Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, Devonshire said:

Ah, ok - I wonder if there is an easy way of distinguishing the parallel run from the others - indicating which category it is in, to see its trends alongside the other trends?

I'll make a note of which ones the OP, parallel and control fall into in future updates  

[Devonshire]

9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I'll make a note of which ones the OP, parallel and control fall into in future updates  

Thank you very much!

[GeordieX9v]

Not quite sure who the original creator of this was (see below) but I'm sure business has been booming recently.

Big 12z Ops to come hopefully in the right direction.

Image creater: DiagonalRedLine (Alex)

Edited November 17, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine
Requested for me to add in credentials for image :)

[Methuselah]

The GFS parallel has certainly hit the ground running...all we need is for it to be running in the right direction?

[daz_4]

Many already said it earlier but ECM is a clear winner for now. It stuck to its guns and modelled the area of low pressure over Europe correctly right from the beginning. GFS para had no clue 24 hours ago.

Yesterday

Today 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Many already said it earlier but ECM is a clear winner for now. It stuck to its guns and modelled the area of low pressure over Europe correctly right from the beginning. GFS para had no clue 24 hours ago.

Yesterday

Today 

We'll all know which, if either, model is right, come the 21st...?

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Many already said it earlier but ECM is a clear winner for now. It stuck to its guns and modelled the area of low pressure over Europe correctly right from the beginning. GFS para had no clue 24 hours ago.

Yesterday

Today 

Not completely right but prob more right than the others .......however, past day 5/6, it could well be wrong in other areas .....Exeter recognise that 30% chance of the gfsp being close to the mark ..... would be nice to know where mogreps are ......

Edited November 17, 2018 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Not completely right but more right than the others .......however, past day 5/6, it could well be wrong in other areas .....Exeter recognise that 30% chance of the gfsp being close to the mark ..... would be nice to know where mogreps are ......

If they have quoted 30%, perhaps 30% of the mogreps are showing it!, i can't imagine they would give too much weighting to a prototype GFS model given the resources at their own disposal.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Many already said it earlier but ECM is a clear winner for now. It stuck to its guns and modelled the area of low pressure over Europe correctly right from the beginning. GFS para had no clue 24 hours ago.

Yesterday

Today 

biggest concern is how wet Wednesday will be in the Midlands, could rain all day without a break, surface water, flooding maybe

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

biggest concern is how wet Wednesday will be in the Midlands, could rain all day without a break, surface water, flooding maybe

If 5-10mm in 24 hours causes flooding over the Midlands they may want to reassess their drainage systems...

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If they have quoted 30%, perhaps 30% of the mogreps are showing it!, i can't imagine they would give too much weighting to a prototype GFS model given the resources at their own disposal.

They don’t quote percentages - I was taking that from the cold eps cluster ..... however, now I’ve read it they talk about into December and the eps cluster/gfsp is onset around day 9/11.  Not for this thread but their 6/14 day forecast covers the more wintry option 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Not completely right but prob more right than the others .......however, past day 5/6, it could well be wrong in other areas .....Exeter recognise that 30% chance of the gfsp being close to the mark ..... would be nice to know where mogreps are ......

12Zs will sure make interesting viewing Blue!

I'm only speculating here but would the 30% be weighted towards the UKMET model?

Bearing in mind UKMO/GEM were pretty similar at 144 this morning and GEM did indeed go onto produce a very good run ..

Either way i'm sure the next 5 hours will be much more revealing, i'm sitting on the fence although my 75% confidence in an 'agreeable' outcome for coldies is now at 50%...

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

12Zs will sure make interesting viewing Blue!

I'm only speculating here but would the 30% be weighted towards the UKMET model?

Bearing in mind UKMO/GEM were pretty similar at 144 this morning and GEM did indeed go onto produce a very good run ..

Either way i'm sure the next 5 hours will be much more revealing, i'm sitting on the fence although my 75% confidence in an 'agreeable' outcome for coldies is now at 50%...

