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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
1 hour ago, evans1892 said:

Not quite sure who the original creator of this was but I'm sure business has been booming recently.

Big 12z Ops to come hopefully in the right direction.

received_1631315403634963.jpeg

Great artistry, that is good @evans1892

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A SE'ly flow from around mid next week does seem to be getting more support now

ICON 12z

icon-0-120.thumb.png.1c13cfd05cfe42a2ab225f244b37a666.pngicon-0-144.thumb.png.d92620beb4db06296a74e444f88d1362.pngicon-0-168.thumb.png.e5e0f176436e27615277f505a80f8fa0.png

icon-1-120.thumb.png.7b153541282fd1968edb2d28e0f47a16.pngicon-1-144.thumb.png.7ed4760b2dcab52eec191858f8158bd1.pngicon-1-168.thumb.png.7ad3c1703363735f33c3e28d30268cf2.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

The ICON is more amplified than its flat 6Z but that  low is still too far west, not enough of an upgrade to get excited about.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

OK, so I think it's 1-0 to the Greenland high scenario from the ICON at T180, many more models to come though

image.thumb.jpg.687561f2303ffe7a67ab2ac45e4f94e6.jpg

Not sure if the ICON is what we are looking for, the high appears to sink from T144 to T180 back into Europe. The high needs to build further west to prevent this.

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Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
5 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Hi Evans. Would have been me, but you’re fine to use it  (to be fair, was a Google image of a pram store that was edited to put a Netweather spin on things )

73D55F3C-5195-488E-9A98-57F883229BFF.thumb.png.3f613a0b4baa881cff6bfafa3253b534.png

Fingers crossed for some encouraging model outputs this evening for the cold and snow fans, otherwise I’d be seriously worried about how covered this thread gets with flying toys...

Edit: Just noticed the latest ICON run above. Quite a reasonable start, their.

Could edit the credits in for me as I can't seem to find an edit option. Hopefully it won't be needed as the ICON is a good start.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not sure if the ICON is what we are looking for, the high appears to sink from T144 to T180 back into Europe. The high needs to build further west to prevent this.

Difficult to say as the model stops at T180, but the jet stream south, so might counteract the concern, let's  see,what the other models say. jet stream ICON T180:

image.thumb.jpg.0d460f6e1deef1ef0d051cb1ceba4b71.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.f7846d047eca08b530c5ef9d322c2fd1.png

Key difference between the GFS 06z OP and parallel are at T99. The parallel develops a low to send warm air to the west of Greenland the OP doesn't.

What will the 12z show?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Ukmo day 5 is closer to ecm op with the cold pool but the day 6 chart could have possibilities to our north ..... at the moment the 12z ‘s aren’t quite riding to the coldies rescue ......

EDIT: day 6 could be worse ...... but it isn’t a gfsp copy ......

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

UKMO looking like cutting of the high around Iceland just need that Scandinavian low to get a move on then it's game on

Screenshot_20181117-155831.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Knife edge via 12z gfs...

AT-ridging trying 2 punch like mike tyson..against the spewing circular canadian energy...lots of resolve at this- geographical point over coming runs !!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I think there’ll be some different views re outlook coming up.....to cold confidence

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
52 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I think there’ll be some different views re outlook coming up.....to cold confidence

 

BFTP

Any charts to back up your viewpoint? One liners without charts aren't helpful unless they refer to a certain timeframe.

GFSOPEU12_126_2.png

Anyway the GFS 12z is an improvement upstream with a deeper low sending more milder air to the west of Greenland which could strengthen the block more. Its different to the 06z parallel still but a shift towards it.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Knife edge via 12z gfs...

AT-ridging trying 2 punch like mike tyson..against the spewing circular canadian energy...lots of resolve at the geographical point over coming runs !!!!

Could you run the sentence that begins 'lots of resolve' through Google translate for me please? 

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

A new trend imergeing a stronger cut off Icelandic high??.  We will see

Screenshot_20181117-161038.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
Just now, Steve Murr said:

UKMO FV3 Side by side

D05A0A97-F8E6-44C6-A054-3860D9F1DA88.thumb.png.56e380717d1986ac0d94f16981cbd2d1.pngC061313A-9648-4B0E-B044-25047DC0B59A.thumb.png.3af54f60b90aaf53306b44e95daae6a7.png

Seems quite a big difference there, on FV3 the high is extending into Greenland much more than the GFS also the FV3 has a deeper Scandinavia low which I presume increases the chance of colder uppers moving down?

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSOPEU12_138_1.png GFSOPEU06_144_1.png

GFS 12z (left) is an improvement on the 06z so far (right) at the same time (T138), the Icelandic high looks stronger then the Scandi part. The low coming out of Newfoundland helping strengthen the Greenland high a bit which can make a big difference in such a finely poised setup.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Less progressive Atlantic and sharper Scandi trough - are we slowly creeping back toward cold pattern consensus? I doubt it but going the right way.

gfsnh-0-150.png?12

 

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