.Yeah,that makes a lot of sense.

Just saying that no matter what happens in the mid range (and there are variations on a theme), there has been an increasing signal for less cold over the last few ensembles suites late on in the runs, fine i could accept your criticism if we were looking at a nailed on beast from the east in the 7 day range first, why not enjoy it first, but we are not.

[Tim Bland]

Do we have any verification stats on the GFS(p) yet?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Do we have any verification stats on the GFS(p) yet?

Apparently its verifying quite well.

[GeordieX9v]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Do we have any verification stats on the GFS(p) yet?

I believe it is the best performing at the moment?