Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[SMU]

ICON 06z drifts towards the UKMO around 120 with better heights up to Greenland-

 

[Man With Beard]

The parallel continues to plot a different path, though it's shifted things a little north this morning 

Generally - it's got a little bit complicated in the past 24 hours. Always problems when west meets east - how well they interact? Good arguments for both a cessation or continuation of cold chances by D9 ish this morning. But I reiterate what I said last night - for the timeframe (even D7 being quite far off in such circumstances), the general pattern being shown across models this morning remains not a bad place to be in at all if hoping for early season snow. 

Incidentally, shorter term, Tuesday night looking like borderline chances of sleet/snow in central England according to ECM. 

Edited November 17, 2018 by Man With Beard

[Spah1]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any update on the icon 6z yet!!today will be the first day in so many days that the sun will be out here!that scandi high gona bring some real dry air from europe!!

Comes out at 9.30. 

If you want to look for yourself here you go. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Navgem ( FNO ) last 2 days has been numero uno at day 6 I kid you not!

Broken clock ...........

it’s not unheard of for it to be top historically but it verifies well down on average for a reason ........

icon 06z picks up a bit of pace wrt the 00z run 

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 06z drifts towards the UKMO around 120 with better heights up to Greenland-

 

But then drifts that low to the south further north just like the ecm!!not a good run so far

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The parallel continues to plot a different path, though it's shifted things a little north this morning 

Generally - it's got a little bit complicated in the past 24 hours. Always problems when west meets east - how well they interact? Good arguments for both a cessation or continuation of cold chances by D9 ish this morning. But I reiterate what I said last night - for the timeframe (even D7 being quite far off in such circumstances), the general pattern being shown across models this morning remains not a bad place to be in at all if hoping for early season snow. 

Incidentally, shorter term, Tuesday night looking like borderline chances of sleet/snow in central England according to ECM. 

Seems like the GFS parallel is either the greatest thing since sliced bread, or it (to put it politely) still needs some work done?

To be on the safe side, I think I'll opt for the latter!

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, shaky said:

But then drifts that low to the south further north just like the ecm!!not a good run so far

Look - almost identical to the FV3 which was great - 

[Weathizard]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Seems like the GFS parallel is either the greatest thing since sliced bread, or it (to put it politely) still needs some work done?

To be on the safe side, I think I'll opt for the latter!

People seem to pull out the GFS para and ICON when the main models start tracking away from what they want to see! Heck let’s get the CFS out whilst we are at it haha. We are still where we were a couple of days ago really I wasn’t convinced by the cold flooding in, we have a good starting point with the vortex floundering, let’s just hope we get another chance before it ramps up, which it will.

Edited November 17, 2018 by Weathizard

[MR EXTREMES]

18 minutes ago, shaky said:

But then drifts that low to the south further north just like the ecm!!not a good run so far

indeed i think the vortex needs a little more of a kicking.

although the heights to our north maybe underestimated and the lows to our south and southwest might be underestimated to.

so really anything is on the table what is clear is colder then a relaxation of cold.

then we look to more wave activity and further vortex disruption needs to happen.

although 9 times out of 10 when the ecm drops further blocking its normally right.

but the big question is will we be able to maintain heights to our north northeast or northwest.

and will we get the unsettled weather to our south and into the med.

what also could happen on future runs is a correction west this sometimes can happen.

although the last frames of the ecm do suggest deeper cold not to far from the north and east so slight corrections can make a difference.

all will the zonal winds increase dramatically

still not over far from it some places in the uk have already had cold snap.

we wait with prozac at the ready..

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by MR EXTREMES

[Leon1]

Forgive me if I'm wrong but looks like heights are building between Scandi and Iceland and in the Atlantic?

[Midlander]

2 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Forgive me if I'm wrong but looks like heights are building between Scandi and Iceland and in the Atlantic?

Correct Leon but we preferably need to see the heights move towards and over Greenland to lock us in to a severely cold and wintry setup.

[Leon1]

2 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Correct Leon but we preferably need to see the heights move towards and over Greenland to lock us in to a severely cold and wintry setup.

Yes hopefully , at T+117 there is greenie heights going through the north of us and the Atlantic but there is a low pressure over the UK which is bringing up southerly winds, maybe if this clears it will support the ridge and stop it from sinking...

