Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Radiating Dendrite]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM 12z on the 8th December for today

ECM +0 today

not a bad match for a poorly performing model.  I shan’t be recycling this run, not wise.

Although the last 24hrs have stepped away from the deep cold being modelled, I don’t think we can grumble at the overall NH pattern, ECM at D10 is not to be sniffed at if you are looking for a possible route to cold.

It was not spot on though and I think people are pointing to the little differences being the key driver in what the entire pattern will be.

I think we will just see a predominently dry and chilly period with night frosts and cool days but nothing too significant. The Atlantic is quiet though which is a big positive as we head in to winter.

[Chesil View]

Also worth noting regarding the ECM is that according to a post by Mr Murr over on TWO. Since November 12th ECM has been bottom of the pile for verification at day 6 according to NCEP stats.

Edited November 17, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[karlos1983]

14 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It was not spot on though and I think people are pointing to the little differences being the key driver in what the entire pattern will be.

I think we will just see a predominently dry and chilly period with night frosts and cool days but nothing too significant. The Atlantic is quiet though which is a big positive as we head in to winter.

I wouldn’t expect any model to be “spot on” at D9 though would you? It’s a pretty damn good match! 

The GFS on the other hand..

It’s good.... but it’s not quite Carling.

more Euro high than sceuro, trough distruption in the Atlantic not happening...

Edited November 17, 2018 by karlos1983

[blizzard81]

43 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I would think the ecm was first to pick up the signal of the low off our southwest becoming more of a player. When the gfs was churing run after run of bitter cold the ecm was almost always saying no.

Absolutely. The ecm was spot on with that low. Don't get me wrong. There is just about time left for the ecm to be wrong with the track of that low but time is running out plus most of the other models have followed suit. 

[Mr snowman 2018]

Knew this would happen always does in this country we just always seem to be desperately unlucky when it comes to blocking. The ECM was the first to point out no snow at the end of November and bravo to it cool/cold then milder next weekend until next time

[bluearmy]

This one is tight, that one is wrong .....etc etc etc

none of them are ever right ....... that’s why we do this !  

There can be little doubt that ec op has led the way on any initial attempt to bring deep cold in failing.  That’s to do it’s the way it has never been happy to leave the upper low to just dissipate to our advantage and was always progressive in taking it further west and phasing with the trough headed in from the sw. has it been totally correct? No it hasn’t and it still isn’t now. Has it been more correct in respect of what happens to the weather in nw Europe?  Yes it has. 

Anyway, the clusters will reveal later that there is definitely one which brings winter to w Europe days 9/10. How big is unknown but I haven’t noticed it thus far on the model getting this far west. All is not lost ....... still two weeks of autumn left ............

the overall mean pattern establishing for the end of vobember and into winter is one which has been trailed on the seasonals 

the Atlantic storm track is deflected into w Europe by northern/ n Atlantic blocking 

in this scenario, the uk will often lie in the broad battleground area ...... that looks like it’s coming for later this month but whether we end with Scotland or Hampshire being closer to the dividing line is the question. Any failure of low heights to our south will affect things and we know how fickle they can be ......

despite the current general malaise, ( which is totally misplaced) you know you will all be back later ............ that’s why your reading this now ................

Edited November 17, 2018 by bluearmy

[Met4Cast]

Well screw all the other models my money is on the GFS para

Edited November 17, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[SMU]

30 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Absolutely. The ecm was spot on with that low. Don't get me wrong. There is just about time left for the ecm to be wrong with the track of that low but time is running out plus most of the other models have followed suit. 

How can one model wrong & another one be spot on for an event 5 days in the future-?

Heres the big 5 @ day 5 & the ECM sits as an outlier with all the energy to the west of Spain 

All other 4 hang the main system up over the UK

ECM

 

So as it stands + The model stats leading in day 6 ECM appears an outlier- 

Im sure all will be resolved tomorrow...

 

Edited November 17, 2018 by Steve Murr

[nick sussex]

Yuk ! What happened ?

I think there’s no point in trying to spin some obvious downgrades in the outputs . Putting aside the disagreements the set up seems to refuse to fall into place .

The UKMO is clearly today’s life raft for coldies but even then it’s not that convincing. Although that keeps the shallow low near the UK and upstream energy further apart and less likely to phase .

You can see it all goes Pete tong on the ECM with phasing and the bowling ball low coming out of the USA.

The GEM shows a way to get something decentish, you really mustn’t have an early phasing of low near UK with upstream energy . The longer you keep lower heights to the south the better .

Overall the models don't  have that clean looking route to cold in terms of retrogression , so I think we’re in a holding pattern waiting to get a better handle of the upstream pattern . 

Earlier we do see that easterly but too early for anything of note but it will certainly feel colder early next week.

[Ventnor Viking]

16 hours ago, Shaftesbury Snow said:

There obviously will be some blocking, but I have a feeling that  we may start to see little by little downgrades and the GFS falling in line with ECMWF. there appears to be too much energy in Canada for the block to take a decent hold in the early stages which I think may be a theme going forward,

Unfortunately this was pretty clear yesterday and even late Wednesay in to Thursday. I think everyone gets over excited and then desperately disappointed. I'm glad both GFS and ECMWF are aligning now which will help for more accurate trends going forward. Looking at blocking synoptics so far ahead, anything past 144, is not great. Except 2010, most blocks start to develop and show strength not beyond 144ish, of course there will be hints past this. 

 

[Starsail]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 ............ that’s why your reading this now ................

How do .you know I am reading this now? Very impressive. Who needs computer models when you have these powers......

Seriously though, the point you make about us being geographically on the borderline between the mobile Atlantic and the near continent is what makes it so precarious every time. Much like waiting for the outcome of our political future, you have to be very, very patient to be a cold weather fan in the UK.

