Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[bluearmy]

Looks like a 30% chance on the eps clusters of that proper cold push from the ne 

the op/control cluster is 43% 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

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Posted Thursday at 17:29 (edited)

   On 15/11/2018 at 17:01,  Ed Stone said: 

The 12Z evolves in a fairly unique way IMO...not only is it unlike the ECM, it's even unlike itself??

And where's the jet stream gone?

I wonder how long that HP would need to hang about, for nighttime temperatures to reach minus double digits?

 

Quote

 

Pete...that’s cold....but as I have been hinted before and a ‘watch’ from me..the potential LP west of Iceland looks like a ‘bomb’ to move NNW/SSE to me

  

BFTP

 Edited Thursday at 17:34 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

 

 

The above is of interest.  We try and look where we are going after the initial Easterly.  06z shows that ‘bomb’ plunging NNW/SSE around turn of the month....not for first time as I mentioned this as a ‘watch’ scenario.  Could this be where we look and have to wait that bit longer for a more stable GHP?  I’m liking this 06z....and the model wrestling....and for me the cold pattern arriving will remain a cold pattern....it’s how it manifests going forward that needs deliberating

 

BFTP

Edited November 17, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

I'd rather see this than see a return to the rampant westerlies of the noughties:

Hopefully, a return to the variability of the 1960s, late '70s and most of the 1980s...?

[GeordieX9v]

Atlantic ridging on 6z

Edited November 17, 2018 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[bobbydog]

Yet another very different (and very good) evolution from the GFS

00z

06z

Whilst the details are unclear, the overwhelming theme over the past few days, (Yes, I have been watching but life's problems have been keeping me away from my hobbies) is for a definite slide into winter. Notably colder, more frequent wintry showers and more importantly, the signal for significant cold and snowy weather into western Europe - exactly where we need it. So far, this winter is shaping up to be a good one. Patience young jedis...

[DanBaynes]

 

16 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

We need to be looking West in these scenarios. At T+168 the potential is still there

 

7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

The above is of interest.  We try and look where we are going after the initial Easterly.  06z shows that ‘bomb’ plunging NNW/SSE around turn of the month....not for first time as I mentioned this as a ‘watch’ scenario.  Could this be where we look and have to wait that bit longer for a more stable GHP?  I’m liking this 06z....and the model wrestling....and for me the cold pattern arriving will remain a cold pattern....it’s how it manifests going forward that needs deliberating

 

BFTP

@BLAST FROM THE PAST would you and @chionomaniac both be thinking along the same lines?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'd rather see this than see a return to the rampant westerlies of the noughties:

Hopefully, a return to the variability of the 1960s, late '70s and most of the 1980s...?

certainly showing interesting start to Dec Ed, dreading tues/wed rain first though, very wet spell for my location coming up, the vilest setup possible for autumn

[shaky]

Tired of takin a look at these models now!!just look at the 06z and a mid atlantic ridge!!these runs are all over the place!!so draining lol!!

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks like a 30% chance on the eps clusters of that proper cold push from the ne 

the op/control cluster is 43% 

If we have any chance of resurrecting what the gfs was gunning for up until recently, we have to see that ecm 30% go up markedly on tonight's run. Otherwise it's on to the next chase. It's not winter yet so I am not too concerned. It would be a bonus to have a very cold early blast though. 

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Well there you are...where ya been ??!!

Busy mate, we have to move house in January. (Landlord selling up) another reason to be confident of a cold snowy winter. - My kind of luck says I'll be moving house in a blizzard...

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

certainly showing interesting start to Dec Ed, dreading tues/wed rain first though, very wet spell for my location coming up, the vilest setup possible for autumn

 

Really ?

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

If we have any chance of resurrecting what the gfs was gunning for up until recently, we have to see that ecm 30% go up markedly on tonight's run. Otherwise it's on to the next chase. It's not winter yet so I am not too concerned. It would be a bonus to have a very cold early blast though. 

The percentages are very similar to yesterday’s 12z run ........

 

[SMU]

59 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks like the 06z gfs has moved closer to the ecm. Quite frankly, whether the spoiler low anchors in north west France, central north France or the low countries doesn't mean a jot. The fact is it's there and it's stopping the really cold air to the north east from hitting our shores. The ecm was the only model to pick up on this. The others are slowly following suit. 

