Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

 Very strange set of clusters all the way through ....... time for bed methinks ...... could wake up to just about anything on the nwp!

Yes, really informative at 300 onwards - just one cluster!!!

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, markw2680 said:

I honestly can’t believe the negativity in here it’s ridiculous, these charts for the end of November are pretty damn good tbh, there’s been plenty of WINTERS where we would give anything for these kind of charts. The models chop and change like the wind! Who’s to say that tomorrow they won’t all be stonking again. They don’t call it a roller coaster for nothing.

one thing is for sure it’s going to be pretty cold next week and after all this mild crap we will certainly no about it

Indeed but some members would only settle for cold and snow and the charts are not really showing that. Other members will be happy with, dry and frosty weather. The 18Z has bought the trough over the UK back into play which means after perhaps a brighter showery couple of days, the week would turn dull, cold and at times wet, not particularly inspiring in fairness. 

On a synotopic POV, the charts are decent and got some potential and sometimes getting the blocking in the right place can be a slow and tedious process so it could be a waiting game. It may happen but theres every chance we may never get significantly cold before any Atlantic weather comes back into play. 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 Very strange set of clusters all the way through ....... time for bed methinks ...... could wake up to just about anything on the nwp!

I was thinking exactly the same thing Blue!!

The low to our SW will be a bigger player than i for one anticipated -

I know its been said a thousand times but this really is a tricky evolution for the computer models.

[Weegaz]

Temps down but still +0 at 7 days from now??

[northwestsnow]

18Z finds a decent match to the Exeter update earlier- brief Atlantic influence before the azores high ridges north to settle things down..

[booferking]

Seen worst charts in start of dec vortex up and earlier frames if we could get that low to stop blown up we could be cooking on gas.

[damianslaw]

Models today are showing a sort of winter 17/18 pattern at times, where heights held firm just to our NE, with a trough to our SW, this brought cold wintry weather at times as occurred early on in December. However, the block is forecast to be stronger and larger.

The normal pattern for late November and into December is a raging zonal westerly - we are about as far away as that can be. Trough coming unstuck if it indeed it edges into southern parts at all, probably shunted south again.

[Duane S.]

All looking all fine and dandy to me.

Saggy eastern end of the high looking increasing likely, moderating the extremity of the cold (at first at least). The ECM nearly always has a handle on this the first.

I’ve  noticed the massive differences in Pacific MJO forecasts between GFS and the ECM. I would imagine the GFS must be reacting to a new more muted signal in terms of Pacific forcing and subsequent downstream amplification than is shown here...

Compare with the ECM, chalk and cheese...

Anyway. Cold easterly next week nailed on. No sign of zonal. Oodles of potential. That’s good enough for me for now.

[tight isobar]

18z ...gfs.

The options northern hemisphericaly..are out of box...and on the table!!..

Some top-notch evo's and possibilities..

I said id 'throw up an analysis'...

But i think in short its covered...and on the privy' i won't!..

That az-ridge i keep boring you with is AGAIN-imo as massive a feature as the ever modeled pacific/eastern seabord ridge...

And with the polar shallow annom

Is enough 4 me to sit bk-and be VERY  optamistc, for gain and fruition...

Wave2..alarms are ringing...

And the morphing az-ridge...and the foremention pac-arm....will likely shake hands....then the view for minamal adjust...via scandi/icelandi cell...become a non worthy exaction....

As the impacts keep 'raining' on the upper levels.momentum and sway...

..Are LOADED with some candy store winter probabilities..

 

 

Ssts continue to begin favorability!!

And as going....the supprts look good.!

 

 

Edited November 16, 2018 by tight isobar

[snowray]

Well what can I say about the 18z? Mmm, oh I know  

..................................................................

What a difference a run makes

Six little hours

Brought the sleet and the snow showers

Where there used to be rain

...................................................................

 

Stick with the GFSp if you ask me, widespread snowfall next week and HP establishing itself around Iceland, what more could I ask for?

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

It is rock solid on the majority of runs with the spoiler low anchored to our south west. Only the ecm picked up on this originally and it has stuck to it rigidly. Will be interesting to see if it verifies. This is a classic battle royale between the ecm and the upgraded gfsp. 

Looking increasing likely that victory goes to ecm on this occasion unfortunately. 

[ALL ABOARD]

This is a big test for the new gfs para. Sticks two fingers to the GFS and ECM. I. Hope the upgrades are worth it.... 

[Mike Poole]

It is getting late now, but the FV3 T144 shows oodles of potential to me:

[Mucka]

Since that magnificent GFS 00z things have gone a bit downhill but some good news.

GFS 18z para was the closest to UKMO 144 so all not lost yet by any means.

[ALL ABOARD]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Looking increasing likely that victory goes to ecm on this occasion unfortunately. 

Ehhhhh? Are we looking at the same charts 

[Dennis]

Northmen are coming 

[karlos1983]

As has been stated, operational runs tomorrow could be anything from very cold to not so cold/mild in the D7+ range, the ENS show that quite nicely. I’ve seen a lot worse 

[booferking]

Any stats on how the para performing day 7-8 against the rest??

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Ehhhhh? Are we looking at the same charts 

We are looking at the same charts. Compare this with the gfsp 12z and you will see slow incremental gfs esq steps towards the ecm solution. 

[Derecho]

18z swingometers

A downgrade unfortunately with a number of milder runs starting to pop up and very few delivering a really cold arctic airmass our way. The cold on many runs ends up going to Russia instead.

A few colder runs here and there and the parallel appears to be sticking to its guns at T180. That at least brings some hope.

There can be no denying that things have taken a step back this evening. Yes the easterly next week may provide a wintry surprise for those at elevation but IMO we should really at the least be seeing that very cold air over Europe.

If it is way out in Russia and we get mild southerlies again it may take an awful lot to get back in this position, so lets hope a few of the milder runs cropping up don't verify.

[Mike Poole]

Holy freaking ....weather charts, FV3 at T186

WOW

[weatherguy]

It will be interesting to see whether the GFS 18z's  LP to our WSW at +216h will take a different orientation nearer to time.  It really wouldn't take much of a correction to send more energy SE, cutting off the sceuro high and advecting that lovely siberian cold.  We shall see, plenty to play for.

In the meantime, enjoy some potential frosts and some snow showers next week for the lucky ones as the anticyclone takes hold.  Certainly beats mild zonality!

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Holy freaking ....weather charts, FV3 at T186

WOW

This will either be an epic victory for the gfsp or an epic fail. I think tomorrow's runs will reveal all. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This will either be an epic victory for the gfsp or an epic fail. I think tomorrow's runs will reveal all. 

Tomorrow’s runs won’t reveal anything more than today.....next week will

 

BFTP

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

 

The reason why I think the ecm will be victor is because it has had 6 chances over the last 3 days to show a stonker of a day 9/10 chart in it's op runs. Not one has materialised. In fact, the day 9/10 charts have been underwhelming. If ecm does an about turn, it will be the biggest victory to date for the gfs v ecm.