You are absolutely correct. We keep coming back for more.

[seabreeze86]

I see overnight runs have resolved nothing very tricky set up for the models that why verification stats are dropping for the Northern hemisphere. In these cases often not always the UKMO is the one to follow. Anyone got the verification stats for the new GFSp it's like a dog with a bone with bringing the cold west

[bluearmy]

There is a facility on meteociel to compare same timescale for all models 

saves lots of screenshots and uploading 

day 5 as Steve has posted above 

ec remains progressive as it has done for many days but it’s broad progressive theme now picked up generally ..... however, it’s likely very wrong at some point and it’s where the progressiveness ends which we need to suss out .........

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

How can one model wrong & another one be spot on for an event 5 days in the future-?

Heres the big 5 @ day 5 & the ECM sits as an outlier with all the energy to the west of Spain 

All other 4 hang the main system up over the UK

ECM

 

So as it stands + The model stats leading in day 6 ECM appears an outlier- 

Im sure all will be resolved tomorrow...

 

And also every other model has  a much deeper low across eastern usa!where ks it on the ecm!!aah well worse come to worse hopefully we get a dusting of snow next week from the east winds!!ukmo looking the best for that!!-6 -7 850s from the continent says snow to me i think!

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There is a facility on meteociel to compare same timescale for all models 

saves lots of screenshots and uploading 

day 5 as Steve has posted above 

ec remains progressive as it has done for many days but it’s broad progressive theme now picked up generally ..... however, it’s likely very wrong at some point and it’s where the progressiveness ends which we need to suss out .........

But making a quick, and definitely a one off, foray into here the comment that all the energy on the ecm at day five is west of Spain is not strictly accurate

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just for a bit of fun again, I’ll admit. But the 00Z NAVGEM (yeah, the NAVGEM ), continues with its idea of a cut off High over the Iceland area at 180 hours.

Looks a bit of an improvement compared to its 12Z run yesterday. A slightly better positioned Low to the South/South-South-West of the U.K. The whole pattern looks a bit cleaner.

Yesterday’s 12Z run at the same time frame below.

Fair to say it’s not quite following the GFS (non-parallel) and ECMWF runs of this morning.  

True what people say, though - still doesn’t seem like any model has got the final handle on the blocking pattern yet beyond the next 5 days or so. Still aspects to resolve such as the handling of the blocking over Northern UK - how much of that ridge might collapse into mainland Europe and how much of that (including ridging from the Azores area) gets cut off to our North-West, and the like.

[JBMWeatherForever]

All the models seemed to have currently stepped back from a smooth route to deep cold. They still haven't taken away that possibility altogether though, far from it. Just a weaker signal currently, which I think will become stronger again within a few days. The modelling of retrogression even when it is about to unfold, historically isn't usually straight forward, and I think we are just seeing that in the models at present as they struggle with what isn't the norm. I still think we have a good chance of tapping into deep cold before November is out.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended has more precipitation for England and Wales than GFS does at D7 

ECM hasn't updated on that site at the time of posting

[karlos1983]

Has the NAVGM had an upgrade this summery hat I’m unaware of  or something? All of a sudden it’s king pin (I wonder why) . 

Any possible return to less cold conditions (if indeed that happens at all) does look short lived on the ECM ens graph as we dip again after the 24/25th

Edited November 17, 2018 by karlos1983

[shaky]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has more precipitation for England and Wales than GFS does at D7 

ECM hasn't updated on that site at the time of posting

That ukmo day 7 chart looks nothing like the ecm!!looks much better with stronger heights to the north and easterly flow across the uk!!

[Ravelin]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Has the NAVGM had an upgrade this summery hat I’m unaware of  or something? All of a sudden it’s king pin (I wonder why) .

Maybe we've just hit on the one very messy type of pattern that the NAVGM is better at handling? We know all of the models have thier weak and strong points after all, even the 'mighty ECM'. 

[shaky]

Any update on the icon 6z yet!!today will be the first day in so many days that the sun will be out here!that scandi high gona bring some real dry air from europe!!

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Has the NAVGM had an upgrade this summery hat I’m unaware of  or something? All of a sudden it’s king pin (I wonder why) . 

Many possible return to less cold conditions (if indeed that happens at all) does look short lived on the ECM ens graph as we dip again after the 24/25th

It seems I made the right decision, after all; sleep was indeed more beneficial than another round of model torture?

Anywho, you can always tell when the writing's well and truly on the wall: the ever-dependably NAVGEM rears its ugly head!

Here's to seeing something a little better, today...?

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Has the NAVGM had an upgrade this summery hat I’m unaware of  or something? All of a sudden it’s king pin (I wonder why) . 

Any possible return to less cold conditions (if indeed that happens at all) does look short lived on the ECM ens graph as we dip again after the 24/25th

 

12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Has the NAVGM had an upgrade this summery hat I’m unaware of  or something? All of a sudden it’s king pin (I wonder why) . 

Any possible return to less cold conditions (if indeed that happens at all) does look short lived on the ECM ens graph as we dip again after the 24/25th

Navgem ( FNO ) last 2 days has been numero uno at day 6 I kid you not!

Edited November 17, 2018 by Steve Murr

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It seems I made the right decision, after all; sleep was indeed more beneficial than another round of model torture?

Anywho, you can always tell when the writing's well and truly on the wall: the ever-dependably NAVGEM rears its ugly head!

Here's to seeing something a little better, today...?

Yes, probably the BOM

anyway I’m off to get my bodyguard

for the record, it wouldn’t surprise me if we had Stella runs back by the 12z! 

Edited November 17, 2018 by karlos1983