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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO FV3 Side by side

D05A0A97-F8E6-44C6-A054-3860D9F1DA88.thumb.png.56e380717d1986ac0d94f16981cbd2d1.pngC061313A-9648-4B0E-B044-25047DC0B59A.thumb.png.3af54f60b90aaf53306b44e95daae6a7.png

see why the met said their is a small chance of even colder weather arriving from the north.They obviously think the gfs parallel is onto something and their model is following it now.The excitement increases...

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Any charts to back up your viewpoint? One liners without charts aren't helpful unless they refer to a certain timeframe.

GFSOPEU12_126_2.png

Anyway the GFS 12z is an improvement upstream with a deeper low sending more milder air to the west of Greenland which could strengthen the block more. Its different to the 06z parallel still but a shift towards it.

2

Can’t post them for some reason but hoping the time of post refers to the current model output....obviously makes a difference a few hours time but now time,  look at post and look at model.  But what is very apparent is that ‘your fear’ of rampant jet May not be an issue

BFTP

 

 

Edited by Paul
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

GFS 12z looks very iffy from 144 the way it just shunts the whole pattern SE.

The ensembles might be more informative.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Txt book icelandic high...with AT-waa for back up ..this time range..is crucial over nxt 2 days evo...

ANYTHING AFTER THIS MUST BE SPECULATION...given ramifications!

gfs-0-156.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFS 12z looks very iffy from 144 the way it just shunts the whole pattern SE.

The ensembles might be more informative.

Look at all that blocking to our North West though - PV destroyed as we move towards December. 

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
Just now, swfc said:

Must just be me but gFS 12z has heights draining away into Europe at the 180hr mark???

Yeah it does unfortunately, we get some small improvements upstream early on but we can't keep a low at bay to the west of Greenland. Still all on a knifes edge though.

Hopefully we see it stay over Iceland or Greenland rather then sinking, to prevent any potential awakening of the North Atlantic.

Very difficult to call whats going to happen when there are key uncertainties between T96 and T144 still to resolve.

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
29 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Can’t post them for some reason but hoping the time of post refers to the current model output....obviously makes a difference a few hours time but now time,  look at post and look at model.  But what is very apparent is that ‘your fear’ of rampant jet May not be an issue

BFTP

 

 

 it was merely stating that if blocking doesn't materialise then other factors may work against us later as they may favour a more active North Atlantic jet. It isn't active now but it wasn't in November 2016 either.

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS 12z looks very iffy from 144 the way it just shunts the whole pattern SE.

The ensembles might be more informative.

Don't worry mate the ECM will come up with a belter shortly, that's what normally happens doesn't it in the roller-coaster Winter season. One drops the batton, another picks it up to keep everyone of their toes. 

Viewing from phone, but so far things looking better from what's been posted upto 144.  

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

One thing to take as a certainty...

Is the polar vortex is as messed up..and in as sorry state as THAT!!!

gfsnh-0-228.png

download (1).jpeg

Edited by tight isobar
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Is it wrong to actually quite like where this run is going in FI??

Attempted Scandi ridging once more, amongst other things

gfsnh-0-276.png?12

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

If this is anything to go by, a spell of light winds and widespread nighttime fog might be in store?

Netweather GFS Image

image.thumb.jpeg.29256044ba2ea9e7e253d4b9f283af0a.jpeg

Edited by Ed Stone
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

A tiger evident in the FV3 at T66, from the head down to the tail...

image.thumb.jpg.32931480ce75d0114bb27c70365b3e88.jpg

Some while to go yet to see whether this run supports the cold evolution most want.

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Midlander Community Regular

Midlander

Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Posted

Quite evident that the GFS(P) has now moved towards the Operational run and ECMWF, this was a big task for any model, but has proved particularly challenging for this model. Eyes on ECMWF.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

Better 12z from the GFS in the short/mid term, with stronger blocking to our north and towards Greenland, before it goes to pot (in terms of cold/blocking). That plus little agreement from the models beyond about 144 hours shows there is still high uncertainty. Where there is uncertainty, there is hope!

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

The main themes in the outlook are that it is a blocked outlook and that the models are still not showing much chance of proper significant cold heading our way but sometimes it is a long and tedious process before any cold can head out way so all is definately not lost.

Looking more likely midweek is going to be a cold and wet day for some, if it was winter with more cold air wrapped around thay low then it wiuld be a different story for sure. 

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Just had a look at model scores for day five and six and overall the worst scores I've seen for a while. Must be Brexit. I would take anything long term with a bag of grit rather than salt right now.

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weatherguy Aficionado

weatherguy

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
Posted
10 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Quite evident that the GFS(P) has now moved towards the Operational run and ECMWF, this was a big task for any model, but has proved particularly challenging for this model. Eyes on ECMWF.

Too early to tell, it's only out to +84h.

6z GFSP

gfsnh-0-90.png?6

12z GFSP

gfsnh-0-84.png?12

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