The 30% is purely my figure from the eps clusters which show a similar evolution to the gfsp 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The 30% is purely my figure from the eps clusters which show a similar evolution to the gfsp 

Yes thats understandable..as ever time will tell..

[andymusic]

15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

biggest concern is how wet Wednesday will be in the Midlands, could rain all day without a break, surface water, flooding maybe

or the models may well be showing snow for the welsh hills - could be fun yet

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

biggest concern is how wet Wednesday will be in the Midlands, could rain all day without a break, surface water, flooding maybe

Not sure where all this flooding talk is coming from, i'm aware that most people don't like rain but its like you have a phobia about it, its almost like you take the worst model run PPN, then treble it, is this some kind of reverse psychology?  im not being flippant as i am aware there is some kind of mental illness associated with weather, it causes some kind of depression with some people doesnt it? Just wondering if you need maybe to see a doctor.

[northwestsnow]

At this stage i cant see flooding being an issue,anywhere.

Although in fairness im more interested in how next weekend onwards unfolds..

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure where all this flooding talk is coming from, i'm aware that most people don't like rain but its like you have a phobia about it, its almost like you take the worst model run PPN, then treble it, is this some kind of reverse psychology?  im not being flippant as i am aware there is some kind of mental illness associated with weather, it causes some kind of depression with some people doesnt it? Just wondering if you need maybe to see a doctor.

Aye. Fantasising Modelitis...It can even cause night terrors.

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

tJust wondering if you need maybe to see a doctor.

Suspect we are all in need of some kind of therapy ......... my missus reckons we are all ‘saddos’ ....... I told her to leave me alone whilst i check locomotive numbers ..........

i 

[weatherguy]

GFSP/GFS/ECM/UKMO +144h:

Same again 48 hours later, excluding the UKMO as it doesn't run out this far, +192h:

In essence, we have the ECM/GFS  vs GFSP/UKMO.  By +144h, the NH pattern for all is, as expected at this range, broadly similar.  However, the 2 sets handle the Canadian sector with huge differences.  In essence, the GFSP has the Canadian LP positioned far enough NE that it is able to influence the sciceland high, thus allowing the siberian PV segment to drop in behind.  This is seen by +192, and the UKMO would perhaps progress to a similar scenario.  For the GFS and ECM, this does not happen and in the prior the high melts away (worst case scenerio), while the ECM has the high go through a combination of retrogression and sinking, which does pull the high to a similar position as is seen in the GFSP, but prevents the siberian PV from dropping in around its back.  

Until the Canadian sector is resolved, the evolution of this scenario remains uncertain.  All eyes should be looking west, not east, over the next few days to see how this progresses.

Edited November 17, 2018 by weatherguy

[Mike Poole]

And so to the 12s with the ICON just about to start rolling.
And it's squeaky bum time already, and it's only mid November. But surely this is what we are in this for,  the will it, won't it, knife-edge, tipping point scenario that currently faces us.
At T120 the models will either go for the Greenland high or they won't.  If they don't, the background drivers I would suggest give significant hope for something decent a week or so down the line (e.g. GFS 6z).
If they do, we are looking at 2010 redux, it's as simple as that.
Let the super-computers do their thing!

[SLEETY]

Already backtracking from the Met.Now talking sleet showers for next week,when before kept going on about nothing but rain showers at lower levels on their online forecasts.

 

Have they looked at the gfs p and realised that the form-model now along with nav model

 

 

 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Already backtracking from the Met.Now talking sleet showers for next week,when before kept going on about nothing but rain showers at lower levels on their online forecasts.

 

Have they looked at the gfs p and realised that the form-model now along with nav model

 

 

 

 

Are you referring to the ICON ? Just to tad confused 

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Are you referring to the ICON ? Just to tad confused 

No he,s refering to the Navgem model.

[Met4Cast]

ICON slightly further East with the low at T84.. come on, come on!!