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

People seem to pull out the GFS para and ICON when the main models start tracking away from what they want to see! Heck let’s get the CFS out whilst we are at it haha. We are still where we were a couple of days ago really I wasn’t convinced by the cold flooding in, we have a good starting point with the vortex floundering, let’s just hope we get another chance before it ramps up, which it will.

people rarely look at the icon in standard times ...... no need to .....who cares if it will be raining or not next Thursday ?  the icon is a decent model ....... not the best but certainly not the worst ...... I would put it on a par with the gfs. The gfsp is consistently verifying better than the gfs and will, in a years time, become the new gfs. It makes far more sense to use this model ahead of the gfs 

[Midlander]

3 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

Yes hopefully , at T+117 there is greenie heights going through the north of us and the Atlantic but there is a low pressure over the UK which is bringing up southerly winds, maybe if this clears it will support the ridge and stop it from sinking...

Ideally I would like the low to be further east than what is currently modelled.

[blizzard81]

Looks like the 06z gfs has moved closer to the ecm. Quite frankly, whether the spoiler low anchors in north west France, central north France or the low countries doesn't mean a jot. The fact is it's there and it's stopping the really cold air to the north east from hitting our shores. The ecm was the only model to pick up on this. The others are slowly following suit. 

Edited November 17, 2018 by BornFromTheVoid
Edited out removed comment.

[January Snowstorm]

The 06z run is just a complete dogs dinner. Just goes to show northern blocking doesn't always produce the goods and of equal importance is low heights over Europe.

Where we go by months end is anyone's guess but hard to ignore the fact that heights over Greenland are going blue in a weeks time

Edit: I mean yellow lol

Edited November 17, 2018 by January Snowstorm

[MattStoke]

6z builds a mid Atlantic high by 192 hours, with a rise in heights over Greenland also. Quite different to the 0z.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS 06z  or 00z or indeed either? the path ahead is far from resolved and it’ll be into next week before they will settle into how the last week of Nov likely pans out let alone early Dec.  Loads to keep watching for and no despondency required...just look at how different 06 and 00z are.  Which one is right?

 

BFTP

Edited November 17, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Leon1]

Possible northerly?

[Tim Bland]

Potential northerly coming up? I’d prefer that to a toothless easterly tbh. Better chances of tapping into colder air sources from arctic 

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by Tim Bland

[jules216]

Sorry for a banter post here.

Euro High(special focus Baltics-Black Sea axis) is back on both ECMWF and GFS, it does not matter how deep -AO and -NAO gets.

Yet I have not found any +anomaly for this on any EPS, GEFS,GEPS or CFS yet it suddenly appears out of nowhere. 

I can tell you now it will be there for a long time believe me, it has been quasi permanent feature since May and only receded for a week at the end of sept and around now for a few days.

[Nick F]

The low that ends up the SW of UK tail end of next week, which is causing much consternation for some, is actually the product of an expanding cold pool shifting west across continental Europe during next week - rather than the result of the more usual resurgence of Atlantic jet. You can see the cold pool in green shifting west on the 500mb/slp loop below:

The northern arm of the jet way to the north over Greenland and northern Norway while an equally strong southern arm way to the south, which could be a feature this winter with the El Nino picking up.

So, little impetus from the Atlantic jet for the UK … despite that pesky low being modelled to the SW later next week … rather we have a stagnating pattern of upper low close to SW and high pressure close to the north … until we get a push from either a resurgence of the jet further south towards the UK across the Atlantic or another cold pool dropping south somewhere across northern Europe.

As far as I can see, little sign of raging zonality, rather a blocky and stagnant pattern over NW Europe, but big questions over where the highs and lows position exactly and whether there will be another deep cold shot from the arctic heading down into northern/northeastern Europe before the months end. 06z GFS shows that a buckling jet, helped by the blocking, could lead to a cold shot from the north, but one of other possible outcomes of course. 

Edited November 17, 2018 by Nick F

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

A pretty potent Northerly blast in 10 days time shown by the gfs-p on the 6z run

[tight isobar]

The old-atlantic ridge...AGAIN !!!

the route for uk cold lies here...!!

The source of bringing in winter proper!?..

Scandi/north eastern block/blocks are in disolve mode...

Edited November 17, 2018 by tight isobar

[Tim Bland]

Not a bad position to be in at the start of winter. Heights are a bit lower over the northern states than 00z but pressure is much lower over Southern Europe and heights are building towards Greenland. Just want to keep the PV over the eastern side, don’t want to see it creaping back towards Canada