You keep looking in the wrong place - 

The models are resolving the forward speed of the pacific jet at 120 & how much angle the advection takes up towards greenland in the following 24 hours -

The UKMO / FV3 / GEM create enough vertical motion to ensure the high develops in situ over Greenland - the ECM doesnt

it has nowt to do with what you keep referring to - 

All 06 suite ( bar 06 operational) are more amplified at 120 - the 06z mean / the JMA / FV3

Ive added a picture. - so assuming the more amplified angle works the blue area of PVA dropping south will start forcing your spoiler shortwave back east-

Follow it on the Fv3 & GEM

* remember ECM is the least accurate model @ day 6 currently *

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by Steve Murr

[tight isobar]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Really ?

Yr.no

A very reliable source...imo.

 

[Mike Poole]

Meanwhile, on the FV3 at T144, nothing has changed...

[karlos1983]

Eesh, not what I was hoping to see

12z

00z

Finely balanced! Somethings got to give soon! 

Edited November 17, 2018 by karlos1983

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Seems like the GFS parallel is either the greatest thing since sliced bread, or it (to put it politely) still needs some work done?

To be on the safe side, I think I'll opt for the latter!

Ed I could be wrong so please correct me someone, but I think the parallel has been verifying better than any model at D9/D10 in recent times? 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

You keep looking in the wrong place - 

The models are resolving the forward speed of the pacific jet at 120 & how much angle the advection takes up towards greenland in the following 24 hours -

The UKMO / FV3 / GEM create enough vertical motion to ensure the high develops in situ over Greenland - the ECM doesnt

it has nowt to do with what you keep referring to - 

All 06 suite ( bar 06 operational is more amplified at 120 - the 06z mean / the JMA / FV3

Ive added a picture. - so assuming the more amplified angle works the blue area of PVA dropping south will start forcing your spoiler shortwave back east-

Follow it on the Fv3 & GEM

* remember ECM is the least accurate model @ day 6 currently *

 

Don't get me wrong Steve. I really do hope you are calling this correctly and thanks as ever for going into detail on your post. I was merely stating that all those golden gfs runs from this week showing the true winter nirvana charts did not model the south west low correctly - indeed, some didn't model it at all. The ecm did which is why none of the ecm ops showed wintry heaven. However, I am hoping you have a point but we need to see the swing back in the next 24 hours. 

[Methuselah]

You can always tell when there's a period of increased model-uncertainty at hand; peeps like to claim they have all the answers, and react almost irrationally when someone 'throws a spanner in the works', so to speak...Some of the responses to Tamara's (perfectly reasonable) suggestion, that an upcoming diminution of angular momentum, might just derail any imminent Beast From The East, were a case in point?

My point? Don't summarily disregard what folks are saying, just because it isn't what you want to hear...? 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Ed I could be wrong so please correct me someone, but I think the parallel has been verifying better than any model at D9/D10 in recent times? 

Possibly but this is such a delicate evolution that I doubt it makes a lot of difference

good to see the model being consistent if nothing else

going back to the eps cluster, whilst I don’t see it’s important for that 30% to grow, I do think we need the op to at least jump over to it for one run over the next 3 outputs 

[The PIT]

Not the best of runs this morning but to be honest we were probably expecting a little too much. Although there isn't much sign of deep cold in lala land neither does it show romping mild weather so the trend is for a return to what you's expect at this time of year temperature wise. Expect plenty of chopping and changing to continue though.

[Leo97t]

Gfs p is still stunning but Is so far from any other model

[SMU]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Don't get me wrong Steve. I really do hope you are calling this correctly and thanks as ever for going into detail on your post. I was merely stating that all those golden gfs runs from this week showing the true winter nirvana charts did not model the south west low correctly - indeed, some didn't model it at all. The ecm did which is why none of the ecm ops showed wintry heaven. However, I am hoping you have a point but we need to see the swing back in the next 24 hours. 

Updated FV3 06z

[blizzard81]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Meanwhile, on the FV3 at T144, nothing has changed...

As I said last night. This is an intriguing battle between the ecm and the gfsp. One of these models will have much egg on face very soon, that's for sure. A great positive is as Steve M has already pointed out - the ukmo seems to be siding with the gfsp. We won't have to wait too long for this to be resolved one way or the other. 

[Man With Beard]

Clusters at D11

Compared with two days ago

Everything similar - except one crucial thing - heights over Europe have dropped on most clusters. 

It's a small difference, and far from conclusive. No one could predict that kind of micro detail at such long range. The macro signals of ridge anomaly NW and trough anomaly S and E remain consistent - only the SE element of the anomaly less clear at this stage. 

Edited November 17, 2018 by Man With Beard