Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[northwestsnow]

20 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

As has been stated, operational runs tomorrow could be anything from very cold to not so cold/mild in the D7+ range, the ENS show that quite nicely. I’ve seen a lot worse 

Excellent ensembles !!!

Det quite a significant outlier!!

Game on.

[blizzard81]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Excellent ensembles !!!

Det quite a significant outlier!!

Game on.

Look at the control though. Also the mean rises unmistakably towards the end. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Look at the control though. Also the mean rises unmistakably towards the end. 

Mean looks fairly consistent to me Blizzard?

(Yellow line)

op could be leading the way, we'll have a better idea come morning..

Blue line is GFS i think, and thats an outlier..

Edited November 16, 2018 by northwestsnow

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS are absolutely garbage at the end - big switch to mild

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Mean looks fairly consistent to me Blizzard?

(Yellow line)

op could be leading the way, we'll have a better idea come morning..

From the 27th Nov to the end it is constantly rising I'm afraid. 

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Look at the control though. Also the mean rises unmistakably towards the end. 

That’s slightly skewed because of the few outlandishly mild runs. I don’t think anything’s nailed one way or the other yet and this most definitely will not be resolved by tomorrow, not a chance.(imo)

Edited November 16, 2018 by karlos1983

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS are absolutely garbage at the end - big switch to mild

I fear we are witnessing a big win for ecm on this one. If anybody has been reading my posts over the last couple of hours they will know where my chips have been stacked. I really do wish I was wrong and hey! I may still be wrong. However, I think I'm right on this one. Onwards and upwards to the next cold chase. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS are absolutely garbage at the end - big switch to mild

Yeah, pretty grim compared to what we've seen. However, I've always viewed this attempt as a bonus so I'm really not too fussed if this is to go titicus verticus on this occasion.

[Mike Poole]

FV3 18z at T360 - this isn't the first run that has landed the UK into the freezer with no obvious exit date.  There have been a fair few runs that have left us in a gigantic freeze, this is another one...

 

 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Yeah, pretty grim compared to what we've seen. However, I've always viewed this attempt as a bonus so I'm really not too fussed if this is to go titicus verticus on this occasion.

I know what you are saying. 62/63 had similar early fledgling attempts at cold during the late autumn 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I fear we are witnessing a big win for ecm on this one. If anybody has been reading my posts over the last couple of hours they will know where my chips have been stacked. I really do wish I was wrong and hey! I may still be wrong. However, I think I'm right on this one. Onwards and upwards to the next cold chase. 

Agree, i dont think even the pro's or top dog posters on here can pretend they know what exactly is going to happen, but there wont be any country wide proper cold spell for a few weeks now, however as @CreweCold says, dont be too downhearted at this, to put it in perspective, i can only really remember a few in the mid nineties that were decent and only one absolute corker in 2010 wrt November cold spells, the hemispheric pattern is conducive to something better further on into December.

[GeordieX9v]

FV3 top of the verification atm... positives.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Agree, i dont think even the pro's or top dog posters on here can pretend they know what exactly is going to happen, but there wont be any country wide proper cold spell for a few weeks now, however as @CreweCold says, dont be too downhearted at this, to put it in perspective, i can only really remember a few in the mid nineties that were decent and only one absolute corker in 2010 wrt November cold spells, the hemispheric pattern is conducive to something better further on into December.

I hope for the same

[northwestsnow]

I'm not for one minute doubting that even more entropy has surfaced today but i would personally not be shocked if we saw a scaling back of Atlantic influence come the morning, I have a feeling UKMO is leading the way here and im of the opinion its the best 144 chart this evening.

I could be wrong but i feel some members are jumping the gun a bit here, that's not intended to patronising by the way

[danthetan]

Big swings in the Det is part and parcel of this unusual pattern. I personally love it when the models go into this phase as anything is on the table it’s pot luck like nature is taking back control.

[Geordiesnow]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Agree, i dont think even the pro's or top dog posters on here can pretend they know what exactly is going to happen, but there wont be any country wide proper cold spell for a few weeks now, however as @CreweCold says, dont be too downhearted at this, to put it in perspective, i can only really remember a few in the mid nineties that were decent and only one absolute corker in 2010 wrt November cold spells, the hemispheric pattern is conducive to something better further on into December.

You say not even the top dog posters can pretend they know what will happen yet you then say there won't be a proper countrywide cold spell for a few weeks? So how do you know that? There does seem to be a gradual shift of the potential I'll admit with the Greenland high ridge signal weakening but we could easily be having a different conversation by this time tomorrow, thats the beauty/frustration of model watching. Of course we are definately going to head into a chillier spell of weather in anycase even if the snowfall potential looks limited although perhaps slightly interestingly one that may throw a few surprises if the trough does head close to the UK and there is still some cold air wrapped around it. 

So at this stage, don't rule anything out for November just yet. 

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

18z ...gfs.

The options northern hemisphericaly..are out of box...and on the table!!..

Some top-notch evo's and possibilities..

I said id 'throw up an analysis'...

But i think in short its covered...and on the privy' i won't!..

That az-ridge i keep boring you with is AGAIN-imo as massive a feature as the ever modeled pacific/eastern seabord ridge...

And with the polar shallow annom

Is enough 4 me to sit bk-and be VERY  optamistc, for gain and fruition...

Wave2..alarms are ringing...

And the morphing az-ridge...and the foremention pac-arm....will likely shake hands....then the view for minamal adjust...via scandi/icelandi cell...become a non worthy exaction....

As the impacts keep 'raining' on the upper levels.momentum and sway...

..Are LOADED with some candy store winter probabilities..

 

 

Ssts continue to begin favorability!!

And as going....the supports look good.!

 

 

 

[danthetan]

21 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

 

Are you ok.?

[CanadaAl]

Looks to be less low pressure west of Greenland in this run. Also noticing it having a hard time modeling the track of that low in the channel. Could be the difference of rain to snow in some areas. Not focusing on much after t+100 at this point in time. So much variation between each run, not worth worrying. 

[booferking]

Gem 144hr & Ukmo 144hr look pretty good to me Gem then turns into a fully blown Easterly also the Icon looks decent as for the Gfs op looks to have went off on one lets see what the para has to say.

Edited November 17, 2018 by booferking

[Mucka]

GFS 00z certainly wont provide the excitement of yesterdays

Quite a difference over 24h

Let's hope it swings back the other way.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFS 00z certainly wont provide the excitement of yesterdays

Quite a difference over 24h

Let's hope it swings back the other way.

Props to the ECM tbh.

Still, as I've said, I'm not concerned that this progression will seemingly fail. It was all a tad too early anyway. I just hope we can keep the trop pattern suitably disturbed now until we get another chance.

[Dave Kightley]

11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS 00z certainly wont provide the excitement of yesterdays

Quite a difference over 24h

Let's hope it swings back the other way.

Looks keen for the P.V to get it act together! Maybe a signal but I would of thought abit quick just as the real cold uppers looked to have arrived but then pushed back to non existent! Hopefully the same with the P.V!

Edited November 17, 2018 by Dave Kightley

[Seasonality]

11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS 00z certainly wont provide the excitement of yesterdays

Quite a difference over 24h

Let's hope it swings back the other way.

Well yes, the GFS does tend to change sometimes on output 10 days out. Would be silly to call the matter settled either way at this juncture. Ensembles will be interesting for this run. 

[booferking]

Gfs para having another go.